Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

He would shit his pants if I told him how much my investment in bitcoin is worth today. He doesn't even know that I own any.

That my friend, is the way to keep it. Never let your normie friends know how rich you are

At least for me, yes.

If I was a narcissistic asshole like many of my former colleagues and some of my family members, I'd be bragging to everyone and their brother and driving around in a Lambo with a BITCOIN license plate.

But that's just not me. Can't do it. I don't need the ego stroking, and I'm way smarter than that with my money. Plus for OpSec reasons, I don't want anyone to know.

I've simply told family members that I'm early retired due to "good investing" and left it at that. They don't even know that I'm the wealthiest family member that there has ever been. They still idolize and worship the one uncle that's been in real estate his whole life, and who has gained and lost millions and is now broke and swamped with debt at the age of 75. His wife recently found out that he had secretly been taking out small equity loans against the house to give free money to his grown adult kids.  🤦 They went to sell the house recently, and he confessed to her that there was barely any equity left over after the sale. Now they have to majorly downsize, and their retirement is in jeopardy. 🤦🤦

[1715032039]

1715032039

[1715032039]

1715032039

[1715032039]

1715032039

[1715032039]

1715032039

[1715032039]

1715032039

[aysg76]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but even "legal tender" in a U.S. state would not make Federal cap gain taxes go away. And that's the big rub.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@PeterLBrandt
I find it fascinating that many (not all) on social media who wore laser eyes in Mar/Apr and predicted a rocket shot 🚀for $BTC in Nov now are predicting that the $30k level will be violated

When bulls wear laser eyes -- time to SELL
When bulls become bears -- time to BUY?

https://twitter.com/peterlbrandt/status/1487845821299105795?s=21

[Torque]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1487787717568212993

[Paashaas]

Impressive features makes me even more bullish than before.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@DocumentingBTC
You can predict the monetary policy of #Bitcoin  from now until forever.

https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1487836792049086464?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

If $33k already was the "capitulation", it was reached pretty early. Uncomfirmed, yet showing noticeable sell volume.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.

I don't know how you would presume early?

We have had nearly three months of down.. and for sure at some point it is going to need to stop, whether we see some kind of traditional reversal or something more whimpy.  That $33k that you mention represents a bit over a 52% correction.. that has been followed by an earlier 56% correction.. so that surely seems like enough down for me, and I see no reason that we need to have any kind of capitulation in order for the momentum to resume UPpity... sure anything can happen, but we do not have to have "down before up."

In other words, there does not have to be capitulation for the bottom to be "in" - even though some peeps do appreciate a more clear sign that the bottom is "in" but that is NOT always how price dynamics play out in bitcoinlandia.

Right, sure it's not always how price dynamics play out.
I presumed early, in terms of the ol' cycle blowoff/long lasting bear grind down like 2017-2019. The market dynamics turned nuts in 2021, china exiting, ecologic mining FUD. "This time it's different", you remember?  
Either way, it would be a good level to go up from here, maybe sideways first, until investors are convinced it's "safe" to put their money onto the table (again).
Another assumption: The higher the price, the less steep the climbs. The higher the "tops", the higher the "lows". Unless no more market shaking events happen in the near future, BTC is ready to go (again) from here. SOMA, IMHO

@DocumentingBTC
You can predict the monetary policy of #Bitcoin  from now until forever.

https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1487836792049086464?s=21

I see some problems here, especially with rising energy prices. Miners have to stay profitable to keep going.
Well, we also know the difficulty algo, which takes care of drastic changes in global hashpower, and we have observed how flexible miners are when they are forced to change (location, primary energy sources, integration). Mass adoption is decoupled from the mainnet via lightning, so i expect the network and Bitcoin as a currency to persist, while success is not guaranteed. Additionally, i always remind myself that it keeps winning for more than a decade, against all odds that the conventional financial system called out within this timespan. We truly live in interesting times.

[JayJuanGee]

@JayJuanGee @ImThour

Fuck the debating lets all agree that we all want to see Bitcoin continue to rise and we all get stinking rich that we have fuck you status

Explanation

WRONG WAY CHARTBUDDY...

There are always going to be debates in these here parts, and even some of us guys who agree quite a bit on a variety of matters will get into pretty serious debates and sometimes devolve into personal attacks.. sure I am not advocating personal attacks but sometimes matters go in that direction..and maybe even for good reason.

Also, sometimes on a personal level I come to a conclusion that some members in these here parts are acting in bad faith or in disingenuine ways, and sometimes with the passage of time, I come to change my mind about them.. but  I am not going to shy away from attacking members who sometimes might show these kinds of tendencies.. I have been attacked in the same way, and I don't necessarily find it problematic because I believe my post history speaks for itself.. and sure, I will concede that there are sometimes that I do go at a member a bit stronger than warranted.. but I am not willing to concede that my recent going at ImThour is not warranted.. at least not so far, even if he has put out a few seemingly bullish /informative posts in recent times.

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house of a house that was inherited.

I have thought about this for a long time.

If you have no family depending on you and you do not have a partner it is a good idea. Sell the house for $300k buy a small camper van to live in so I am not homeless and travel the country by setting aside 10k by the time I have traveled all states I would probably profited by at least 1.5x.

280k x 1.5 = 420k

that is the minimum i think it rises it probably would be 2x

I could move into a house bigger then I have now for  1-2 years of living in a camper van. I would not need a mortgage and if a short time I would have improved my lifestyle forever

I am not going to completely poo poo your idea, but there is likely some need to consider the matter in a more broad way - because ONLY so many people will be in a position to be able to do something like what you are suggesting.

I do believe; however, there is quite a bit of value in engaging in a variety of ways to calculate ways that you can be relatively aggressive during the period in which you are accumulating BTC - but the period of aggressive BTC accumulation could well last over 10 years.,. sure, some people might be in a position to aggressively accumulate in a year or two but again, we should attempt to be considering a large percentage of the population when we are considering ways to shave some of our costs or to increase our income in order that we can accumulate bitcoin.  

Another thing is that a house may well not be a bad place to put value, even though surely some people are over-housed depending on where they are in life so some people do get way more burdened by owning a house than they are benefitted - but in the whole scheme of things, real estate is not a bad place to hold some of your value... even while you might be in the process of aggressively accumulating BTC.

By the way funsponge, even if we look at your timeline specifically, you have been registered on the forum for about the same amount of time as me, so I am pretty familiar with how bitcoin has performed during that time, but for sure, I cannot really know your personal circumstances.. so maybe you might not have been in a position to accumulate a lot of BTC in your early days registered on the forum.. but even a $10 per week accumulation might have put you in a pretty decent position with around 3 BTC currently, depending on how consistent that you might have been in your ongoing BTC accumulation, and of course, a $100 per week could have put you in the ballpark of around 30 BTC currently.. which surely would not be a bad place to be.  

So part of my point is that with bitcoin historically serving as such an asymmetric bet to the upside there have been ways for any of us to have been able to put ourselves in a pretty decent financial/psychological position without necessarily going to extremes.. and really I do not assess bitcoin as a worse investment currently as it was in early 2014.. even though some of the Upside has been taken away with our around 50x in the market cap during that time.... In past year and a half or so, I have been telling people to minimally start investing into bitcoin with $100 per week, even though historically I had asserted that they should minimally start with $10 per week.  I do understand that not everyone is able to afford $100 per week, so each of us should be doing what we can... and if we have been in bitcoin for several years, then at least we already have some kind of a bitcoin base, even if we have not yet reached our BTC accumulation targets or something like what we might consider as fuck you status.... but we also can recognize that even if we made a lot of mistakes along the way and we might only hold less than 5 BTC, but even 5 BTC is likely to constitute fuck you status within the next couple of 4-year cycles...

In some sense, I am merely suggesting that merely engaging in ongoing BTC accumulation does not necessarily require going on limbs such as selling your house, even though there could be some practicality for some people to go down such a road, especially if they have some mobile aspects like you mentioned... and especially if they might feel that they are not really losing anything by going mobile for a few years (I believe a minimum of 4 years remains a good framework when thinking about any lump sum investment into BTC that any of us might have made - no guarantees, either)  while they continue to accumulate BTC and also let their purchase of BTC (from the proceeds of their house presumable) play out.

[xhomerx10]

That my friend, is the way to keep it. Never let your normie friends know how rich you are

This is exactly the reason why I lost my friends.

Now my friends are my family.

and

 This tweet makes no sense; the Russo-Ukranian war began nearly 8 years ago and is still ongoing.  Also, exactly what problem would we be part of?
Considering that we hodlers are gleefully protecting our assets from that very thing - control of our money by a central authority while speculating on the demise of the current system for any and every reason - I guess we're all guilty as charged by C∅bra.  I'm not about to swap my bitcoin for dollars just in case some other banking cartels pile a few more sanctions on Russia and my wealth is preserved so colour me horrible I suppose.  I actively implore others to buy bitcoin today as well.  Be horrible! Buy Bitcoin!  Somberly if possible, gleefully if you must - just don't tweet about it; it's best kept a secret.

[OutOfMemory]

That my friend, is the way to keep it. Never let your normie friends know how rich you are

This is exactly the reason why I lost my friends.

Now my friends are my family.

and

 This tweet makes no sense; the Russo-Ukranian war began nearly 8 years ago and is still ongoing.  Also, exactly what problem would we be part of?
Considering that we hodlers are gleefully protecting our assets from that very thing - control of our money by a central authority while speculating on the demise of the current system for any and every reason - I guess we're all guilty as charged by C∅bra.  I'm not about to swap my bitcoin for dollars just in case some other banking cartels pile a few more sanctions on Russia and my wealth is preserved so colour me horrible I suppose.  I actively implore others to buy bitcoin today as well.  Be horrible! Buy Bitcoin!  Somberly if possible, gleefully if you must - just don't tweet about it; it's best kept a secret.

I disagree.
Cobra is very specific here and does not generally address hodlers.
If you don't get excited about Russia (i mean 99% people like me and you) getting excluded from a pseudo-standard financial transactions network, just because it could result in a price rise of Bitcoin, you're absolutely not included in this rant.
It's almost the same like having supported the war in irak because of expectations that the dollar would rise in the face of a booming arms industry, imho.
Please tell me you're not that type. If you aren't, you are not getting adressed by this tweet in any way.

EDIT: Re-reading that tweet after posting i see Cobra's last sentence being clear AF regarding the addressed audience.

EDIT2: Remember, most of the germans were shouting for WW2 because they expected more wealth from it. That's a very low motive in terms of humanity, isn't it?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@PeterLBrandt
I find it fascinating that many (not all) on social media who wore laser eyes in Mar/Apr and predicted a rocket shot 🚀for $BTC in Nov now are predicting that the $30k level will be violated

When bulls wear laser eyes -- time to SELL
When bulls become bears -- time to BUY?

https://twitter.com/peterlbrandt/status/1487845821299105795?s=21

I have not been much of a fan of PeterBrandt - even though despite a bit of the generalized judgementalism, he has a decent point here.

If $33k already was the "capitulation", it was reached pretty early. Uncomfirmed, yet showing noticeable sell volume.
Feels bullish somehow.
Have a good #hodlsleep.

I don't know how you would presume early?

We have had nearly three months of down.. and for sure at some point it is going to need to stop, whether we see some kind of traditional reversal or something more whimpy.  That $33k that you mention represents a bit over a 52% correction.. that has been followed by an earlier 56% correction.. so that surely seems like enough down for me, and I see no reason that we need to have any kind of capitulation in order for the momentum to resume UPpity... sure anything can happen, but we do not have to have "down before up."

In other words, there does not have to be capitulation for the bottom to be "in" - even though some peeps do appreciate a more clear sign that the bottom is "in" but that is NOT always how price dynamics play out in bitcoinlandia.

Right, sure it's not always how price dynamics play out.
I presumed early, in terms of the ol' cycle blowoff/long lasting bear grind down like 2017-2019. The market dynamics turned nuts in 2021, china exiting, ecologic mining FUD. "This time it's different", you remember?  

I do sense that you are ongoingly feeling that BTC has been overly suppressed.. and "we should be at x price rather than some fraction of x"

It is what it is, no?   I mean who is to say that there ways a, b, c and d reasons for the BTC price being lower than expected, and if a, b, c and d did not exist, there would be other reasons.. We cannot really know, so we just go with the punches, no?

Bearwhales or whatever you want to call them, are going to attempt to take advantage of whatever they have going in their favor to continue to push the BTC price down for as long as they can and as low as they can get it to go, and for sure, they appreciate when weak hands cooperate because in that sense they do not have to use as many of their coins and/or resources because even though some of them might appear to have unlimited resources, such as infinitely printing money, there are likely even costs to some of their seemingly infinite resources.

I don't see the matter to be much different than previously in the sense that we continue to have attempts to push the BTC price down and attempt to cause HODLers to lose faith in HODLing... The main difference remains that the players are BIGGER and it takes more resources and financial instruments/tools to shake the weak hands from their coins.. and yeah, if there is an appearance that the 4-year fractal is broken or an appearance that stock to flow is broken then more weak hands can be shook from their coins...

Maybe an important question remains regarding the extent to which BTC prices can continue to be kept down for the next month, two or three months?  Sure the longer that bearwhales are able to keep the price down, the more that confidence is lost, but I really doubt that their resources are infinite and at some point they run out of coins and they cannot keep this bad boy down any more... And, I am not even proclaiming that I know the result of our current battle... because even though I presume that we are still in a bull market and there are slightly favorable odds towards UP rather than DOWN, it is not like I am betting the farm on odds that are maybe only slightly over 50%, at this time.  So most of us know that even the minority scenario may well end up playing out, which maybe we are already here in a kind of a minority scenario.. which truly adds to the loss of confidence of some BTC HODLers. but still does not mean that the bull market might not end up prevailing even if it could take a month, two months or three months to resolve the BTC price location battle that we are currently in.

Either way, it would be a good level to go up from here, maybe sideways first, until investors are convinced it's "safe" to put their money onto the table (again).

Sure... that's part of the frame, too.

Another assumption: The higher the price, the less steep the climbs. The higher the "tops", the higher the "lows". Unless no more market shaking events happen in the near future, BTC is ready to go (again) from here. SOMA, IMHO

Of course, we have a dynamic in bitcoin in which the keeping of momentum can really play in favor of whichever side has the momentum... so if the momentum turns to the upside, then the momentum could end up carrying the price to places that are further than what seems to be rational.... so yeah cannot really disagree that as bitcoin's market cap gets BIGGER and BIGGER, it takes a lot more capital to push up the BTC price, yet we also have various potentialities for the confluence of events in which a lot of folks (retail and institutions) continue to take coins off of exchanges, so there are fewer coins to work with in terms of determining the BTC price, and so there could be some confluence of events that cause there to NOT be enough coins available - even if we might already have strong (sand likely true) suspicions that there are a decent number of entities faking the number of coins that they have - but even some of the faking of coins could end up blowing up in their face too under certain circumstances - including some kind of outrageous exponential rise of the BTC price and then their clients want the coins or want the value of the coins, and the third party has hardly any coins to satisfy such demands that they were faking that they had in their possession.. It is not a straight forward gamble, even for some entities who create the appearance that they have infinite resources when they might not have as many resources as they are making it seem that they have.

[Biodom]

nobody put much stock in what presidential order/directive means? it's supposedly coming next week.

 ..regulate..regulate..regulate.
imho, if they do, it would be more of a "command and control" economy that we would like to admit.

[xhomerx10]

That my friend, is the way to keep it. Never let your normie friends know how rich you are

This is exactly the reason why I lost my friends.

Now my friends are my family.

and

 This tweet makes no sense; the Russo-Ukranian war began nearly 8 years ago and is still ongoing.  Also, exactly what problem would we be part of?
Considering that we hodlers are gleefully protecting our assets from that very thing - control of our money by a central authority while speculating on the demise of the current system for any and every reason - I guess we're all guilty as charged by C∅bra.  I'm not about to swap my bitcoin for dollars just in case some other banking cartels pile a few more sanctions on Russia and my wealth is preserved so colour me horrible I suppose.  I actively implore others to buy bitcoin today as well.  Be horrible! Buy Bitcoin!  Somberly if possible, gleefully if you must - just don't tweet about it; it's best kept a secret.

I disagree.
Cobra is very specific here and does not generally address hodlers.
If you don't get excited about Russia (i mean 99% people like me and you) getting excluded from a pseudo-standard financial transactions network, just because it could result in a price rise of Bitcoin, you're absolutely not included in this rant.
It's almost the same like having supported the war in irak because of expectations that the dollar would rise in the face of a booming arms industry, imho.
Please tell me you're not that type. If you aren't, you are not getting adressed by this tweet in any way.

EDIT: Re-reading that tweet after posting i see Cobra's last sentence being clear AF regarding the addressed audience.

EDIT2: Remember, most of the germans were shouting for WW2 because they expected more wealth from it. That's a very low motive in terms of humanity, isn't it?

   According to the tweet, the horrible human beings are the ones "gleefully" speculating that a Russia-Ukraine war (which as I pointed out has been going on for 8 years) will result in Russia being removed from SWIFT and subsequently adopting bitcoin as a settlement layer.  The one's who's first thought about war in Ukraine is, "Yay! Bitcoin goes up." are "part of the problem".   I'm asking, what "problem"?  There is no way in hell that a few bitcoiners "thinking" bad thoughts have any impact on a potential escalation of the current conflict between Russia and the Ukraine.   So it's not clear AF to me.

[becoin]

That my friend, is the way to keep it. Never let your normie friends know how rich you are

This is exactly the reason why I lost my friends.

Now my friends are my family.

and

This tweet makes no sense; the Russo-Ukranian war began nearly 8 years ago and is still ongoing.  Also, exactly what problem would we be part of?

It is not about Russia vs Ukraine. It has never been. It is all about USA vs Russia. Ukraine was annexed by the US in 2014 and seized to exist as independent state 8 years ago.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation