Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714209291]

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[d_eddie]

There's the making of a haiku in there....

Making a haiku
"I think, therefore I bitcoin"
Tyler Winklevoss



#haiku

[cAPSLOCK]

The Bitfinex thieves (or at least the ones that ended up with the coins):

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-arrested-alleged-conspiracy-launder-45-billion-stolen-cryptocurrency

[img=100]https://i.imgur.com/F0b5MCB.png[/img]

[img=100]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLFvBNuXMAAyztw.jpg[/img]

The most interesting thing to me here is confirmation that the feds are taking an interest in financial criminal activity the crypto/Bitcoin world.

It also shows something else too.

Shitcoiners want to rail on btc for being pseudo anonymous and for transactions being traceable. But it's a feature, not a bug. I guarantee you that if it truly weren't, the governments of the world would have made a concerted effort long ago to declare Bitcoin illegal. In some ways, it is Bitcoin's saving grace in terms of governments and corporations embracing and adopting it.

You see a lot of people railing against bitcoin because of that.  But I have a theory.  There are two kinds of people who take that postion:

1.  Alt-coiners (usually the ones bitter they "missed" bitcoin")
2.  Bitcoiners who are rich enough for them to "become principled".

That second group is something I have seen over and over.  it is as if early adopters made crazy huge amounts of USD value and then saw all the new Bitcoinners acting like greedy speculators exactly as they had in a previous cycle.  And they can now point their finger because, well what's the difference between a 50mm windfall, and a 300mm one? Either way they are set.  Now they can ride a high horse and be rich at the same time

Roger did it.  Junseth and Derose kind of did it... and so on.  I honestly think people feel guilty for getting rich and project that guilt on others to feel better about themselves.

Perhaps I am being too judgemental.  I am now seeing the Samourai folks and some other privacy/security curmudgeons complaining about NGU at all costs.  And perhaps they are truly just principled, but I do think a lot of these folks are in the "can ride a high horse now" category.

[Copetech]

There's the making of a haiku in there....

Making a haiku
"I think, therefore I bitcoin"
Tyler Winklevoss



#haiku

Trying too hard bro...
The Words are all included.
Just typing it out:

Tyler Winklevoss
"I think, therefore I Biltcoin."
Twitter for iPhone

#haiku#haiku

[OutOfMemory]

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully they are vaccinated and thus the impact will be minimal. If not then hopefully the hospitals in your neighborhood are past the peak admissions from January.

Yes, but I’m not vaccinated, because until now it seemed to me that this was just a convention ...

As a heavy smoker, I have severe shortness of breath in the mornings and evenings .... so for the most part I worry that my already deplorable lung condition will get worse (although I have not yet taken a test). No matter how stupid it may sound, my subconscious will feel better if it does not know about the diagnosis and will position the current state as a common cold, (although I admit I feel inner anxiety).

PM.

Unvaccinated tend to be the milder cases when it comes to Omicron. This has a scientific reason which i pointed out in Bob's vaxxing thread, probably a few days ago.

EDIT:

My try:

post covid today
quarantine for six more days
eyeballs still hurting

vision still blurry
I'm used to have bloodshot eyes
used to go away

haikus work again
got me a bit worried first
but now it seems fine

#postcovidhaiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting on the breaking news from Russia:




@ProfaneBenni
BREAKING: If reports are to be believed, #Russia is planning to recognise #cryptocurrencies as currencies. It's incredibly #bullish news.
I delved a little deeper. Here's what we know right now. Thread. 1/

https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313537092034563?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
The report circulating on #Twitter is sourced from the @kommersant newspaper.
According to #Wikipedia, Kommersant is a nationally distributed Russian paper with a daily circulation of 100000+ in 2013. It is devoted to covering politics and business. So it is legit. 2/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313555475673089?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
Here are the most important parts of the report. "The government and the Bank of Russia have agreed on a future regime for the circulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia: by February 18, they will prepare a draft law on the circulation of digital currencies in the Russian..." 3/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313558801756163?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
... Federation, in which cryptocurrencies are recognized as an analogue of currencies, and not digital financial assets (DFA)." 4/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313561427054592?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
"Their circulation in the legal sector will be possible only with full identification, through the banking system or licensed intermediaries." 5/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313573997715462?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
"... fines will be introduced for the illegal acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment."
This implies that crypto will be a legal means of payment in Russia. And illegal acceptance will invite legal action. 6/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313579370631170?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
 "... evasion of declaring transactions with cryptocurrency will become a criminal offense, and its use will become an aggravating circumstance in other offenses." 7/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313594050686976?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
"The possession of cryptocurrency in the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation and transactions with it are not prohibited - but only through the "organizer of the digital currency exchange system" (a bank with a universal license) or a p2p exchanger legalized in the ..." 8/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313601717882880?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
"... Russian Federation."
"So far, the most intriguing is the organization of the legalization of the existing undeclared cryptocurrency, which is not described in the concept." 9/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313604851007488?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
"The Ministry of Finance's estimate of the total amount of crypto assets in the Russian Federation has not changed - it is 12 million crypto wallets with assets worth 2 trillion rubles."
This is equivalent to around 26,711,184,000 USD. 10/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313618713190401?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
Previously, The Bank of Russia had expressed its disapproval of cryptocurrencies and called for an outright ban. However, Vladimir #Putin then went on record to outline Russia's advantages in #Bitcoin  mining. 11/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313621993156613?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
Putin is the indisputable ruler of Russia. His opinion could have been expected to prevail. It seems like it did. #NATO and the #US have been mulling over sanctions on Russia over their militaristic overtures in #Ukraine. 12/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313641169514497?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
There were talks of plans to remove Russia from the SWIFT payment system. So Putin could be looking for a way to sidestep the dollar and the conventional payment system. What better than Bitcoin! 13/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313646815035393?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
Consider Russia's massive #oil and gas reserves, among other natural resources, and you have the perfect recipe for a Bitcoin mining powerhouse. The Kommersant report says that decisions are still to be made on the subject of mining. Let's wait and watch. 14/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313664829591555?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
Now we wait for further corroboration from other news sources about this exceedingly bullish news. Few would have actually expected a country as powerful as Russia to come onboard the Bitcoin wagon so early. Even though it makes all the sense in the world. 15/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313669757890560?s=21


@ProfaneBenni
Game theory is working. Russia may be going all in.
Your move, US. 16/
https://twitter.com/profanebenni/status/1491313685943689220?s=21

I am not sure if Russia will be able to keep bitcoin under wraps as much as those various law announcements seem to require.  Russia is saying that using bitcoin is o.k. so long as you do it under their rules and through their official systems... but if you try to use bitcoin as it was intended (for kinds of private peer to peer transactions), then that would not be legal.

Good luck with that.  

Of course, the Russian govt likely knows their people and culture way better than some kind of outsider like yours truly - yet I am thinking that maybe the Russian govt feels that they have to frame their laws of "opening up to bitcoin" in those kinds of ways just to kind of keep some potential level of control over the whole thing?

From what little I know, I still have my doubts about the extent to which Russians are complying kinds of people (culture).  They seem to be the opposite.  They do not really like to follow rules, and so maybe that is why the Russia Govt has to appear so tough? We will see how it plays out, and I doubt that a government can ONLY make bitcoin acceptable for the elites and rule followers to the extent that they seem to have some target audience of "model citizens" that they are considering would follow the dictates.

[savetherainforest]

[...]

Of course, the Russian govt likely knows their people and culture way better than some kind of outsider like yours truly

[...]

Russian mentality be like:

I pick axe for woods,
I hit you in the head,
And then you die. Suka!


             


*edit(): There is also some spitting and kicking of the dead body after that, but that is just 'post mortem satisfaction' cuz dog is dead.

[El duderino_]

Fuck... covid got to my family.

I'm just getting rid of it...

Stay safe

[d_eddie]

post covid today
quarantine for six more days
eyeballs still hurting


#postcovidhaiku

Coronavirus!
As long as it's the eyeballs
Other balls hurt moar


#haiku
#haikurts

[cAPSLOCK]

Good Lord, almighty.  We do live in a damned simulation.  Nothing else makes any sense.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1491435447423496194?s=20&t=Ow1eFbUkG4908SfgxGYQ1w

[El duderino_]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxXrtoZh6_k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUC1QA5gRcU

Maximum Off Topic, Maximum Loving It.

Watch them for general wisdom.

[cAPSLOCK]

I am sorry for all of you getting hit by Covid.  Hospital data shows that the recent variants are little more than a bad cold.  And even the prior bad ones have >99% survival rate for all but the very old or multiple comorbidities.  If you have a couple comorbidities you should see healthcare if you ever have trouble breathing.  Otherwise, statistically you are going to be fine.  And the current variants are God's own vaccine.



But.  Bitcoin.  Oh my God.  I cannot believe we are here.

The only fear I have right now is, as an American, our stupid government is more likely to knee jerk and fuck up than I would like to think.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Upcoming Apple iPhone feature to give merchants a way to accept crypto payments.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/upcoming-apple-iphone-feature-to-give-merchants-a-way-to-accept-crypto-payments

Surely there are some benefits with ease of use, and for sure there is going to be ongoing interest (whether from the merchant or customer) regarding whether there are ways to reduce fees.. and I would imagine that anything going through Apple pay is going to have some kind of fee.. and maybe Apple will be inspired to lower their fees in the event that there is meaningful/significant competition... ..., an advantage of the device maker, and for sure Apple can be a bit stingy when allowing third parties to use features built into their device.. and whether third parties need to request permission might inspire the use of other devices (taking away some of the incentive of having to carry several devices rather than just one)...

Was a billionaire yesterday...

Q:
How it’s possible they were so stupid to keep their private key on plain text on a cloud service?

A:

They were no less stupid than the average cryptocurrency investor who keeps his coins on CEX, online wallet, or cloud/email. A fool who has an empty wallet and a fool who has 100 000 BTC in a crypto wallet are still fools who face the same fate. They could have lived like kings all their lives and stayed under the radar, but it still required intelligence they obviously did not have.

The more that we find out, the more implausible the whole story seems -... yet we do know that some dumb peeps do exist in this world, but somehow they might end up coming across fortunes of BTC or some other cryptos.  Something is missing in this story in terms of transferring online and into one wallet rather than maybe having some coins spread in various other places..

[goldkingcoiner]

*tweet quotes from the same guy with 323 followers*

I am not sure if Russia will be able to keep bitcoin under wraps as much as those various law announcements seem to require.  Russia is saying that using bitcoin is o.k. so long as you do it under their rules and through their official systems... but if you try to use bitcoin as it was intended (for kinds of private peer to peer transactions), then that would not be legal.

Good luck with that.  

Of course, the Russian govt likely knows their people and culture way better than some kind of outsider like yours truly - yet I am thinking that maybe the Russian govt feels that they have to frame their laws of "opening up to bitcoin" in those kinds of ways just to kind of keep some potential level of control over the whole thing?

From what little I know, I still have my doubts about the extent to which Russians are complying kinds of people (culture).  They seem to be the opposite.  They do not really like to follow rules, and so maybe that is why the Russia Govt has to appear so tough? We will see how it plays out, and I doubt that a government can ONLY make bitcoin acceptable for the elites and rule followers to the extent that they seem to have some target audience of "model citizens" that they are considering would follow the dictates.

I think the same goes for the whole world. Even China. Legal, illegal, that does not matter. Bitcoiners won't give up being Bitcoiners. If anything this "Russia wants to adopt Bitcoin" fud LCB is doing great things for the Bitcoin price already.

Fuck... covid got to my family.

I'm just getting rid of it...

Stay safe

Stay safe, stay healthy.

All Omicron did to me is an ear infection which somehow turned into tooth pain. Seriously WTF.

The next 24 hours are absolutely critical

Russian mentality be like:

I pick axe for woods,
I hit you in the head,
And then you die. Suka!


             


*edit(): There is also some spitting and kicking of the dead body after that, but that is just 'post mortem satisfaction' cuz dog is dead.

Kinda cringed reading that.

[JayJuanGee]

Also, notice that spot price has (almost) never dropped below 200WMA, and, instead, has consistently stayed well above it,

BTC/USD 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) Indicator



Graph source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

I agree with everything you said and even your framework - however, there is something not quite correct about an assertion like this:

"spot price has (almost) never dropped below 200WMA, and, instead, has consistently stayed well above it"

technically you are correct, but it seems that each of us should maintain some level of guard regarding both how close BTC spot price has come to (or below) the 200 WMA, and how it might do so in the future.

We can also see from the chart (and link) that you provided that there have been a few times in recent times in which BTC spot prices had either come close to the 200WMA or had gone below.  Almost the whole of 2015 was one of those periods, several months between December 2018 and March 2019 was another period, and finally our liquidity event of March 2020 had about two weeks of such closeness (and even 10 days or so below the 200 WMA.

For sure, the 200 WMA seems to be a quite solid way of considering how much of a cushion that any of us are likely to have in terms of how low the BTC price might go, and how long it might stay in such doldrums.. .,. and so in that regard, we likely should be prepared that they BTC price could go that low and could stay that low for a while (such as nearly a year in the 2015 case), and maybe it is not too likely that we are going to get another year like 2015, I surely would not rule it out... even though I agree with you that the 200 WMA is a pretty damned decent grounding regarding both extremes lows and feasibility regarding how long that there  might last - in the event that some kind of fatal flaw is not found in Bitcoin - which is seeming less and less likely with the passage of time....

As you may well recall, there are some guys who believe that the 200 WMA is something that a guy could profitably trade off of - and surely, Raja_MBZ is one of those who proclaims to have sold all of his BTC around $55k around May 2021.. and he had been waiting and waiting and waiting to buy back when the spot price meets the 200 WMA.. which seems considerably nutso to a lot of us and it also seems a bit too greedy and even emphasizing BTC's downside rather than UPside... so yeah for some of us guys including you AlcoHoDL who are not trading off the 200 WMA, we can recognize that the 200 WMA represents amongst the low of the lows.. and sure we might not even be waiting that long to buy BTC.. if we were going to be buying on the way down.. but hopefully also we would be somewhat careful selling any BTC between the 100 WMA and the 200 WMA (by the way the 100 WMA is currently just shy of $32k.

Of course, the longer that we are in BTC the more likely we are already to be quite profitable in our BTC, even if we are using the 200WMA and/or the 100WMA as our measures of our BTC portfolio value.. so at some point, we might not give too many shits even if spot price is approaching either of those two values, even though we likely realize that we are much better off to be cashing out some BTC when the BTC spot price is several times higher than either of those two values.... part of the reason why I consider some prudence for guys to take a wee bit of value off the table when we start to get several multiples above the 200WMA.. and especially if we actually do get around a magnitude above the 200WMA (which has happened historically, and it is not clear whether it will continue to happen).. and we need not take a lot of value off the table in order to provide some insurance to our BTC portfolio.  

Of course, guys are also free to ride out the waves in BTC price... and just wait before they get above their projected level of FU status before the start shaving off any BTC from their holdings  - or if they might have other ways of managing their BTC once getting close to their entry-level FU status or exceeding it.


Next topic.  Regarding current spot price:  with $44,738 in the past 15 minutes as I type this post, it seems possible that we could be testing and exceeding our current local high of $45,501 (maybe in the coming hours^tm?).. and surely thereafter getting in the $46k to $50k range.. which at that point (if we end up getting there), I am going to have a decent amount of confidence that our current local bottom of $32,951 is in.. I am not quite comfortable to believe that our bottom is in, currently, even though with our ongoing UP price pressures it seems that the odds to be getting pretty damned decent that our bottom is in.

[xhomerx10]

Fuck... covid got to my family.

 Hope everyone will be fine.  Keep them hydrated and make them rest.

[Torque]

Was a billionaire yesterday...

Q:
How it’s possible they were so stupid to keep their private key on plain text on a cloud service?

A:

They were no less stupid than the average cryptocurrency investor who keeps his coins on CEX, online wallet, or cloud/email. A fool who has an empty wallet and a fool who has 100 000 BTC in a crypto wallet are still fools who face the same fate. They could have lived like kings all their lives and stayed under the radar, but it still required intelligence they obviously did not have.

The more that we find out, the more implausible the whole story seems -... yet we do know that some dumb peeps do exist in this world, but somehow they might end up coming across fortunes of BTC or some other cryptos.  Something is missing in this story in terms of transferring online and into one wallet rather than maybe having some coins spread in various other places..

I lol'ed

https://twitter.com/Cryptofung/status/1491235352195272706

[cAPSLOCK]

The more that we find out, the more implausible the whole story seems -... yet we do know that some dumb peeps do exist in this world, but somehow they might end up coming across fortunes of BTC or some other cryptos.  Something is missing in this story in terms of transferring online and into one wallet rather than maybe having some coins spread in various other places..

The only way i can try to shoehorn sense into this one is she has synesthesia, which means she is likely autistic which would explain both the really odd art/communication style, and could also account for an unusual ability to manipulate computer systems.

But yeah...  even that sounds like craziness, really.  Something/someone else has to have been involved.