Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

I notice a strange pattern:  Every Saturday about 0500 GMT post volumes and trade volumes diminish substatially.  Most perplexing.

[NewLiberty]

Does anyone has a explanation why we did have a 15-25$ spread between the western and the asian exchanges in the last 2-3 weeks?
Haven´t we been mostly equal before?

More people selling in China than elsewhere where more coins are probably being bought up?  Just a guess.

There should be at least a theoretical possibility for doin arbitrage between the exchanges which would remove almost all of the difference after a few days autmatically.

Theory and practice are the same in theory, but different in practice.
Do it yourself if you think there is money there.

[aminorex]

What is the break-even on mined coins right now?

For myself it's about $103

Switch mined scrypt exchanged to btc?  Or dragonminer merge mined?

[dropt]

For myself it's about $103

Switch mined scrypt exchanged to btc?  Or dragonminer merge mined?

No, BTC ASICs.  Antminer S1 @ BTCGuild.

[aminorex]

No, BTC ASICs.

I disbelieve that you are amortizing the hardware and accounting for exponential difficulty.

[dropt]

No, BTC ASICs.

What do you pay per kwh?  I am suddenly excited about mining again.  Been not tacking this number for too long,

~0.08 kWhr, but it's more like $0.15 after all the BS delivery charges.

[ShroomsKit]

At 600 it's hoooly shit omg panic sell because of a maybe ban by China. At 500 it's np to own coins. Ban or not.
Now we have to wait for the next rumour or fake tweet and people will repeat the same ritual and we'll be at 400 and the idiot bears here will be crying how we need to hit 300 because of cheap coins. Or because they missed their waaaay too low buy order.
People are complete idiots.
I ask again. What will make these bears and panic sellers happy? 1 dollar coins? Because right now that's is exactly what you idiots are trying to achieve with this behaviour.

Yes i just woke up and i'm grumpy as hell.

[fonzie]

A fixed price 1 coin = 1$ with 5 Mio BTC walls on 0.99$ and 1.01$ might attract the masses and bring more adoption as it would be easy to remember and guarantee stability. Maybe that´s the goal of the bears. Prepare for the worst shroomskit.
Panic... sheeep.. you know

[JorgeStolfi]

Who knows, perhaps there is only one arbitrage algorithm working between China and the West, with the exchange rate "6.10" hard-coded, and the owner did not notice that it has changed. 

Doubtful the guy would not notice someone arbing his coins away

That possibility seems rather unlikely, but since we are discussing it...

I don't  see how he would notice the error.  Say, his robot would buy some coins at Huobi for less than 6100 CNY and sell them at Bitstamp for more than 1000 USD; that way he would make more proft than he thought, but his robot would miss some opportunities: buying at 6180 would still be profitable but the robot would not think so.  Or, conversely, the robot buys at slightly less than 1000 at Bitstamp and sells for slightly more than 6100 at Huobi; then he is actually losing money, but will only notice if/when he tries to withdraw any excess CNY at Huobi and exchange them for USD at the banks --- which he doesn't have to, since he can rebalance the two accounts by moving bitcoins, at the artificial rate of 6.10 CNY/USD that he himself established.

Note that once the coins are sold, he will not know or care about what happens to them; even if they are bought by another arbitrage robot who sells them back at the other exchange.  (Trading fees will probably prevent a runaway loop there.)

So, on the balance, I think his buggy robot would just miss some opportunities, which a competitor could exploit; but he may never notice that. 

[BBmodBB]

At 600 it's hoooly shit omg panic sell because of a maybe ban by China. At 500 it's np to own coins. Ban or not.
Now we have to wait for the next rumour or fake tweet and people will repeat the same ritual and we'll be at 400 and the idiot bears here will be crying how we need to hit 300 because of cheap coins. Or because they missed their waaaay too low buy order.
People are complete idiots.
I ask again. What will make these bears and panic sellers happy? 1 dollar coins? Because right now that's is exactly what you idiots are trying to achieve with this behaviour.

Yes i just woke up and i'm grumpy as hell.

420>>>next support $250 then we will see the wild freekin' west once again! =) ~jmho!

[billyjoeallen]

Why is the price going up? The Chinese are executing bitcoiners. The IRS is going to audit everybody and charge us with tax fraud. Warren Buffet is going to pour coke on us and make us swallow Gillette razorblades.! Everybody sell on margin!!!!!!!

[johnny211]

I don't  see how he would notice the error.  Say, his robot would buy some coins at Huobi for less than 6100 CNY and sell them at Bitstamp for more than 1000 USD; that way he would make more proft than he thought, but his robot would miss some opportunities: buying at 6180 would still be profitable but the robot would not think so.  Or, conversely, the robot buys at slightly less than 1000 at Bitstamp and sells for slightly more than 6100 at Huobi; then he is actually losing money, but will only notice if/when he tries to withdraw any excess CNY at Huobi and exchange them for USD at the banks --- which he doesn't have to, since he can rebalance the two accounts by moving bitcoins, at the artificial rate of 6.10 CNY/USD that he himself established.

Note that once the coins are sold, he will not know or care about what happens to them; even if they are bought by another arbitrage robot who sells them back at the other exchange.  (Trading fees will probably prevent a runaway loop there.)

So, on the balance, I think his buggy robot would just miss some opportunities, which a competitor could exploit; but he may never notice that. 

Yeah, this makes sense. But I don't see how he could rebalance the accounts by moving bitcoin. Fiat will accumulate where the coin price is higher, converting it back to bitcoin would erase the profit and bring the operation back to break-even, no?

[NewLiberty]

This dump has weak volume compared to the last two, and seems to be running out of steam.

[fonzie]

More adoption

https://southerncomarijuana.com/


"Grown with Love. Powered by Bitcoin"

[surfer43]

More adoption

<scam removed>


"Grown with Love. Powered by Bitcoin"

Please stop spreading this scam.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NewLiberty]

More adoption

<scam removed>


"Grown with Love. Powered by Bitcoin"

Please stop spreading this scam.

I think he saw this:

420>>>next support $250 then we will see the wild freekin' west once again! =) ~jmho!

And thought that the "420 support" was inviting him?

[aminorex]

Hashing straight sha256 into btc, paying 7 btc for a dragonminer, exponential difficulty never breaks even  at 0.1$/kwh.  And that is the most cost-effective hardware you can buy.  Correct me if I err.  Those 3600 daily coins cost at least 650 usd to produce unless you build hardware from scratch in bulk.

[BBmodBB]

More adoption

<scam removed>


"Grown with Love. Powered by Bitcoin"

Please stop spreading this scam.

I think he saw this:

420>>>next support $250 then we will see the wild freekin' west once again! =) ~jmho!

And thought that the "420 support" was inviting him?

ya man: $SOCR touting some MMj for BTC thing ~ we are still watchin' ta see how it plays out! ;-) *puffpuff*

[JorgeStolfi]

Yeah, this makes sense. But I don't see how he could rebalance the accounts by moving bitcoin. Fiat will accumulate where the coin price is higher, converting it back to bitcoin would erase the profit and bring the operation back to break-even, no?

I had an example worked out but I cannot find it now, both Google search and the Forum's search seem to be broken.

Anyway, suppose at the end of the month the arbitrager's Bitstamp account gained 10,000 USD while the Huobi account lost 20,000 yuan (so the two together made a profit).  Then (to simplify the math), he waits for a moment when two exchanges are momentarily in equilibrium, that is, the price at Bitstamp is x and the price at Huobi is 6.21*x, and have good liquidity. Then the arbitrager buys N BTC at Bitstamp (slowly so as not to disturb the equilibrium), sends them to the yuan account, and sells them there (ditto); where N is such that +10000 - N*x = -20000/6.21 + N*x.  Then both accounts will have made the same gain.

This rebalancing can of course be done simultaneously with the arbitrage, even out of equilibrium, so that the two accounts have the same profit at all times.