Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

..... 16,000,000 USD is still not a powerful number in this market, be it long or short. but not to contradict myself, I believe short squeezes will affect the market not because there are more or less of them, but because of who has gone short, and where they have gone short. The key is panic, panic moves the market by market orders.

Those traders sitting quite content with longs are not necessarily going to be squeezed if they prove to be stout, 16 million USD can be ignored.

What I see is that the market found a natural bottom after panic selling. that pressure has been relieved, and there is no more until something bad is confirmed by the chinese govt, and even then, the market is partially prepared.

[billyjoeallen]

It is apparent that there is still a lot more margin longs looking for the exit compared to the amount of shorts. It is also worth mentioning that the price broke down from the secret descending triangle and now we are seeing daily closes below it.

That's why a snap back would be so epic. All those shorts forcing to cover as they get their margin calls, cascading  would drive the price up to heaven. Longs have relatively mush less effect in the event of another panic.

[Davyd05]

going to try and creep on low volume.. wonder if the walls behind this are just profit takers who plan to rebuy if we dip back towards the 490s

[ShroomsKit]

If we had any more confirmed bad news we would already know from the price, because the dump happens always 5+ hours before it goes public

Lovely, isn't it 

[billyjoeallen]

It'll be interesting to see what the bears cook up this weekend to mount a charge. How much territory are they going to gain before the counterattack pushes them into the red. They have made a lot of money and some are starting to feel invincible. That's just where we want them. 

[chessnut]

a healthy little wall at 500 on stamp.

price creeping on low volume, bidders be bidding.

I think time for decision is near at hand.

indeed the bears are greedy and complacent. excellent.

[podyx]

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

[Davyd05]

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

I feel that we'll have to do that in November..  of 2014 , which is fine with me

[chessnut]

everyone take one last look at my witch craft before I throw some dice and the market goes as I please.

and still hodling long from 475 

[barbs]

I've got a position (never go full fiat) but I'm of the view that bitstamp is a rinsing machine at this point.  I've seen the same patterns the whole way down from 800 and they've been pretty easy to spot, dumps, jagged support to get the fish nibbling higher, dumps, etc.

Gox was a scourge who's effects will be felt for years, but at the minimum I dont think the market has yet fully reacted to the gox effect and it's playing out in slow motion. It's not bulls vs bears, its btc holders rinsing the little guys all the way from 800 as we find the real BTC price that wasn't manipulated by Mark and his fat thieving ass.

I've lost 300$ so far, not too pleased but I'm not buying big till the low 300's onwards. I could be wrong. This "support" at 500 means what exactly and where did it come from. Is it trying to push the market to eat its asks that it accumulated at 466-500.  After dumping the shit out of the order book since 700?  is this a market or the orange being squeezed for its last bits of pulp?

Best quote from this thread is, bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

There will be plenty of BTC to go around. Continued patience and not getting caught up in the idealistic bs is key. I've fallen for it many times myself and its not easy because the market makers really f with you.  but people are getting sick and tired of it and the sooner we deflate fully the better.

[JCviggen]

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

IMO bitcoin will not become worth multiple thousand dollars as long as many people expect this to happen in the near future. I think it more likely that 2014 will become the first year where BTC ends lower on dec 31st than where it started in January.

[billyjoeallen]

Bulls, get ready for a counterattack. The battle for $500 is not yet won. It's not the ground you can take that wins the day. It's the ground you can hold.

[AlexGR]

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

IMO bitcoin will not become worth multiple thousand dollars as long as many people expect this to happen in the near future. I think it more likely that 2014 will become the first year where BTC ends lower on dec 31st than where it started in January.

I think the price can spike to multi-thousand dollars but only for brief periods. 3600 BTCs flowing into the market, requiring 5000$ each, for 365 days of the year, is like 18mn usd per day to sustain the price. And that's not sustainable in itself (requires 6.5bn in buying capital per year).

Long term however, after block halvings etc, the price could go very high indeed. People do not really appreciate the scarcity of bitcoin. Owning one bitcoin is like having 15 kgs of gold (12mn coins vs 180.000.000kg of above ground gold). Such is the level of scarcity involved. People who have tens/hundreds of BTCs cannot really understand what this means for 5 years ahead, just as people in 2009 could not understand why they should be excited for having XXX-XXXX BTCs.

[Davyd05]

I'll hold 10 until it is like 10,000 ... however some support mild support at 500 sold to the first  bidder

sub 500 again.. for how long though for how longg

[podyx]

I believe we'll see consodilation for some days or maybe even weeks before we start a new uptrend and a new journey to a new ATH (my guess is $6k)

IMO bitcoin will not become worth multiple thousand dollars as long as many people expect this to happen in the near future. I think it more likely that 2014 will become the first year where BTC ends lower on dec 31st than where it started in January.

highly unrealistic

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[creekbore]

everyone take one last look at my witch craft before I throw some dice and the market goes as I please.

and still hodling long from 475 

still waiting...will this take much longer

[aminorex]

I think the price can spike to multi-thousand dollars but only for brief periods. 3600 BTCs flowing into the market, requiring 5000$ each, for 365 days of the year, is like 18mn usd per day to sustain the price. And that's not sustainable in itself (requires 6.5bn in buying capital per year).

What will each of those 3600 cost to acquire?  At current difficulty growth rates, if hardware margins go to zero, by July it will cost $3000 to buy and operate hardware which produces 1 btc after 1 year of operation.

[JCviggen]

I think the price can spike to multi-thousand dollars but only for brief periods. 3600 BTCs flowing into the market, requiring 5000$ each, for 365 days of the year, is like 18mn usd per day to sustain the price. And that's not sustainable in itself (requires 6.5bn in buying capital per year).

What will each of those 3600 cost to acquire?  At current difficulty growth rates, if hardware margins go to zero, by July it will cost $3000 to buy and operate hardware which produces 1 btc after 1 year of operation.

How is that relevant? It doesn't change the equation of how much money needs to come into BTC. Difficulty will not grow forever, it's likely to overshoot putting small scale miners into the red, sure. But that doesn't drive the price.

[tarmi]

I think the price can spike to multi-thousand dollars but only for brief periods. 3600 BTCs flowing into the market, requiring 5000$ each, for 365 days of the year, is like 18mn usd per day to sustain the price. And that's not sustainable in itself (requires 6.5bn in buying capital per year).

What will each of those 3600 cost to acquire?  At current difficulty growth rates, if hardware margins go to zero, by July it will cost $3000 to buy and operate hardware which produces 1 btc after 1 year of operation.

How is that relevant? It doesn't change the equation of how much money needs to come into BTC. Difficulty will not grow forever, it's likely to overshoot putting small scale miners into the red, sure. But that doesn't drive the price.

yes, all we need is bigger data centers and more centralisation and more large scale dumpers, a la knc.