Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714645080]

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[1714645080]

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[1714645080]

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[BlackHatCoiner]

Mining will end someday

Yeah. At doomsday.

[cAPSLOCK]

Lightning Network a thread to BTC.

I do not know why I am compelled to do this, but this particular FUD is so annoying.  I just want to point out why it is wrong.

Once the block subsidy is very low, or over, then fees will be what pay miners.  If we continue on with blocks the size they are fees will go up quite a bit.  This will not matter because it will be being used as the settlement layer.  Transactions will be batched by LSPs, and other people willing to pay high fees to enshrine transactions in the immutable layer.  It is conceivable that transaction fees could end up in the thousands of dollars (by today's failing standard).

The circular nonsense people believe about this is annoying.  You can;t have both.  If lightning and other 2nd layers are a success then there will ALWAYS be transactions in line to get on the base layer.

Now I am sure someone MIGHT be able make a good argument why fees will not ever be enough to support the miners.  But so far I have never heard it, and THAT is certainly not it.

[BitcoinBunny]

Oh, he meant threaT. Ahhh...

 

And no, I don't expect people to write perfect English here, BUT, every single person I've ever met who didn't have English as their first language (and that would be dozens) wouldn't write English that poorly! Hence my mocking.

[cAPSLOCK]

If there is a a strategic reason for Binance to do this other than the just consolidate utxos then it is to make it difficult for unsavvy users to move bitcoin during a price panic.  But I am not sure what good that would do either...

The news says that Binance announced that they would work on consolidation before the scandal with Korean shitcoins, so all speculations about the possible connection between the two events would be just a conspiracy theory. How much the mempool blockade really affected the impossibility of quick transactions from non-custody wallets to CEXs and prevented even bigger sell-offs remains an unanswered question.

Yeah... it does not make much sense.  If you want a <5s/b tx right now you will need to wait several hours.  If you need the tx to confirm immediately then it's gonna be ~20s/b.  If you are sending BTC to a CEX to sell into this bear, and are using a client that does not auto-calculate fees, or you purposely choose a 1 sat per bytle fee?  Well....  I would not say anyone TRICKED you, lol.

[ImThour]

7 Red Weekly Candles for the first time in the history of Bitcoin and you still call it Bull run? my arse.
Midwit's will now ask me to zoom out the chart holy F 

[BlackHatCoiner]

It is conceivable that transaction fees could end up in the thousands of dollars (by today's failing standard).

Median fees? There's no realistic scenario wherein people pay, regularly, thousands of dollars worth of BTC in fees. Even with Binance charging 200+ sats/byte.

[philipma1957]

Lightning Network a thread to BTC.

I do not know why I am compelled to do this, but this particular FUD is so annoying.  I just want to point out why it is wrong.

Once the block subsidy is very low, or over, then fees will be what pay miners.  If we continue on with blocks the size they are fees will go up quite a bit.  This will not matter because it will be being used as the settlement layer.  Transactions will be batched by LSPs, and other people willing to pay high fees to enshrine transactions in the immutable layer.  It is conceivable that transaction fees could end up in the thousands of dollars (by today's failing standard).

The circular nonsense people believe about this is annoying.  You can;t have both.  If lightning and other 2nd layers are a success then there will ALWAYS be transactions in line to get on the base layer.

Now I am sure someone MIGHT be able make a good argument why fees will not ever be enough to support the miners.  But so far I have never heard it, and THAT is certainly not it.

The reality is it may be bad for btc and mining.

The reality we were whaling back in spring of 2021 over 68k big fees in block and miners were counting their soon to be riches.

The reality is LN got actived  more completely in spring of 2021 we have not had 1 btc fee blocks since that happened and BTC has pretty much crashed to a 30k level.

But that is short term let us wait and see if btc comes back.

If it does not than LN will have done a lot of harm to BTC

Most people do not understand what LN will do for or against miners since the time period of wide enacting is only about 1 year.

My gut is it is a terrible idea since that second layer (LN) is very much like staking but I simply do not know much about the world. I will wait and see if 1 btc fee blocks ever come back like they used to do.

[shahzadafzal]

7 Red Weekly Candles for the first time in the history of Bitcoin and you still call it Bull run? my arse.

Edit:
Hahaha you edited your post before I could say that. But focus on the last last point now

[BlackHatCoiner]

My gut is it is a terrible idea since that second layer (LN) is very much like staking but I simply do not know much about the world.

Lightning works like staking, but there are two important differences:

• No coin generation.
• Actual usefulness. (Routing TX)

[vapourminer]

It is conceivable that transaction fees could end up in the thousands of dollars (by today's failing standard).

Median fees? There's no realistic scenario wherein people pay, regularly, thousands of dollars worth of BTC in fees. Even with Binance charging 200+ sats/byte.

when (if) btc is $500k+  usd and only nation states and huge multinational corporations can afford to get in on the base btc blockchain (because space) $10k fees could become common. after all fees are just the cost of doing business to corporations and governments. the cost is passed on the The Little People

us little peeps, who are just one of the great unwashed masses, will have to pay through the nose to get our paltry 100k usd txs on the chain.

[Hamza2424]

Mining will end someday

Yeah. At doomsday.

2140 AD ...

⚠️ Calculate at own risk hope so it won't be difficult.

[Torque]

My gut is it is a terrible idea since that second layer (LN) is very much like staking but I simply do not know much about the world.

Lightning works like staking, but there are two important differences:

• No coin generation.
• Actual usefulness. (Routing TX)

You forgot
3. LN node operators don't really make any money, they are doing it for fun.


Also, why do folks continue to ignore the Core Devs? Like they're never going to touch the code ever again over the next 100 years to make adjustments?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

My gut is it is a terrible idea since that second layer (LN) is very much like staking but I simply do not know much about the world.

Lightning works like staking, but there are two important differences:

• No coin generation.
• Actual usefulness. (Routing TX)

If you count the transaction fee delta as a generation of value rather than simply saving on fee costs, then it is in a way, coin generation. So very much like staking. Except better staking, as you get your coins at the time of transaction.

[JayJuanGee]

Voted $40k+ in the poll (as a retarded hardcore permabull).  

Meanwhile, got some pics of the upcoming 100k party from a time traveler.  

So frequently while going through consolidation periods (and corrections), they seem like they are taking forever to play out.. and yeah, maybe we need to stop pondering 100x or even 50x or 20x.. even though 20x from here ($30k-ish - which would add up to $600k) seems more than doable to me... even though it could take 4-8 years to play out - and I don't even have any problem with 20x playing out in 8 years.. (even though I might no longer be alive because even the implications of the picture involves pondering various health implications with the passage of time.

There may well be some difficulties getting our momentum to revert back to UPpity since we have fallen below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at about $35k)... so getting above that first and foremost might help to establish if the bottom is in.. and then moving further above the 100-week moving average might allow us to consider whether we have gone back into possible UPpity mode... How long will these happenings take?

Remember our little correction between November 2018 and then our reversions to UPpity that happened around April 2019.. that was about a 5 month turn-around, which does not really seem too bad, upon retrospect.. but those felt like a long 5 months while we were going through the process of figuring out if the trend was going to revert to UP....

I hate to sound like a bear.... so maybe I can try to frame potential optimistic reversals that might happen as quickly as a month to play out, but that seems way too optimistic so in that regard, we know that the worser case scenarios for reversal could take longer than the 5 months we experienced in the playing out of that 2018/2019 situation.

By the way, about a month ago, I had noticed that the 200-week moving average was moving up around $30 per day, and now it seems to be moving up around $15 per day.. so for sure lower BTC prices does contribute towards that 200-week moving average moving up at a slower pace (even though it does ongoingly tend to move up since the BTC price does ongoing tend to trade above it - at least so far in our 8-ish plus years of BTC trading history that has established a 200-week moving average in the first place (there needs to be nearly 4 years of prior trading history, just to establish a 200-week moving average)).

[shahzadafzal]

Unfortunately for them their 80k BTC also couldn’t save LUNA

Reserve before crash: 


Reserves after crash:


https://twitter.com/lfg_org/status/1526126703046582272?s=21

[Torque]

7 Red Weekly Candles for the first time in the history of Bitcoin and you still call it Bull run? my arse.
Midwit's will now ask me to zoom out the chart holy F  

From $10k to $30k was the bull run. $30k and higher was the overshoot.

Sorry that you missed the gains bro?   🤷

[eddie13]

Unfortunately for them their 80k BTC also couldn’t save LUNA

Reserve before crash: 


Reserves after crash:


https://twitter.com/lfg_org/status/1526126703046582272?s=21

Why didn’t they dump bnb and avax?

[shahzadafzal]

Unfortunately for them their 80k BTC also couldn’t save LUNA

Reserve before crash:  


Reserves after crash:


https://twitter.com/lfg_org/status/1526126703046582272?s=21

Why didn’t they dump bnb and avax?

So tomorrow they can say “all we left with is just shit”.