Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cygan]

Those cards by Lina Seiche are so cute. Keep posting them, thanks!

this thread is the first place to go for these comics by Line Seiche
will continue to post all others here immediately�

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Ken Griffin (Citadel)  – Bitcoin /regulation and various


https://youtu.be/73IeQW_E10w



....another one bites the dust

That is a fucking boss fight.  He's almost as big as the government.  But nowhere near as big as the Fed.  Says he does not understand the intent of new regulation... that's odd.  He's almost certainly involved with creating it.  I hope there is honesty in what he says in that segment.  If so the west still has some little glimmers of hope.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Last chance to buy at the dip before we go north Got my extra 0.1btc

Yes! Yes... Last chance to buy before we go to Zer0! .. (or 22K ofc)   

[Blue King]

BREAKING: Eurozone inflation hits 8.1%, highest level ever.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1531590143974559745

[suchmoon]

Today Bitcoin price $31.5k. . My guess is that Bitcoin will go back to the previous position.The current market situation is fairly good.

Plagiarising merit whores are breeding now... wonderful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Hi, I read here a lot, but do not speak much. This thread has the majority of advanced users, so I am asking here...
I have used public/private keys, generated locally offline from the code at https://bitcoinpaperwallet.com (public key starts with a 1).

I wish to move them to a segwit paper wallet (public key starts 3), I understand there are technical advantages (cheaper miner fees?). What's the best way to generate offline segwit key pairs? I found https://segwitaddress.org/ but have no experience with it.

Then, I assume I should just sweep them into a local wallet (I prefer Electrum), then send them to the new segwit public address. Suggestions or advice?

Follow Heater’s advice, using your offline computer.  Instead of saving some webpage of questionable trustworthiness and transferring it to your offline computer, why not just use Electrum to create your cold wallet on your offline computer?  (Always verify Electrum downloads; and only download Electrum from the official site, https://electrum.org/.)

You don’t want the address that starts with a 3.  Native Segwit addresses begin with the string bc1.  (Neither of these is a public key.)

<Snip terse, confusing non-explanation loaded with tech jargon^*—would take 20 printed pages to explain sensibly.>

Some of the subforums here have smart regulars who are generous with their time answering questions.  Beginner-level guidance — technical support (for Electrum) — the development forum is great if you want to dig deeply into this, but you shouldn’t post there unless you already have advanced technical knowledge.

Segwit will indeed save you on fees, when you send the money from the Segwit address.  The fee savings is not arbitrary:  Spends from Segwit make better use of limited block space, and use a neat trick to expand the block size; accordingly, the bytes in Segwit spends are accounted in a way that results in paying less fees.  It also has many other advantages, but they don’t seem relevant to your use case; the Segwit upgrade is necessary for many things built on top of Bitcoin, such as the Lightning Network.  Segwit activation on the network also closed a little loophole in the mining algorithm that let some miners gain an unfair advantage (covert ASICBOOST), but that’s old news and not relevant anymore.

^* The address starting with a 3 is a backwards-compatibility “nested Segwit” address.  It a pre-Segwit P2SH (Pay to Script Hash) address; in this case, you would be creating an address from the hash of a script that spends a Segwit output.  It is better than the address that starts with a 1 (P2PKH, Pay to Public Key Hash), but not as efficient as “native Segwit”; accordingly, you would only get part of the Segwit fee savings.  The nested addresses were only necessary during the transition in 2017–2018, maybe even as late as 2019–2020—and only necessary for receiving money from people (or exchanges) with old wallet software, who were unable to send to a native Segwit address.  In 2022, I think it’s long obsolete.

Native Segwit addresses (bech32 and bech32m) are case-insensitive, and they look very different than the older style of Bitcoin addresses.  There are also now multiple versions of Segwit:  Witness Version 0, P2WPKH (Pay to Witness Public Key Hash) or P2WSH (not relevant here); Witness Version 1, P2TR (Pay to Taproot).  I don’t want to complicate the explanation even more here; for what seems like your use case, P2WPKH should be fine.  Segwit was designed with forward compatibility; future witness version numbers may go up to 15.

[BitcoinBunny]

BREAKING: Eurozone inflation hits 8.1%, highest level ever.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1531590143974559745

BREAKING:
In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth.
And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep.
And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.
And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

[JayJuanGee]

The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down.  

I think this is simply trying to provide excuses for current price action. Although I hate to admit it, BTC has been highly correlated to stocks "risk assets" with have fallen dramatically this year.

Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I'm also not seeing much high long leverage right now, but more of a balance:

Longs vs Shorts:. https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
Liquidiation Data:. https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData
Futures: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/crypto-markets/futures

If anything, it seems that there is relatively low leverage right now, with futures volume currently at summer 2021 levels for example (<$2b as opposed to >$4b 6 months ago). Many positions already got liquidated earlier in the month, predominantly longs after breaking $30K but many shorts as well after the bounce from $25K level. Most won't want to short in oversold conditions, others don't want to long without confirmation of a low.

As for ETH locked in 2.0, I find it highly irrelevant, many of those longer term investors will eye up the opportunity to rotate back into Bitcoin I imagine, anticipating BTC to recover much faster than any altcoins (which has always been the case so far). While MtGox coins that may be released later this year, or in 2024, sure it could spook some investors, but this has been the case for over a year already. Yawn.

The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested.  I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range.  Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.

I agree that $28K is looking exhausted, even if bears are losing momentum after 9 weeks of selling. So re-testing $26K does "look" relatively likely at this point. But this can go either way based on current leverage data. Dropping below $28K would liquidate longs and likely re-test mid $20Ks, but moving above $30K-32K would otherwise liquidate shorts, pushing prices back into the mid $30Ks. Even if we are admittedly closer to breaking down than bouncing back to the upside. But I do agree it'd be healthy to build support at such oversold levels if that happens, better to drop asap than later with price no longer oversold.

It's the sort of "coin flip" scenario that unless you are trying to trade a risky break-out in either direction, then you'd likely be better off in both short & long positions with high leverage and simply trade the volatility instead. Given how degenerate the strategy of being both long and short with high enough leverage to make it worthwhile is, I'm not surprised there's low leverage in the market right now, due to lack of oppounrtity.

The on-chain data also suggests that 6-12 month holders who dumped 50% of their bags over the past 6 months are close to running out of Bitcoin to sell. Meanwhile, the 1 year+ holders (in particular 1-2 year holders) seem completely unphased by the drop from $69K. Notably the 6-12 months holders have now either dumped or become 1+ year holders since 6 months ago, even after buying in the mid $30K range. Hence why if not obvious the 6-12 month hodlers have dropped from 20% to 10%, while the 1 year hodlers have risen from 10% to 20%. Half of them dumped, the other half held basically, price dropped in half.

For reference sake, the volume data shows that 1-2 year hodlers predominantly bought at $10K as opposed to $30K or $60K (May 2020 - May 2021). So price will probably need to drop below $20K to shake these strong hands out the market. Returning to $25K or the 200 Week MA likely won't achieve much. After all, most bought BTC post-havling in the $10K-12K range, I imagine for the long-term as well.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

In the past day or so I have been reflecting on BTC's somewhat gradual movements towards the UPpity, and in that regard, I appreciate the above fairly-detailed (at least point by point @ dragonvslinux) attempts at rebutting some of the seeming "inevitably downity" talking-points that OgNasty had come out with - and surely it is not the first time that I had seen some forum members presenting a variety of points proclaiming very high odds to DOWNity that seem to be attempting to create the impression that down is inevitable - when many of us know that inevitability in bitcoin is far from something that any of us should be relying upon, even if it seems that various cards are being stacked against King Daddy.

It seems that even in a few of my earlier responsive posts (here's an example of one of them) I had conceded that the evidence of DOWNity was appearing quite strong based on the seemingly record number of Bitfinex longs that were shown on the chart linked therein.... so in that regard, I was starting to consider that it would be hard to go up if there were so many (an apparent record number of) leveraged longs on Bitfinex.....

I had not exactly been clear in my own ways to attempt to analyze the information, including whether such leverage longs were reflective across other exchanges or even counter-balanced by other factors.

I know that there was another point that I was considering that the BTC price could still go UPpity, in spite of leveraged longs because there are also incentives for some of the bullwhales to reck the bearwhales based on what is likely to be an ongoing existing practice of leverage (and likely non-backed - aka naked) shorts that they maintain through a variety of bitcoin futures products... and in that regard, it seems that some day, their reckoning is going to come.** 

**I touched upon that kind of reasoning in one of my earlier posts, here.

...what do you consider the odds for BTC prices to continue to go down if it has already corrected 63% (from $69k to $25,401)?

QFT out of that wall o text.

Well shouldn't we all be attempting to figure out those kinds of calculations - especially if  we are betting on more down?  We do have a bit of a problem of all those outstanding leveraged longs on Bitfinex (a record level, apparently), so not really sure how that is going to resolve itself if BTC were to go UPpity rather than down, except for that everyone gets a Lambo ......

Both Greg Foss and Max Keiser talk about such a "Gamma" possibility in their recent Swann Bitcoin podcast, which I just understood as Bitcoin's potential explosive possibility to the UPside that could come at any time.

Perhaps the punchline that I am trying to make here ends up being that sometimes some Upward momentum might be helpful for bitcoin to break out of a pattern that had been looking quite dire, and surely we are not in any kind of inevitability for UPpity pattern either, yet whatever UPward movements we have seen so far should have shaken some of the confidence that guys might feel in regards to DOWNity being inevitable - and surely it was helpful for me to see dragonvslinux go through some of the arguments to counter OgNasty's DOWNity proclamations - and I am especially considering that the leveraged longs on Bitfinex do not seem to be deserving as much weight as I had been considering them to potentially have - even if I was understanding that information and those Bitfinuex charts correctly or not... especially the ones that I responded to empowering's earlier post on the topic.

[AnotherAlt]

Today Bitcoin price $31.5k. . My guess is that Bitcoin will go back to the previous position.The current market situation is fairly good.

Plagiarising merit whores are breeding now... wonderful.

I am not sure if one of them plagiarising. But, Look like the Blue King guy is either selling 1 Merit to Sabriya to rank up. Or, It is his alt account.

Sabriya guy is a bounty hunter and never made a single post anywhere except the bounty section. This is the first post here and Blue King Merited it. LOL

[suchmoon]

I am not sure if one of them plagiarising.

I am sure. Reported. Moderators don't care. So public shaming it is then.

[Lucius]

BREAKING: Eurozone inflation hits 8.1%, highest level ever.
Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1531590143974559745

8.1% from the perspective of some other countries seems quite harmless, so I wouldn’t get too upset about it.


Source

[JayJuanGee]

Today Bitcoin price $31.5k. . My guess is that Bitcoin will go back to the previous position.The current market situation is fairly good.

If you read your post, can you see that you are writing in a way that is vague as fuck?

I believe that I understand that you are proclaiming that we are going back up.. and maybe even suggesting that the bottom might well be in (referring to our current bottom of $25,401 from May 12th)

...  I am not unsympathetic ...

Fixed that double negative for ya Jay...

You fuck!!!!!



You ruined every thing.

Did he just say you are a "SiMP-athetic" ..?!     ..

No.  He did not say that.

You are



wwwwwwwwwrrrrrroooooooonnnnnnngggggggggggg!!!



again...



what else is new?



Probably the name Save the RF should = wrong.... at least more wrong than right...   

What's your track record Save the RF?  maybe about 90/10? 

or am I being too generous? 


I'm like that, sometimes. #justsaying  hahahahahahaha

Ken Griffin (Citadel)  – Bitcoin /regulation and various


https://youtu.be/73IeQW_E10w



....another one bites the dust

That is a fucking boss fight.  He's almost as big as the government.  But nowhere near as big as the Fed.  Says he does not understand the intent of new regulation... that's odd.  He's almost certainly involved with creating it.  I hope there is honesty in what he says in that segment.  If so the west still has some little glimmers of hope.

Surely, we realize that guys at that level speak out of both sides of their mouths... .. gotta take them with a decently large-sized grain of salt.

Last chance to buy at the dip before we go north Got my extra 0.1btc

Yes! Yes... Last chance to buy before we go to Zer0! .. (or 22K ofc)   

Isn't it so funny that you are such an opposite indicator Save the RF... Remember the last 6 months or so (maybe a bit longer), you had been proclaiming that we are going to the moon.. blah blah blah..

and then in about the past two-three weeks you have been proclaiming that we are going to zero or some other random low number ($22k is it now?).... Just going by your baloney (not that you know much of anything worth knowing - even if the opposite), maybe the bottom is in?

You have a "great" track record in regards to the various alts that you have been pumping/shilling in these here parts too.. #justsaying...








NOT.


 

[bitcoinPsycho]

BREAKING: Eurozone inflation hits 8.1%, highest level ever.
Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1531590143974559745

8.1% from the perspective of some other countries seems quite harmless, so I wouldn’t get too upset about it.


Source

Yeah but inflation is really about 25% in the UK according to my real life calculations

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I am not sure if one of them plagiarising.

I am sure. Reported. Moderators don't care. So public shaming it is then.

I think that moderators care, but it surely seems that there is a certain number of posting/attribution "mishaps" that the moderators seem to allow without totally banning a member, including some abilities for the member (especially some of the newbies) to correct the "mishaps" - which surely may well go beyond the judgement/discretion of others who believe it would be better to take a harder stance against some of the matters that seem to be well into the territory of actual plagiarizing rather than a bunch of coincidental mishaps.

So, surely it can be irritating sometimes to see that some members seem to be getting away with shit that they should either not be getting away with or that the evidence seems strong enough that there seems to be some intentionality there.

I appreciate that some member are pointing out the various members who they believe to be NOT providing sufficient substantive materials/contributions, which has caused me to reflect upon my willingness to provide merits for mere links (and links with no commentary) especially from newbies... but sometimes even considering the merit-worthiness or the substantive contributions of contents of more senior members, too.

I do also sometimes merit some more senior (regular) members here, even though I find the post(s) to be lacking in substance and lacking in commentary and taken from other folks without adequate and clear attribution... .surely we can get away with more when we are just posting memes (without much if any words contained therein or the meme is already in a large number of places on the interwebs so it is clear that we are just reposting something that someone else made).. and so I do not necessarily expect attributions when memes are posted.. and the fewer the number of words on the meme, the safer it would be to post, even without attributions.. so it seems to me..... but when there are a lot of words within the memes, then sometimes it becomes a bit more ambiguous regarding whether there needs to be an attribution or a link regarding from where did that meme come and was there a specific author or institution who had created that content that seems to have some talking points contained therein... and maybe a source/link should be provided (if it is not already stated somewhere visibly embedded within the meme).

And with the memes containing words, sometimes, even when the author of the content is listed within the picture / meme, I become critical of other members (there could be times that I end up being guilty of similar transgressions?) for not providing a link that would help any of us to get directly to the content source because sometimes there might be a need to both verify that the source had really made such statement(s) and/or also that the context of the statement (talking about within a meme - or perhaps a tweet here) could be helpful in terms of understanding what was said before or after the earlier posting of the content and how others were responding to such content... so in that regard, even well-intended longer-term members here might end up providing content that is way too ambiguous, confusing and in need of clarification (maybe even misleading?) and getting to the context in which that content had been initially made might end up showing that the content may not have meant what the potentially well-intending member had thought that the content had meant.

[BitcoinBunny]

Thanks Ursula. Top job. Keep it up.

Petrol prices hit new record high of 173p a litre as EU bans Russian oil imports
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/petrol-prices-hit-record-high-093137411.html

I already pay far more per litre anyway as I only use premium fuels and the averages never seem as low as the official figures.

$10 per gallon in the USA soon I'm guessing.

[Torque]

OT:

So if you read between the lines of what prominent CEOs and corp heads are now saying, the *real* reason they now want the Fed to hike rates is revealed.

Now that consumer goods prices are jacked up way higher due to "inflation", they want the Fed to raise rates so that their input costs will decrease (eg, raw goods, materials, etc.).

With more rate hikes, consumer goods prices won't come down in response (of course), just the cost to manufacture will go down, increasing corporate profits even more.

Neat how that works, huh?  

Thanks Ursula. Top job. Keep it up.

Petrol prices hit new record high of 173p a litre as EU bans Russian oil imports
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/petrol-prices-hit-record-high-093137411.html

I already pay far more per litre anyway as I only use premium fuels and the averages never seem as low as the official figures.

$10 per gallon in the USA soon I'm guessing.

TPTB are trying their hardest to create worldwide demand destruction for petrol.

But they also created a global inflationary environment where everyone is desperately holding on to their petrol cars longer because they can't afford a new one, and also creating a hot market for selling used petrol cars faster than new ones. Hardly anyone is buying EVs because they cost too much and EV stations are nowhere to be found.

Which all ironically puts even more petrol cars on the streets long term, not less.