Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

[discussion of moderation and merit]

The merit system was supposed to be natural:  You see a post that looks to you like a substantive contribution to community discussion.  You hit the merit button.  Accounts that make good posts rise in rank.  Nice theory!

It rapidly devolved so that you need to hire a private investigator to do a background check on an unrecognized account before sending it merit.  Well, I exaggerate—but not by much.  That’s sad, but it is inevitable.

The bounties subforums are, in essence, dedicated spam support sections for spamming other websites.  (Though I doubt those social media sites much mind; some of them are corrupt as hell.)  They are a magnet for abuse.  Add the general problem of paid signatures, and you have a recipe for problems that cannot be fixed with any kind of rank or merit system.

You, Jay, contribute hours of your own time and effort to writing substantive posts that help people.  You don’t even wear a paid signature to get some compensation for your time, as would be damn well justified in your case.  Don’t feel bad that you sent some merits to Blue King.  You were acting in good faith.

The problem would be solved by deleting the bounties subforums, and banning paid signatures.  That will not happen here, so it is anyway otiose to worry about the few merits you inadvertently sent to a spammer.  Don’t batslap yourself.


Some high-merit WO regulars (not Jay) habitually send large amounts of knee-jerk applause merit to groupthink preaching-to-the-choir posts saying things that hatters want to hear.  That should change, it’s not going to change, and I will not waste my time quibbling over it.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[julian071]

Usually there is a dump @ 30k euro, any moment now.....

[cAPSLOCK]

https://youtu.be/OshNahVo9-c

Oh my God.  Is that the antichrist or the most direct prophet of our age?

[bitcoinPsycho]

[discussion of moderation and merit]

The merit system was supposed to be natural:  You see a post that looks to you like a substantive contribution to community discussion.  You hit the merit button.  Accounts that make good posts rise in rank.  Nice theory!

It rapidly devolved so that you need to hire a private investigator to do a background check on an unrecognized account before sending it merit.  Well, I exaggerate—but not by much.  That’s sad, but it is inevitable.

The bounties subforums are, in essence, dedicated spam support sections for spamming other websites.  (Though I doubt those social media sites much mind; some of them are corrupt as hell.)  They are a magnet for abuse.  Add the general problem of paid signatures, and you have a recipe for problems that cannot be fixed with any kind of rank or merit system.

You, Jay, contribute hours of your own time and effort to writing substantive posts that help people.  You don’t even wear a paid signature to get some compensation for your time, as would be damn well justified in your case.  Don’t feel bad that you sent some merits to Blue King.  You were acting in good faith.

The problem would be solved by deleting the bounties subforums, and banning paid signatures.  That will not happen here, so it is anyway otiose to worry about the few merits you inadvertently sent to a spammer.  Don’t batslap yourself.


Some high-merit WO regulars (not Jay) habitually send large amounts of knee-jerk applause merit to groupthink preaching-to-the-choir posts saying things that hatters want to hear.  That should change, it’s not going to change, and I will not waste my time quibbling over it.

Merit giving is discretionary. Stop whining,you have your own discretion

[savetherainforest]

Last chance to buy at the dip before we go north Got my extra 0.1btc

Yes! Yes... Last chance to buy before we go to Zer0! .. (or 22K ofc)    

[...]

NOT.

 

I don't mind if it goes Up!    
So.... basically we are supposed to go down now to somewhere between $19K < > $24K. So we can go next to 200K+. (This year)    

If not, and we go up now to around $79K < > $99K, then it will probably drag along till 2 months or so with downs and ups and we will have like a weird down August/September... something... And then we will go up again and down again... It is not clean, it's dirty. Do you want a dirty thing or a clean thing?? Then we need to drop now this week. If not, we go up for 1-2 months, then we go down again for 2-3.    

[death_wish]

Some high-merit WO regulars (not Jay) habitually send large amounts of knee-jerk applause merit to groupthink preaching-to-the-choir posts saying things that hatters want to hear.

Merit giving is discretionary. Stop whining,you have your own discretion

Some people have poor discretion.  Your whining to accuse me of “whining” is a tell:  The truth hurts!

That should change, it’s not going to change, and I will not waste my time quibbling over it.

Nor should I continue much further with a throwaway account that is accidentally picking up way too much merit for high-quality, substantive posts.  LOL.  Whoops.  Surely, I have much to whine about.

[OgNasty]

Seems like we got a little bounce and now everyone is bullish again.  The reactionary emotions in this market are interesting to say the least.  If you are being affected by such small market movements then you have way too much money invested in crypto.  I remember when people got excited by 500% moves, not 5%.  Still, I'm happy that we didn't see the ultimate plunge yet, but I'm a bit concerned by all the bullishness given how much bearish fundamental overhang is on the overall crypto market right now.  I'd be careful until some of that leverage goes away if you're overinvested. 

[suchmoon]

Nor should I continue much further with a throwaway account that is accidentally picking up way too much merit for high-quality, substantive posts.  LOL.  Whoops.  Surely, I have much to whine about.

Speaking of useless throwaway newbie accounts that pretend to know everything about everyone, what's your opinion on your fellow mouthy cunt nullius? Is he the greatest genius ever or what?

[dragonvslinux]

The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down.  

I think this is simply trying to provide excuses for current price action. Although I hate to admit it, BTC has been highly correlated to stocks "risk assets" with have fallen dramatically this year.

Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I'm also not seeing much high long leverage right now, but more of a balance:

Longs vs Shorts:. https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
Liquidiation Data:. https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData
Futures: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/crypto-markets/futures

If anything, it seems that there is relatively low leverage right now, with futures volume currently at summer 2021 levels for example (<$2b as opposed to >$4b 6 months ago). Many positions already got liquidated earlier in the month, predominantly longs after breaking $30K but many shorts as well after the bounce from $25K level. Most won't want to short in oversold conditions, others don't want to long without confirmation of a low.

As for ETH locked in 2.0, I find it highly irrelevant, many of those longer term investors will eye up the opportunity to rotate back into Bitcoin I imagine, anticipating BTC to recover much faster than any altcoins (which has always been the case so far). While MtGox coins that may be released later this year, or in 2024, sure it could spook some investors, but this has been the case for over a year already. Yawn.

The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested.  I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range.  Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.

I agree that $28K is looking exhausted, even if bears are losing momentum after 9 weeks of selling. So re-testing $26K does "look" relatively likely at this point. But this can go either way based on current leverage data. Dropping below $28K would liquidate longs and likely re-test mid $20Ks, but moving above $30K-32K would otherwise liquidate shorts, pushing prices back into the mid $30Ks. Even if we are admittedly closer to breaking down than bouncing back to the upside. But I do agree it'd be healthy to build support at such oversold levels if that happens, better to drop asap than later with price no longer oversold.

It's the sort of "coin flip" scenario that unless you are trying to trade a risky break-out in either direction, then you'd likely be better off in both short & long positions with high leverage and simply trade the volatility instead. Given how degenerate the strategy of being both long and short with high enough leverage to make it worthwhile is, I'm not surprised there's low leverage in the market right now, due to lack of oppounrtity.

The on-chain data also suggests that 6-12 month holders who dumped 50% of their bags over the past 6 months are close to running out of Bitcoin to sell. Meanwhile, the 1 year+ holders (in particular 1-2 year holders) seem completely unphased by the drop from $69K. Notably the 6-12 months holders have now either dumped or become 1+ year holders since 6 months ago, even after buying in the mid $30K range. Hence why if not obvious the 6-12 month hodlers have dropped from 20% to 10%, while the 1 year hodlers have risen from 10% to 20%. Half of them dumped, the other half held basically, price dropped in half.

For reference sake, the volume data shows that 1-2 year hodlers predominantly bought at $10K as opposed to $30K or $60K (May 2020 - May 2021). So price will probably need to drop below $20K to shake these strong hands out the market. Returning to $25K or the 200 Week MA likely won't achieve much. After all, most bought BTC post-havling in the $10K-12K range, I imagine for the long-term as well.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

In the past day or so I have been reflecting on BTC's somewhat gradual movements towards the UPpity, and in that regard, I appreciate the above fairly-detailed (at least point by point @ dragonvslinux) attempts at rebutting some of the seeming "inevitably downity" talking-points that OgNasty had come out with - and surely it is not the first time that I had seen some forum members presenting a variety of points proclaiming very high odds to DOWNity that seem to be attempting to create the impression that down is inevitable - when many of us know that inevitability in bitcoin is far from something that any of us should be relying upon, even if it seems that various cards are being stacked against King Daddy.

For sure many became too bearish once $30K broke, expecting that the 200 Week MA must next be tested after a higher low structure was broken, but as you like many others know, nothing is a guarantee in the world of Bitcoin. I too thought it was the most likely scenario, with strong chance or a capitulation wick even lower, but as soon as the buying pressure arrived at $25K taking prices to $29K, it seemed pretty clear that not everyone was waiting around for the "perfect price". I referenced this here in the topic "Was $25K the bottom?", based on the fact that for sure it could be even if seemed like the worst was yet to come. Until price is back above $40K I won't be that convinced that $25K was the low, but for now remain neutral with slight bullish bias.

It seems that even in a few of my earlier responsive posts (here's an example of one of them) I had conceded that the evidence of DOWNity was appearing quite strong based on the seemingly record number of Bitfinex longs that were shown on the chart linked therein.... so in that regard, I was starting to consider that it would be hard to go up if there were so many (an apparent record number of) leveraged longs on Bitfinex.....

I had not exactly been clear in my own ways to attempt to analyze the information, including whether such leverage longs were reflective across other exchanges or even counter-balanced by other factors.

I stopped paying much attention to Bitfinex longs/shorts to be much honest, traders are always horrifically long on that exchange, increasingly over the years. The fact the ratio is 40:1 isn't as concerning as it might seem (or concerning at all)
Notice how their long to short ratio has been above 1:1 since 2019. Even during the covid crash there were still more longs than shorts! Coincidence? I think not.



I can only assume there are long-term positions here, sub $3K, maybe even sub $1K, and/or* generally lower leverage being used for the longer-term. Either way, compared to the rest of the market, it's completely unrepresentative of the overall leverage in the market.  That's why I now look at coinglass, rather than blockchain whispers that only shows 3 leverage exchanges, while these days there are dozens, and Bitfinex usually sitting around 90%+ long while otherwise are close to 50%. Probably the reason for Bitfinex such high long leverage is because traders have done well using it over the years.

*Edit: Realise Bitfinex leverage wasn't around in early 2017, but given longs have risen since May 9th ($30K) and weren't liquidated when price reached $25K on the 13th, instead increased, then must have been lower leverage being used in order to avoid liquidation. I imagine we'll see some profit taking around $35K and $40K. Stop losses should be sub $30K for these positions.

In summary, this isn't 2017/2018 anymore whereby Bitmex and Bitfinex dominate the leverage market. There are already a handful of exchanges with more volume. It's like looking at Bitstamp for volume these days, you won't see much high volume there anymore, because there has been declining volume on that exchange for years now in favour or the newer exchanges.

I know that there was another point that I was considering that the BTC price could still go UPpity, in spite of leveraged longs because there are also incentives for some of the bullwhales to reck the bearwhales based on what is likely to be an ongoing existing practice of leverage (and likely non-backed - aka naked) shorts that they maintain through a variety of bitcoin futures products... and in that regard, it seems that some day, their reckoning is going to come.**

Exactly, also bare in mind that shorts normally get liquidated near the lows, longs usually get liquidated near the highs. Like in May 2021 when the market was over-leveraged long and price capitulated, or in in 2019 when the market was over-leveraged short during the bear market so the price just continued rallying all the way up to $14K. $6K-$8K should of act as some of resistance back then, but too many traders had shorted that range so the cascade of liquidations instead sent prices much higher, liquidating fresh shorts along the way as well. Some people were genuinely trying to short Bitcoin to $0 it seemed.

Overall, many people are stuck in some 2017-2018 mindset, because they've experienced a cycle or two and that was the most recent one. Better to shift to a 2021-2022 perspective to keep up to date  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

8.1% from the perspective of some other countries seems quite harmless, so I wouldn’t get too upset about it.

No, it's still shitty.

[JayJuanGee]

Last chance to buy at the dip before we go north Got my extra 0.1btc

Yes! Yes... Last chance to buy before we go to Zer0! .. (or 22K ofc)    

[...]

NOT.

 

I don't mind if it goes Up!    
So.... basically we are supposed to go down now to somewhere between $19K < > $24K. So we can go next to 200K+. (This year)    

I have already made several posts in which I concede (call it capitulate if you like) that bitcoin had fallen into a bear market (or at least acknowledgement that we had always been in a bear market since a certain point in the past - whether that point would have been April 2021 or November 2021).  So, for me, the concession of the bearmarket came when the BTC price broke below the 100-week moving average (then at about $35k), and it also got stuck below that 100-week moving average for a decent amount of time (like more than a few days).

But even if we concede that we have been in a bear market since about May 8th/May9th (give or take a few days), that does not automatically mean that the BTC price has to go any lower than it has already gone (which currently is the $25,401 bottom on May 12)....

So, yeah we can even concede that the odds for going below $25,401 have increased considerably since after we had determined that we were in a bear market (May 8th/May 9th-ish)...but even if we say that the odds have increased considerably, that still does not mean that the odds of going down have become inevitable.. or that down before up is inevitable.

We can also reasonably proclaim:  "it's not looking good."  "it's not looking good", but still that does not mean that we have to visit those lower numbers that you have been shouting out for the past few weeks as if they are inevitable..

In other words, Save the RF.. you seem to have a wee bit of a problema in that you get caught up into exaggerating future events as if they have become inevitable merely because they have concededly become more probable than they had been previously.

Get a grip.

Get a fucking grip.


hahahahaha

#nohomo

If not, and we go up now to around $79K < > $99K, then it will probably drag along till 2 months or so with downs and ups and we will have like a weird down August/September... something... And then we will go up again and down again... It is not clean, it's dirty. Do you want a dirty thing or a clean thing?? Then we need to drop now this week. If not, we go up for 1-2 months, then we go down again for 2-3.    

Can you even help yourself?

Either you are extreme in one direction, or you are extreme in the other?

Is there any middle ground for uie-pooie?


You know that even if the BTC price starts to go up, a few resistance points have likely come into effect based on where we went around May 8/9, and the fact that we have largely been stuck below $31k for the past almost 3 weeks.

So yeah.. we have to get above various resistance points and then stay above those resistance points... and so it is possible that the BTC price will just go shooting straight into ATHs again, but that is not even a very plausible theory, even if it is possible to happen.

There will likely be some corrections along the way.. and we cannot even rest assured that the $25,401 bottom is in until at least getting back above the 100-week moving average (which is still above $35k and approaching $36k.. by the way, I am surprised that the 100-week moving average continues to move up even though BTC spot price has been below the 100-week moving average for nearly 3 weeks).  On a personal level, I probably am not going to feel that the bottom is in until staying significantly (perhaps more than 12%) above the 100-week moving average for a decent amount of time (perhaps a week or so).

Once we get significantly back above the 100-week moving average, we then are likely to have some pre-ATH resistance points too.... Anyhow, I hate to get into rambling about too many steps in advance because they become way too tentative if we have not even crossed over one or two of the legs yet.. and sure, I will say that it is quite helpful that we had crossed above $31k and into $32k with seemingly ongoing UPpity price pressures, but I hate to presume anything.. including either that we have to go back down before UP or the opposite that the bottom is in.. because we are still in a kind of limbo land and the next 1-3 days are critical^tm as fuck.. you better take out your magical predictor 8-ball** if you want to know what is going to happen next in bitcoinlandia. #justsaying.


** much better than the braincells that you burned out in the 80s.. since you had not been around in the 60s to burn them out.

Nor should I continue much further with a throwaway account that is accidentally picking up way too much merit for high-quality, substantive posts.  LOL.  Whoops.  Surely, I have much to whine about.

Speaking of useless throwaway newbie accounts that pretend to know everything about everyone, what's your opinion on your fellow mouthy cunt nullius? Is he the greatest genius ever or what?

hahahaha

You are quite the investigator, suchmoon...

#justsaying

Kind of like Colombo.

[empowering]

Great Scott

We are goin' back......





https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/30/23147339/delorean-alpha-5-first-look-gull-winged-ev-revival

https://insideevs.com/news/588851/delorean-alpha5-electric-gt-takes-revived-brand-to-future/



 

[DireWolfM14]

Today's Astronomy Picture of the Day, it's a sign:

[savetherainforest]

Today's Astronomy Picture of the Day, it's a sign:

The Sun is getting germinated with m(T)usk eLons sperm??

[DireWolfM14]

The Sun is getting germinated with m(T)usk eLons sperm??

Every man imagines his own sperm as if it's rocketing out, germinating the universe...


Right?   

[eXPHorizon]

Today's Astronomy Picture of the Day, it's a sign:

The Sun is getting germinated with m(T)usk eLons sperm??

Hahahhah thats a good one 🤣 🤣 🤣

[OutOfMemory]

Today's Astronomy Picture of the Day, it's a sign:

Fucking gorgeous shot!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation