Pointless post follows -- skip if you're looking for serious TA/charts/predictions.
BBQ with cousin & friends tonight. One is a coiner (sadly, of the crapto variety). In 2017 I talked to him about Bitcoin, but he ended up becoming a shitcoiner out of get-rich-quick greed and falling for the "too expensive" trap. After 5 years of 24/7 chart-watching/day-trading (installed monitors in bedroom, kitchen and bathroom), he's still not rich, just a bit better off. Of his $5k initial investment, he bought some small piece of land (worth $10k) and a 75" TV, and was left with the $5k he started with -- I've already talked about his case here in WO -- not that anyone cares, but it can serve as a lesson to some, if Jay's batslappenings are not enough. Now, cousin focuses on what he does best: handle the meat/BBQ matters (he's really good at that). I just go there for the good company (they're all great guys/gals) and to eat. Easy life. Thank you, Bitcoin.
We are likely going to be dealing with no coiners, low coiners and shitcoiners for a decent amount of time.. hard to predict the future though.. dollar is going to last for how long? at least 10 years, no? It's hard to know. It's hard to imagine a world in which the dollar were to disappear and then there is some gravitation of people into shitcoins? I am having troubles .. except having pretty good ideas that having some kind of bitcoin hedge - even if it is not a whole lot.. 1% to 25%.. and yeah... get the fuck off zero.. and 1% seems almost a minimum.. but people likely don't even do that because they seem to still have troubles knowing what is bitcoin.. they know what is the dollar (at least they think that they know that having more of those dollar thingies is better than having fewer.. hahahahahaha.. why is these BBQs costing more and more and more? and why are there so many zeros on the end of my dollar bills.. reintroduction of the $10k bill.. great.. ).. and they know what is gambling (well they seem to love to get caught up in it)..
It feels like we might have "
battomed out". Just tried to send $10k to Kraken to BTFD, but bank says "recipient account blocked". Tried the remaining 3 IBANs. Still blocked. Tried $5k. Still blocked. Fuck you, fiat system. Looks like I will have to open another account on some crypto-friendly bank.
Those ramps seem to need to be regularly activated.. NOT trying to say what to do.. .. but sometimes I am doing some back and forth with fiat systems just to do it and to keep it active and to know that it is active.. but still sometimes they dry up.. those fucks..
fiat overlap seems almost inevitable.. and maye one of the reasons to spend more time on BBQ expert friend.. because sometimes it may well be good to have some ways to directly transact with people.. instead of going back and forth through fiat systems that can get blocked.. and actually when I was in another geographical location, I had developed a pretty deep network of direct interactions.. but some geographical areas are less endowed with even possible people.. .. and sure some of them might get on board.. so maybe will be easier at some point down the road.. 10 years? 20 years? pay with lighting in local stores?.. so yeah.. we have buying and selling.. hate to deviate into the "we need transactions" talking points of the big blockers..
Can't wait to re-read the current WO posts in 2025, by which time we'll be in 6 digits and slowly marching towards the $million/coin mark. There will be dips along the way, but hey, what's new? The $100k party is already so last year... The $million party will be so awesome. There won't be any OPSEC issues, as we'll all be meeting in Bob's Virtual Ranch using our $10k VR gear, which will stimulate all 5 (6?) senses to the point of not being able to tell the difference from RL. The only remnants of the past will be BitcoinTalk, which will still be powered by SMF 1.1.19, and proudhon, who will still be predicting doom and gloom backed by math & science (and still be the party's biggest whale).
VR gear? Will I earn a token?.. gosh.. I hope not.. but one way to guard some OPSec matters..
Well.. $1million by 2025? not sure.. not sure.. I thought up to $1.5 million had a 0.5% chance for this cycle.. so it should have even better odds for next cycle.. which would include 2025.. but have not worked out the probabilities, yet... harder to really get enthusiastic.. while still stuck below the
200-week moving average, currently at $22,617 as of yesterday.
Aim for 1 BTC (not less than that, more if you can).
You are right that 1 BTC is way more reachable than what it was in the last year and a half.. but it still seems a bit high for those outside of the western world for an initial target... .. and so I still think that sticking with 0.21 BTC seems a good generally applicable starting point.. ..and of course, we can battle back and forth about this.. but even fucking normies in the western world, who hardly are able to save shit (think of BBQ guy), they need to get inspired to get the fuck off zero and to get an amount that is manageable for them.. .. yeah, if they go above the initial goal, then that's fine.. but getting to 0.21 BTC seems a great start.. like an amount that once you get it, you are not dipping into it.. and it could even take some of the folks a whole fucking long time, even though they might consider themselves as stacking sats..
Take my example of a person who I had been talking to about bitcoin since at least early 2016 (BTC prices around $400-ish), and the person even said that I was talking with them about it before that, so whatever, I cannot always remember, but my point is that this person only got involved in mid-2021.. So since the person owns a house and lives a pretty comfortable life in terms of frequently splurging on lodging or good quality food ingredients, I suggested starting at $100 per week, and the person did about $50-ish per week.
I am thinking that the person did less than $50 per week based on some of my conversations, and sometimes I have been afraid to get into some details recently because sometimes when I do talk about the topic, the person seems to have few clues about why bitcoin except number go up and that I recommended it.. and doesn't seem to do any of the homework that I gave.. hardly any maybe once in a while saying that reading had been done (I have my doubts).. .... and we know that number goes up but surely not in recent times.. not even in the past 1.5 years.. and maybe not even in the past 4.5 years if we go by our 2017 top.. ..so even smart people seem to fail/refuse to do hardly any due diligence that helps them to actually understand in any kind of meaningful way.. and so a year buying at
$50 per week is going to get such person around $2,650 invested and only about 0.06 BTC (that is ONLY worth about $1,260 currently even though $2,650 invested).. that is an affluent person who believes that s/he is taking reasonably prudent steps to hedge other investments.. whimpy for sure.. whimpy.. .. and maybe even scared and maybe even stopping the DCA when the BTC prices are low because scared..
Of course, more investment into BTC is better.. but we gotta consider to get people to get off zero first, and then to shoot for a reasonable and reachable goal.. and they likely are ONLY looking at the dollar value anyhow.. and I think that 1 BTC is too hight of a target for a newbie.. even one who might be wanting to aim towards some level of aggressiveness (non whimpiness)...
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