Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

Long-time no post, have been having a break from crypto while waiting to see where price goes while keeping an eye on latest events.

A few things I'm paying attention to right now:

• According to FTX bankruptcy filings, they don't hold any Bitcoin. Likely they never did. Therefore there won't be any future Bitcoin liquidations from this entity.
• Ie based on these proceedings, a sell-off of BTC from this exchange can be ruled out, unlike like 3AC/Luna liquidations that forced prices lower.
• Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

A few points on price right now:

• Most speculators are again now expecting at least $14K, or more likely $12K, even $10K. Nothing has really changed here, only increased bearish conviction.
• To this point; I can fully understand why. There is a massive trading gap between $17.5K and $12K (ie no support), despite accumulation at current prices.
• Ironically if BTC had held $30K until recently prior to dropping to $15K, many would instead consider this a bottom, as would be very similar as 2018 capitulation.

A few other random thoughts:

I think it's too early to tell where price heads next, probably as many wait to see how far the contagion spreads, and whether it leads to further liquidations. Nobody really knows how far it will spread either, without insider knowledge that is. Either below $15.5K we finally reach the most bearish targets, or a move back above $18K could lead lead to a bullish monthly close above $19.5K.

The positives to take away from this recent capitulation is that based on volume as well as time, the recent drop is more than sufficient for a bottom. The only lacking factor is an -83% correction similar to previous cycles towards $12K, as many anticipate, despite this current cycle being very different to others (double top without parabolic move to end bull trend).

As for inflation, recession? Bitcoin has so far preformed better this year in it's bear market than in 2018. One year after ATH and it's down -77% compared to -83%. Notably in 2015 the bear market took 13.5 months to reach -83%, so clearly there is still time for further downside, but otherwise inflation hasn't caused price to collapse further than usual - only quicker than usual.

There are three things which are keeping me optimistic that we're not going to see the price go much lower.

Firstly, following the FTX debacle, there's been a huge removal of coins from exchanges, through fear of whether exchanges hold sufficient reserves. NYKNYC, etc. This increase of scarcity of BTC on exchanges could support (maybe increase?) the price as demand exceeds supply.

Secondly, there's no reason for the FTX contagion to spread beyond shitcoins and into BTC (other than misconceived and ill-educated opinion)

Thirdly, BTC tends to do what's least expected - so if the masses (with their misconceived and ill-educated opinion, fuelled also by MSM) are expecting contagion to flow into BTC and cause panic sells then.....it probably won't happen.

Hey, I'm just trying to be optimistic here

[HI-TEC99]

...Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

...

It's unlikely to be coinbase. It's CEO say's so.

[AlcoHoDL]

Do I remember correctly, that some time ago (2020-2021) there were some WOers that were posting about lending BTC to Celsius and similar sites to earn interest? I also remember other WOers warning them about the possibility of losing their coins, stressing the importance of NYKNYC and all...

I sincerely hope the damage was minimal or at least manageable. Let this serve as a lesson to all, affected or not, that uncontrollable greed is a dangerous thing that can take your coins, your sanity and even your life.

Speaking of greed, isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

[toknormal]

isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

Looks like we are now at the end of the road for bitcoin appreciation. Now fully capitalised and valuations will probably hover between 20k and 60k from here on in.

The price has now dipped well below the last market peak from the 4 year cycle instead of staying above it as in previous cycles and the logarithmic long term trend has now levelled off, so stock-to-flow worked for a while but we've even departed form that = projections on the future based on hopium of the past 

[Shaha98]

$BTC is poised for a short relief rally to test the resistance under the $18,000 level. 📈

What are your price targets?




https://twitter.com/TheMoonCarl/status/1592480072723828737?t=eU2xzil4R1l458-kMVgObg&s=19

[BitcoinBunny]

Do I remember correctly, that some time ago (2020-2021) there were some WOers that were posting about lending BTC to Celsius and similar sites to earn interest? I also remember other WOers warning them about the possibility of losing their coins, stressing the importance of NYKNYC and all...

I sincerely hope the damage was minimal or at least manageable. Let this serve as a lesson to all, affected or not, that uncontrollable greed is a dangerous thing that can take your coins, your sanity and even your life.

Speaking of greed, isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

There was at least one guy posting about how great it was and several asking him questions.

Could just be a bunch of infiltrating celsius assholes as I don't think they were WO longtimers.


I've very much tried to stick to the rule "if it sounds too good to be true, it most likely is" ever since acquiring BTC and try to ignore anything that is clearly invented to siphen my BTC or gains away.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dubaian]

 

[jojo69]

I've very much tried to stick to the rule "if it sounds too good to be true, it most likely is" ever since acquiring BTC and try to ignore anything that is clearly invented to siphen my BTC or gains away.

[philipma1957]

isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

Looks like we are now at the end of the road for bitcoin appreciation. Now fully capitalised and valuations will probably hover between 20k and 60k from here on in.

The price has now dipped well below the last market peak from the 4 year cycle instead of staying above it as in previous cycles and the logarithmic long term trend has now levelled off, so stock-to-flow worked for a while but we've even departed form that = projections on the future based on hopium of the past  

I wish I did not believe this.

I think the bankers have figure out how to yo yo BTC in a range.

Maybe 15-60k
Maybe 12-80k

if true LTC/DOGE will be the long term winner in crypto.

I wish I was younger to see it play out.

Say 2070 or 2080

I won't get to see that time  as I would be 113 to 123 years old then.

But maybe you are wrong. and it grows well over 500k btw it would need to be over 500k to be successful in 2060

[UnDerDoG81]

Honestly, if we done with the FTX dump, it was not as worse as it should have been. Just proves we near bottom. Down 2k after this massive attack on Crypto. This was bigger than Mtgox. I keep skeptical because of the coming recession so I will keep some fiat instead of jamming all into Bitcoin now but still surprised.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

But maybe you are wrong. and it grows well over 500k btw it would need to be over 500k to be successful in 2060

Whatever doesn't kill you...

Bitcoin will surpass $500k. You will be alive and well to witness it being worth more than $1M.

[dragonvslinux]

Long-time no post, have been having a break from crypto while waiting to see where price goes while keeping an eye on latest events.

A few things I'm paying attention to right now:

• According to FTX bankruptcy filings, they don't hold any Bitcoin. Likely they never did. Therefore there won't be any future Bitcoin liquidations from this entity.
• Ie based on these proceedings, a sell-off of BTC from this exchange can be ruled out, unlike like 3AC/Luna liquidations that forced prices lower.
• Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

A few points on price right now:

• Most speculators are again now expecting at least $14K, or more likely $12K, even $10K. Nothing has really changed here, only increased bearish conviction.
• To this point; I can fully understand why. There is a massive trading gap between $17.5K and $12K (ie no support), despite accumulation at current prices.
• Ironically if BTC had held $30K until recently prior to dropping to $15K, many would instead consider this a bottom, as would be very similar as 2018 capitulation.

A few other random thoughts:

I think it's too early to tell where price heads next, probably as many wait to see how far the contagion spreads, and whether it leads to further liquidations. Nobody really knows how far it will spread either, without insider knowledge that is. Either below $15.5K we finally reach the most bearish targets, or a move back above $18K could lead lead to a bullish monthly close above $19.5K.

The positives to take away from this recent capitulation is that based on volume as well as time, the recent drop is more than sufficient for a bottom. The only lacking factor is an -83% correction similar to previous cycles towards $12K, as many anticipate, despite this current cycle being very different to others (double top without parabolic move to end bull trend).

As for inflation, recession? Bitcoin has so far preformed better this year in it's bear market than in 2018. One year after ATH and it's down -77% compared to -83%. Notably in 2015 the bear market took 13.5 months to reach -83%, so clearly there is still time for further downside, but otherwise inflation hasn't caused price to collapse further than usual - only quicker than usual.

There are three things which are keeping me optimistic that we're not going to see the price go much lower.

Firstly, following the FTX debacle, there's been a huge removal of coins from exchanges, through fear of whether exchanges hold sufficient reserves. NYKNYC, etc. This increase of scarcity of BTC on exchanges could support (maybe increase?) the price as demand exceeds supply.

In reality, exchanges balances have steadily decreased since April 2020 after some sideways consolidation last year. More relevantly since breaking $30K it has continued to decline and has so far failed to provide any sort of "liquidity squeeze", so I doubt it'd have much effect in the immediate term. This is more about the longer-term effects when price reverses imo.

It won't have any effect until demand exceeds supply (such as post covid crash), but so far this isn't the case. The continued decreasing exchange supply - that could certainly continue to lower without positive price action - is more likely to have an effect in providing a much slower re-distribution period, for example sometime next year. Ie once price begins to move back to the upside, there would much less supply to satisfy demand until considerably higher levels. Even in 2019 price increased by 4x while liquidity was relatively high and continued climbing. I don't think we've ever really seen what happens when Bitcoin reaches a bottom with such low liquidity in exchanges, as previously it's been when exchanges balances have been much higher and rising. Unless there's a lot more fractional reserves than we're aware of...

Secondly, there's no reason for the FTX contagion to spread beyond shitcoins and into BTC (other than misconceived and ill-educated opinion)

Unless other exchanges fall that actually hold Bitcoin, those that are inter-linked with hedge funds that are getting liquidated. But otherwise I agree.

Thirdly, BTC tends to do what's least expected - so if the masses (with their misconceived and ill-educated opinion, fuelled also by MSM) are expecting contagion to flow into BTC and cause panic sells then.....it probably won't happen.

I think this is more true than ever. Though likely to be more relevant with a rebound back to $20K with most people expecting a rejection between $25K and $30K. Then we could see prices return to $50K to $60K based on a decent liquidity squeeze sometime next year. There has been accumulation for too long now, around a year, what's likely to follow is a years worth of distribution at much higher prices. Just imo.

[LDL]

Bitcoin not under crypto
But
Crypto under Bitcoin

-by Michael Saylor



T

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Republikcoin.com]

Honestly, if we done with the FTX dump, it was not as worse as it should have been. Just proves we near bottom. Down 2k after this massive attack on Crypto. This was bigger than Mtgox. I keep skeptical because of the coming recession so I will keep some fiat instead of jamming all into Bitcoin now but still surprised.

It is proper to put money in many areas or places and it is not recommended to put money in one place only. Because if your goal is to make lots and lots of profits, then putting money into lots of businesses and investments is a very good solution. Because when you experience losses in one business, you still have hope in other businesses. But if you just want to save money to spend in life during a recession, I don't know what advice to give you.

[Phil_S]

What happened at Alameda Research

Sam Bankman-Fried was erratic, rash, and potentially incompetent

Why might SBF be so insistent on intentionally oversizing his bets? Purely because of intellectual confusion about what strategy is optimal for long-run growth? An alternative hypothesis is that, beyond any natural proclivity to risk-taking, he may have been taking dopaminergic drugs (prescribed for for Parkinson’s disease) as a nootropic. These drugs as well known to cause risky behavior such as compulsive gambling or shopping sprees.

Autism Capital recently shared an account from an ex-FTX employee recounting how SBF encouraged extreme use of stimulants:



What is particularly notable, however, is SBF’s usage of “patch[es] for … stimulants.” In a follow-up Tweet, Autism Capital reports that the patches are Emsam (US brand name for selegiline), a MAO-B inhibitor used to treat Parkinson’s which increases levels of dopamine in the brain.

Dopaminergic medications for Parkinson’s disease have long been associated with extreme risk-taking.

Overall, it seems very likely that SBF’s propensity to take extreme levels of risk was elevated to preternaturally high levels via heavy, habitual usage of amphetamines and selegiline, causing him to rationalize nonsensical strategies as optimal via convoluted “linear wealth utility” reasoning.

Note that PD medications have also been strongly associated with the development of compulsive shopping. FTX’s massive spending on advertisements and branding partnerships may very well have been a ploy to attract deposits, but it may also have been driven, in part, by SBF’s continual abuse of these drugs. For example, there are reports that a $12 million ad campaign with famous Japanese baseball Shohei Ohtani was killed after a single day on air. Similarly, FTX acquired naming rights to the e-sports organization TSM for a stunning $210 millionーfar out of line with comparable deals in the e-sports industry. Even his property acquisitions are stunning, with a reportedly $200m real estate portfolio in the Bahamas. These cannot be rationalized as risky bets with positive expected value, and only make sense in the context of executive management which is either incompetent or, as we suggest, literally drugged up and on a multi-year shopping spree.

[cAPSLOCK]

So ...

Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up.  Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING.  Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine?  Then nudge him further and further into the red 'till they set up the collapse.  Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...

Nah.  Just a ponzi prolly.

I'm just going to quote this from time to time until I either come out dead wrong, or...

Well let's hope for dead wrong.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation