Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X
As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.
That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.
I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...
Many of us already have a pretty good sense that bitcoin is many multitudes, likely magnitudes and probably around 100 to 1,000x more valuable than gold. So it hardly makes any sense to either stay below gold's value or to even stay around gold parity... so just for reference sake bitcoin would need to reach about $500k to be at gold parity, and currently bitcoin is less than 1/20th the price of gold...
It can take a while for these ideas to sink in and/or to be reflected in the BTC price, but it seems as if there are quite decent odds that bitcoin will achieve the parity of gold this cycle or the following cycle, and then start to exceed it by many multitudes and even magnitudes in the subsequent cycles..
And, surely these kinds of price rises can happen a lot faster than expected - even if in the short term, there are some of us bitcoiners (and even potential investors into bitcoin) who are having existential crises involving how much bitcoin's value has been being diluted by various kinds of fractional reserve practices, including but not limited to the ability of folks to buy bitcoin exposure, but the third parties are in the practice of not even buying bitcoin to make sure that they are adequately able to cover that bitcoin exposure that their clients thought that they had purchased.
It remains difficult to know about the solution regarding whether scaring institutional investors away might be helpful when various states seem to be sponsoring these kinds of attacks on bitcoin, even though many of us envision situations in which those naked shorted BTC end up getting reckt as fuck because they do not have the BTC that they claim to have - while at the same time, many of us still are likely suffering from doubts about whether the theory can get put the practice when the third parties are not holding the BTC that they claim to hold.
I did recently go from having about 10-11% of my BTC on exchanges, and now I have around 8%-ish on exchanges. I might remove another 1-2% in the coming week. I am still working out some of my books - and some of my storage mechanisms.. adding some new features.. so maybe even I will end up continuing down the road of less and less exchange (and third-party) exposure, while at the same time, there still can be some issues regarding how to manage being able to cash out.. whether just converting into cash or being able to spend in various areas and even being able to have interchanges with various people directly... so I am not inclined to completely sever my relationship with various ways that I might interact with third parties, while at the same time, many of us know that they deserve to be able to profit from providing services for us, but not at the expense of running off with our bitcoin.... or NOT having our bitcoin when we want to claim possession of it.
Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X
As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.
That would mean BTC can never exceed gold.
I doubt that this progression will be valid forever...
there is a bit of a paradox in bitcoin behavior so far.
Let me formulate it:
Bitcoin's bull stages appear to be progressively shallower from the bottom (at depicted above-from 580X to 113X to 22X), but downward plunges changed only marginally; from -94% to -87% to -84% to, currently, -77.5%. Therefore, if the trend continues and our next top is, say, 150K, then -70% down would be 45K and if only a marginal top in 80K vicinity, then $24K bottom in 2026-2027, which would be quite brutal in comparison with even the 2021 top. I don't know what to make of it. I always thought that IF bulls were to become shallower, then bears would be as well, but SO FAR, it did not really happen (at least not as much). Anyone with an explanation?
TL;DR If bull parts of the cycle became shallower, why bear phases are almost as relentless as two cycle ago?
Yes.. I will agree that we cannot really know what the fuck is going to happen.
But still, you seem to be way overly formulaic with your attempts to apply technical analysis to BTC price performance cycles, and king daddy could give less than two shits about your limited math applications... even if they are "logically correct," so far.
You seem to be acting as if BTC has discontinued to be an paradigm shifting phenomena and stopped traversing through exponential s-curve adoption.
To me.. bitcoin seems to be continuing to be growing and all of its network effects seem to be continuing to grow, even if there are some set backs here and there and even if its price has not been performing very greatedly in the past 6 months or so.
[edited out]
maybe because "we will tame Bitcoin"....
Were "they" "taming" my lil precious very well between September 2020 and November 2021?
I'm not a sexist.
You sexist!!!!
@ caps
well my data set on large fees for miners is correct.
Since you do not think it is harmful and I do think it may be harmful.
Only time will tell if LN means btc works or not.
2060 we will have a pretty good idea.
If I am alive by then I will buy you a drink or two. Even if I am right and you are wrong.
You better have your drinks delivered to your private Island, since you might not be able to walk very well at 103 years old. Hopefully, your 0.21 BTC stash lasts that long.
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