Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

[Hueristic]

...I don't claim to know...

If you ever do the math it would be an interesting read.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[FinePoine0]

900 #BTC    mined every day.

In just 4 years and 10 months, only 225 BTC mined every day.

[Biodom]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior. BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

[Out of mind]

Here is why Bitcoin is going to $300,000+ within 24 months

Blackrock ETF expected to be around $5 Billion

This means Blackrock have to acquire the Bitcoin so it can be traded, so they will naturally have price impact.

Around $1 Billion in buying pressure moves Bitcoin around 10%

So on their own, Blackrock will move Bitcoin to around $35-40k

From there you have a new ETF launching, that means lots of hype and promotion

It will be the worlds most anticipated ETF ever

Likely with all this news coverage the price will reach its previous all time high.

From here Bitcoin halving will kick in

This halves the block reward meaning bitcoin has to double in price so miners can keep making money so the price will double again to around $140,000

From there, now bitcoin has full momentum. New VC. Huge institutional investment.

This new wave of adoption propels Bitcoin another 2x in price to around $300,000

The top of the stock to flow would be around $360,000 so expect a peak between $300,000 and $360,000

THE BULL MARKET IS COMING BACK.

https://twitter.com/MartiniGuyYT/status/1671440490867073026?t=PaQG2e4QzSZeWVRtxQYxYw&s=19

[FinePoine0]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Buddy I will be going to bed early tonight wake me up to 31k in 10 hours please.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior. BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

Be reminded of this quote:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.msg1647#msg1647

Your solution to a problem, that very well may or may not happen, will be more of a detriment to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Forcing people to act a certain way in order to keep participating?.. where to next?

Changing the rules mid game is the reason why we are in this situation. Dollar back by faith not gold, money printer go brrr! de-valuation of your money and time, etc etc.

I have to strongly disagree with you that bitcoin will eventually "evaporate". If we humans are so dumb to "lose access" to every single bitcoin, every single sat, then we have bigger issues to worry about.

Historical human behavior, relatively short in the grand scheme of things, has shown, we are exceptionally good at doing what humans do, and that is survive!

[FinePoine0]

Come on man, stay above 30K. 

Watching the rising price of Bitcoin is like seeing the sun rise every day.
 We are running towards a bull market and will aim for a quick end.

And invested assets are growing ....

[RewFrew]

A huge day for crypto. I’m seeing a lot of 10%+ gains out there and a big day for Bitcoin as well. I feel like this rally has some legs. There aren’t many more crypto entities for the government to attack, so we’re left with fewer worries as all eyes turn to mtgox. I think once that distribution is made, we’re likely to see the start of a massive bull run.

Exactly Bitcoin gain 10% within short time. After long time we saw huge movement for Bitcoin. It think bear market is so far we entire in real bull market. Ignoring a hundred obstacles Bitcoin gaining. It is good for all cryptocurrency. I think continue this situation 2023 will good for crypto. And Bitcoin price will go new ATH end of this year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior. BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

Considering the fact that 1 BTC = 100,000,000 sat, the major BTC losses early in its history (Satoshi's "lost" coins, other large coin losses due to dumped HDDs, forgotten pins/seeds, etc.) can be diluted out, thus maintaining a pretty large count in available monetary transaction units (sat), while at the same time effectively raising the value of Bitcoin by absorbing and sharing the inactive units' value across all HoDLers. Of course, dormant addresses can potentially be reactivated at any moment, and the price will readjust for this. It is a beautiful, adaptive system that has proven time and time again that it works, and it works very robustly.

As for the 1.36% per year of lost coins, I expect this number to drop significantly when the big players jump in and the general public realizes the value of Bitcoin and how important it will be in the future of the global monetary system. It's easier to lose a worthless object than one which you almost know for a fact that is going to be worth millions in the near future.

Regardless, if the situation that you describe ever happens, there will be future BIPs that will take care of it, in a carefully planned and controlled manner, respecting the consensus rules, as has happened in the past. After 14+ years of near-perfect, proven performance, I do not fear the scenario you describe. The code will adapt as needed and when needed.

[tainted_love]

WTF is this?  Is this a bot?  I lvoe this bot.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior. BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

Be reminded of this quote:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.msg1647#msg1647

Your solution to a problem, that very well may or may not happen, will be more of a detriment to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Forcing people to act a certain way in order to keep participating?.. where to next?

Changing the rules mid game is the reason why we are in this situation. Dollar back by faith not gold, money printer go brrr! de-valuation of your money and time, etc etc.

I have to strongly disagree with you that bitcoin will eventually "evaporate". If we humans are so dumb to "lose access" to every single bitcoin, every single sat, then we have bigger issues to worry about.

Historical human behavior, relatively short in the grand scheme of things, has shown, we are exceptionally good at doing what humans do, and that is survive!

I wish you were right.
However, if we continue to lose 1.36% of all btc a year, then it is a problem, isn't it?
Now, that you found that quote, it looks like that the 256 year 'solution' was really an omission from him than intent.
I can only think that he wasn't aware of the scope of the problem back in 2010, because the argument that "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more" holds water only until all are lost, which is a finite amount of time, especially if it is that much a year (less than 60 years).

Whatever solutions I wrote in-I don't care about them, just a small suggestion, it could be something else, but the eventual "evaporation" problem is real and cannot be dismissed easily, and even mathematically as long as the loss is material and there is no add-ons after 2140.

[Biodom]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior. BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

<snip>
Regardless, if the situation that you describe ever happens, there will be future BIPs that will take care of it, in a carefully planned and controlled manner, respecting the consensus rules, as has happened in the past. After 14+ years of near-perfect, proven performance, I do not fear the scenario you describe. The code will adapt as needed and when needed.

Well, if BIP-42 took care of a problem that would not have occurred until 256-7 (in 2016)=249 year from 2016, then why not determine how much is actually lost and the rate of the current loss (which could very well be a fraction of 1.36%/year), maybe each 10 years going forward?

Knowing this parameter, you would project when all would be lost and then count backwards and start putting in those "future BIPs" you are talking about.

It's very well may be that this needs to be done rather soon (maybe 10-20 years).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

I wish you were right.
However, if we continue to lose 1.36% of all btc a year, then it is a problem, isn't it?
Now, that you found that quote, it looks like that the 256 year 'solution' was really an omission from him than intent.
I can only think that he wasn't aware of the scope of the problem back in 2010, because the argument that "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more" holds water only until all are lost, which is a finite amount of time, especially if it is that much a year (less than 60 years).

Whatever solutions I wrote in-I don't care about them, just a small suggestion, it could be something else, but the eventual "evaporation" problem is real and cannot be dismissed easily, and even mathematically as long as the loss is material and there is no add-ons after 2140.

I think it is about being realistic more than being right...

And this 1.36% you are referring, would only be an estimate, as know one will know how many keys have been lost/misplaced or a boating accident.

But lets just assume 1.36% is correct for a minute....

Also is it 1.36% of total supply (approx 21M) or total current supply?

Applying that 1.36% to 21M vs Current Supply would yield a completely different set of results.

Let's use the Fixed Value of 21M....
Year 1: 285,600BTC lost each year
Year 2: 285,600BTC lost each year
Year 3: 285,600BTC lost each year
Year 4: 285,600BTC lost each year
......
After 75 years.. ZERO Access to ALL Coins....

Every 4 Years we lost 1M Bitcoins? in 40Years we will lose half of all bitcoins....

At year 73 there will be 436,800BTC left in circulation, which means 1 in every 2 coins will be lost!

In year 75 everyone's key vanishes?

If you use the 1.36% on current circulating supply... Then it will take 1,231 Years before there is 1BTC left in circulation.

Just being realistic man... i am sure if we were down to our last drinkable water supply, we do everything in our power to keep it from evaporating away!