Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

OK, what's the FUD this week?

FTX drama all over again. Debtors just recovered 7 billion USD.

Debtors have recovered approximately $7 billion in liquid assets from FTX, according to new court documents.

FTX debtors recover $7B, say investigation has been ‘extraordinarily challenging’

I doubt they have much Bitcoin to sell

why not have some btc. if 7 billion was found only 8.5 billion was missing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Wrathofcoins]

Whatever effect brrr has, it takes years if not decades to play out.
With the electorate that cannot put two and two together, the effects are unclear.
Of course, 'hiding' in bitcoin provides some solace.

Gov debt is at 30+ tril, right?
Now, imagine it at 40 tril...basically the "same" thing.
Then, 50 tril....same vibe.
It works until it doesn't....but it is unknowable when that happens.

I can see some situation developing in maybe 10 years, though, as by then the Trust fund for social security would be depleted (google it, projected numbers are from 2032-2034) and boomers would "suddenly" lose 20-24% of their social security payments. That would be a "joke" millennials could play on them in lieu of "making" most of real estate unaffordable.

Well in the end this its the actual stage of capitalism, full consumption.

Owning its forbidden. The WEF said it clearly and loud," you are not gonna own nothing, but you are gonna be happy ". Sounds more like a evangelic church right?

[Gachapin]

OK, what's the FUD this week?

FTX drama all over again. Debtors just recovered 7 billion USD.

Debtors have recovered approximately $7 billion in liquid assets from FTX, according to new court documents.

FTX debtors recover $7B, say investigation has been ‘extraordinarily challenging’

I doubt they have much Bitcoin to sell

why not have some btc. if 7 billion was found only 8.5 billion was missing.

The last thing I remembered was that they had no BTC deposits  ...although customers paid for them.

Now that 7 billion were (coughcough) "found",  they actually might have some BTC.
If so, it depends on the BTC being returned to the creditors or sold:

...FTX is negotiating with stakeholders about options for restarting its crypto exchange...

reuters

For a restart they would have to sell assets, but I doubt they restart.  

[Gachapin]

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

My rule 0 is someone has a better model than you unless this is something you do full-time and their gain will likely be your loss.

overlooked your comment.

True. Cannot argue with that. One could add that it's not only about the better model but also about the deeper pockets.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Rant 

Dirty fiat bank "reward":

5% savings account (only balances up to £5000)
"only" costs £5 per month.

So, at most you can "earn" £250 dirty fiat and you have to pay £60 for that privilege.
So basically it's a 3.8% savings account (BOE rate IS 5%).

And I bet most people will look at that think it's cheap, put £2000 on there and wonder why they only get £40 by the end of the year  (effective 2% then).
They will also sucker people in who will only add £500 and even make a profit from them.

Disgusting.

Dirty fiat banks NEVER do anything to YOUR advantage.

[goldkingcoiner]

Can someone explain to me why the ETF fanbois think that fourth time's the charm for a Bitcoin ETF? What exactly will the difference be this time?

[Gachapin]

Can someone explain to me why the ETF fanbois think that fourth time's the charm for a Bitcoin ETF? What exactly will the difference be this time?

Blackrock's success rate of ETF approvals?  ..and their size?

Actually Bitcoiners don't really need an ETF, nocoiner institutions do...

But I guess we could all live with the associated price rise

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

[Gachapin]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Bd officer]

#Bitcoin adoption speeds up around the world as 🇺🇸 US regulators put on the brakes


Source: Twitter

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cmacwuz]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

A statistic quoted from an outsider like stanley duckenmiller takes nothing into account, like lost BTC or Satoshi's coins (I am assuming).

[philipma1957]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

A statistic quoted from an outsider like stanley duckenmiller takes nothing into account, like lost BTC or Satoshi's coins (I am assuming).

well there are millions of unmoved coins.

In 2017 there were

10.5
  5.25


15.75  2016 1/2ing add 1 million

maybe 16.75 in circulation of which at least 2.75 were 'frozen or lost'

leaves 14 mill free

so 2.345 million sold out of 14 mill = 83% hold

or 2.345 mill sold out of 16.75 = 86% hold


so the 2.75 million 'frozen' out of 16.75 million mine

only moves the number 3%


Truly impressive as it means many did not take profits.

As of Jan 1 2017 ATH was about 1400 and from Jan to Dec about 365 x 144 x 12.5 = 660k coins mined (rounded up)

So 16.75m-0.660m = 16.09 mill coins were at a cost value under 1400 in December 2017 when price was 19900

so 14.2x1 at a minimum for 16 mill coins and only 2.345 million got sold

that is fucking really impressive.

There are many long term players in the world of BTC. Assuming the 86 or adjusted 83% are true numbers.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com