Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[God Of Thunder]

Today I read about which exchanges provide proof of reserves and which don't. If some of them provide proof of reserves, how do they do it? More importantly, how transparent is that? Some exchanges transfer their funds to somewhere else after the audit ends and take snapshots of their reserves.

Here is the case from Crypto.com

While the practice of PoR is becoming accepted by centralized exchanges with many starting to release PoR audit data, there is still the issue of crypto platforms moving their funds right after the snapshot for the audit was taken.

Crypto.com recently transferred 280,000 Ether To Gate.io address after it released its PoR audit, fueling rumors about crypto exchanges potentially faking their reserve audits. Many in the crypto community claimed exchanges were borrowing assets to show a healthy financial book, only to return them back right after the snapshot.

Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek came out to clarify that the $400 million ETH transfer was a mistake and was meant to be sent to another cold wallet, raising even more suspicion.

And, while some exchanges give detailed breakdowns of their reserves during a PoR, other firms simply provide quick responses claiming they are in the black. Nexo has simply come up with a one-page snapshot that says they have more assets than customer deposits of around $3.2 billion.

Even after the audit, you cannot trust an exchange that they won't transfer its funds to somewhere else, just like Crypto.com did.

What is the solution?

Don't trust, Verify!
Only use exchanges that provide proof of reserves with complete transparency. Some exchanges share the wallet address of their reserves, and you can always check those wallets on the blockchain.

Here are the top 10 exchanges and their stats

SL	Exchange Name	Provide PoR?	Reserve Data Link
1	Binance	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/binance/#reserve
2	Coinbase Exchange	No	No data
3	Kraken	No	No data
5	Kucoin	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/kucoin/#reserve
5	ByBit	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bybit/#reserve
6	OKX	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/okx/#reserve
7	Bitstamp	No	No data
8	Bitfinex	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bitfinex/#reserve
9	Gate.io	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/gate-io/#reserve
10	Gemini	Yes	https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/gemini/#reserve

You can verify those exchanges' Proof of reserves from the internet. You should avoid exchanges that don't provide Proof of reserves or even if they claim that they provide, but it's not transparent.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@CooliganFields
🍒👀

https://twitter.com/cooliganfields/status/1673536243592830976


2024/25, we’re all getting gf’s.

[xhomerx10]

Exchanges can borrow coin in order to pass an audit.  NYKNYC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cmacwuz]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

A statistic quoted from an outsider like stanley duckenmiller takes nothing into account, like lost BTC or Satoshi's coins (I am assuming).

...

leaves 14 mill free

so 2.345 million sold out of 14 mill = 83% hold

or 2.345 mill sold out of 16.75 = 86% hold


so the 2.75 million 'frozen' out of 16.75 million mine

only moves the number 3%


Truly impressive as it means many did not take profits.

As of Jan 1 2017 ATH was about 1400 and from Jan to Dec about 365 x 144 x 12.5 = 660k coins mined (rounded up)

So 16.75m-0.660m = 16.09 mill coins were at a cost value under 1400 in December 2017 when price was 19900

so 14.2x1 at a minimum for 16 mill coins and only 2.345 million got sold

that is fucking really impressive.

There are many long term players in the world of BTC. Assuming the 86 or adjusted 83% are true numbers.

Maybe I missed something but where does the 2.345M BTC sold number come from? Either way, 86% of bitcoin might have not moved, but it would be quite improbable for that to entail 86% of holders did not sell. It could be that 2 large holders did not budge. Or maybe every holder sold  14% of their  btc in 2017.  

Aside the point, the Ducknmiller's zealot diagnosis is right. Separation of money and state changes things, and people want change.

[philipma1957]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!



https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

A statistic quoted from an outsider like stanley duckenmiller takes nothing into account, like lost BTC or Satoshi's coins (I am assuming).

...

leaves 14 mill free

so 2.345 million sold out of 14 mill = 83% hold

or 2.345 mill sold out of 16.75 = 86% hold


so the 2.75 million 'frozen' out of 16.75 million mine

only moves the number 3%


Truly impressive as it means many did not take profits.

As of Jan 1 2017 ATH was about 1400 and from Jan to Dec about 365 x 144 x 12.5 = 660k coins mined (rounded up)

So 16.75m-0.660m = 16.09 mill coins were at a cost value under 1400 in December 2017 when price was 19900

so 14.2x1 at a minimum for 16 mill coins and only 2.345 million got sold

that is fucking really impressive.

There are many long term players in the world of BTC. Assuming the 86 or adjusted 83% are true numbers.

Maybe I missed something but where does the 2.345M BTC sold number come from? Either way, 86% of bitcoin might have not moved, but it would be quite improbable for that to entail 86% of holders did not sell. It could be that 2 large holders did not budge. Or maybe every holder sold  14% of their  btc in 2017.  

Aside the point, the Ducknmiller's zealot diagnosis is right. Separation of money and state changes things, and people want change.

1.00-.86 = .14

thus 14% of 16.75 million coins held in dec 2017 sold in the large drop from 19,900 dec  2017 to 3900  in feb 2020.

that is 2.345 million unloaded of 16.75 million if zero coins were satoshi or lost.

or 2.345 million unloaded of 14 million   if you say 2.75 million were lost or satoshi coins.

one way you get 86% if all coins exist
but the other way you get 83% if you say 2.75 million are lost or frozen.

either way the stats are amazing. especially if you take satoshi coin and lost coin out.

2.345/14.0 = 16.75% sold and 83.25% held this is a stunning number to me. As I pulled 2.75 million coins away from the 16.75 that existed and the hold number is 83.25 %

But the original number as 14% sold and 86% held and I simply do not know how true it is.

[OgNasty]

Exchanges can borrow coin in order to pass an audit.  NYKNYC.

It did appear this was occurring during the FTX debacle. You saw the headlines of massive amounts of funds being moved between exchanges. Certainly there was some bad behavior going on there. Auditing of crypto companies should be dead simple, so it’s a shame that gaming audits is so easily possible and allowed. I’m sure real banks don’t do this…

[cygan]

good old germany

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Out of mind]

$27 trillion is coming...
https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1673436174222852098?t=b0t0g5OdXtvr1lovcEsUiQ&s=19

[JayJuanGee]

Buckle up, buckaroos.

Coin up, coinaroos.
 

That's a very cornie expression....

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848
2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf

But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....

My rule 0 is someone has a better model than you unless this is something you do full-time and their gain will likely be your loss.

overlooked your comment.

True. Cannot argue with that. One could add that it's not only about the better model but also about the deeper pockets.

I have issues with these various theories about "manipulation," and sure bigger players might be able to play their hands better, and they might even have some abilities to get access to insider information (or perhaps even see how the markets might move with their own deployment of capital); however, most people still have to figure out their own strategies, including figuring out how much they are even going to enter into the game.

And, yeah, maybe we (the three of us) are saying similar things, but still I get senses of futility coming out of both of you (Gachapin and Richy_T).. or at least you seem to be somewhat heavily subscribing to ideas that the cards are stacked against the little guy... and maybe that is somewhat true, but not so much with bitcoin.  Bitcoin is and has been an investment in which the little guy (retail) have been able to front run the BIGGER players, and since we are still early (believe it or not), the little guy (retail) can still front run the BIGGER players.. even if s/he is a newbie no coiner or a low coiner - who might be in the earlier stages of building the size of his/her bitcoin stash.

So who cares whatever the supposed manipulators are doing and their various strategies, the little guy (retail) can figure out his own situation and attempt to be as aggressive as he feels (believes) that s/he is capable of being in terms of stacking sats without getting reckt.. and the information is already available to him/her.. stack as many sats as you can, and likely in 4-10 years (or maybe a little longer) you will be in a much better place.. so long as you have been mostly focused on accumulating through various buying strategies, such as DCA, buying on dips and lump sum buying, and don't be fucking around with selling as an accumulation strategy, until you are well into profits and until you are largely over invested in bitcoin.. and ONLY you can figure out those various thresholds.. perhaps practicing and studying along the way, and don't get too worked up or worried if their might be some folks (such as BIG players) who you believe that might be doing better than you, when in fact, since you are still early, there are a lot of players, including BIG players who still have little to no clue about the idea of building a bitcoin portfolio and aggressively stacking sats.

[God Of Thunder]

Exchanges can borrow coin in order to pass an audit.  NYKNYC.

Exactly.
In this case, you should check their wallet instead of relying on some 3rd party audits.

[Hamza2424]

$27 trillion is coming...

Haha, buddy what are you saying, do you really know?
$27T are they going to sell all their assets to just buy Bitcoins, Yeah this is my dream as well to watch Bitcoin the most capital-holding asset ever in my life but 27T is not at all possible in the coming 2 halvings at least.

Just Imagine 1% Only which can be a reality if if SEC doesn't fuck up the ongoing ETF approvals, I will be $270B currently exchanged or you can say the Liquid supply available in the market for these Giants is just 11% to 12%. According to the current market price it is worth only around $300B.

Now enjoy the moment of joy, if they bring this capital directly in the Bitcoin boom you'll see a new ATH just lead by this investment of 1%, hope so you've got it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

good old germany

Australia is not 32% for long term capital gains.

You actually get a 50% discount on capital gains tax for assets held longer than 12months. Based on your marginal tax rate.

Depending on which marginal tax brackets you are in, your paying 16.25% / 18.5% or 22.5%

[JayJuanGee]

We also have some devoted religious zealots here!
https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1673380889231867924

A statistic quoted from an outsider like stanley duckenmiller takes nothing into account, like lost BTC or Satoshi's coins (I am assuming).

Does that significantly change your argument?  Instead of having 86% of bitcoin HODLers not moving their coins, instead you have 76% or maybe 66%?

How much does that contribute to your argument in which the liquid supply of bitcoin that is moving around is still a minority of the available coins - even though surely I can see the difference between 86% and 66%, if that were a realistic change in the numbers.

$27 trillion is coming...

Haha, buddy what are you saying, do you really know?
$27T are they going to sell all their assets to just buy Bitcoins, Yeah this is my dream as well to watch Bitcoin the most capital-holding asset ever in my life but 27T is not at all possible in the coming 2 halvings at least.

Just Imagine 1% Only which can be a reality if if SEC doesn't fuck up the ongoing ETF approvals, I will be $270B currently exchanged or you can say the Liquid supply available in the market for these Giants is just 11% to 12%. According to the current market price it is worth only around $300B.

Now enjoy the moment of joy, if they bring this capital directly in the Bitcoin boom you'll see a new ATH just lead by this investment of 1%, hope so you've got it.

Yes.. I was going to make a similar kind of commentary to Out of mind...   which would be that 1% to 10%  ($270 million to $2.7 trillion) would be feasible for these kinds of institutions to invest into bitcoin if they were really putting their money where their mouths are (or at least in terms of recommending that clients allocate in that kind of a 1% to 10% kind of a way), even if the funds might be restricted to how much they can recommend in regards to certain kinds of non-traditional assets (including something like bitcoin) whcih might be the lower numbers,

....and even though I recommend individuals (newbies, lowcoiners or no coiners) to consider getting the fuck off of zero with an allocation into bitcoin of anywhere between 1% to 25% to start with, and of course, each person has to figure out the specific number / percentage out for their lil selfies... including taking responsibility for the number that they choose - which could be on the more aggressive side (such as 25%) if they are really bullish about bitcoin or even on the more whimpy side and closer to 1% if they are a more scared lil cat.. while at the same time, individuals (aka normies) also have to figure out their discretionary budget, and if they even have enough income that they are able to invest into anything (whether bitcoin or anything else) without devolving into gambling practices... .

...so institutions do NOT have the ability to be anywhere as close to the level of aggressive as individuals (when it comes to percentages that that they might be able to allocate into bitcoin or to recommend that their clients allocate into bitcoin)..... one of the reasons that individuals are so easy to front load institutions and even rich twats who might only feel that they are able to invest through something like an ETF rather than merely buying bitcoin directly (which is surely better for people to own the direct underlying asset, even though some folks are restricted in the ways that they can use some of their investment funds - namely investment funds that might have access to something like an ETF - but not legally allowed to buy bitcoin directly).

[OgNasty]

$27 trillion is coming...
https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1673436174222852098?t=b0t0g5OdXtvr1lovcEsUiQ&s=19

That is a crazy idea to think about. If this all went according to the best case scenario (as I think we have pretty much seen up until FTX) then I could see this propelling Bitcoin into the millions per BTC in 10-15 years. I think the banks are placing their bets that the Bitcoin market is going to follow gold’s footsteps after ETFs launched.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com