Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

One of the most fascinating things about watching the order book on Houbi, is that almost everytime an order is executed on one side for more than 30 btc, several orders on the other side pop up to "beef up" the opposite side.

So for instance, small walls will form up and down the order book in reference to a buy or sell execution that seems at all threatening.  Then later, those small walls disappear.

Although often times, when say a 30 btc buy or sell executes, there is immediately a slighty larger opposite buy or sell order - say 50 btc - that pops up a $1 or so away.

[av123]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

Dude I've made a killing from his Chinese slumber posts.

[JorgeStolfi]

Dude I've made a killing from his Chinese slumber posts.

Really? 

I did not intend them as trading advice, thye are just an idea that I have been testing and do not know whether it is worth anything.  I m glad (and relieved) that they worked for you.

[av123]

Dude I've made a killing from his Chinese slumber posts.

Really? 

I did not intend them as trading advice, thye are just an idea that I have been testing and do not know whether it is worth anything.  I m glad (and relieved) that they worked for you.

Actually I was being facetious. I don't trust my trading skills enough at this point in time.

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

You may be correct - that engaging with him is a big waste of time.

I have been having a few battles with him regarding the contents of his posts, yet there were a few posts of his that caused me to consider matters a little bit differently (in other words I got some value out of them).  And, also, I had thought that it may be helpful to point out the deceptive aspects of the content of some of his posts, but that may be a big waste of time, too.

My dilemma is that I hate for some obvious misleading to go unchecked - even though it seems about half the posts in this thread are trolls or trollish in nature.

[KeyserSoze]

It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links...

Sounds like he wants to learn your IP, which I think others have been banned for PMing similar.

[windjc]

Hey Jorge,

You might be able to actually answer this question for me. Do Chinese people tend to trade on Friday afternoon and evenings?  And when they do, do they tend to buy or sell going into the weekend?

[JorgeStolfi]

It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links...

Sounds like he wants to learn your IP, which I think others have been banned for PMing similar.

Not at all, it was just a plain PNG delivered from the University server.  The reason to post it as a link was that the bitcointalk image proxiy often truncates PNGs for no obvious reason, and it did so in the preview.  I have re-delivered the Lesson without the link.

(If sending links in private messages is forbidden, why does the software allow it?)

[JayJuanGee]

It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links...

Sounds like he wants to learn your IP, which I think others have been banned for PMing similar.

I just don't like to click on links.... but sometimes the links are in the public forum.. so if there are links in the public threads, then sometimes I will click on those links if they seem like they may be relevant to the topic that is being discussed.   

Also, Jorge ended up sending me the PNG within a second PM.. without the link... so I am NOT sure.

Personally, I actually think that this forum is way too liberal with trolls, and whether various kinds of conduct is worthy of banning, I do NOT know very much about that.... b/c sometimes members get pretty outrageous in their posts.  Surely, I like to swear sometimes, but mostly just to emphasize a point.. not usually directed at anybody... but every once in a while, I will get irritated by someone and say something derogatory..

[KeyserSoze]

It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links...

Sounds like he wants to learn your IP, which I think others have been banned for PMing similar.

Not at all, it was just a plain PNG delivered from the University server.  The reason to post it as a link was that the bitcointalk image proxiy often truncates PNGs for no obvious reason, and it did so in the preview.  I have re-delivered the Lesson without the link.

(If sending links in private messages is forbidden, why does the software allow it?)

There was a rash of people sending beacons a year or so ago, and links to sniff IP addresses. If I recall some were banned. You'd have to ask a mod why the software allows it.

[Post-Cosmic]

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.

Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

Agreed, it's a beauty!
Might reduce bitcoin volatility by itself if stickied in newb section  .

No because the masses of 'newbies' causing volatility, if any, are located in the Middle Kingdom by the Yellow Sea.. 1,000,000,000 population to have bitcoiners from....

[JorgeStolfi]

Hey Jorge,

You might be able to actually answer this question for me. Do Chinese people tend to trade on Friday afternoon and evenings?  And when they do, do they tend to buy or sell going into the weekend?

All I know is what I see on the bitcoinwisdom hourly volume charts.  Huobi's clients generally seem to trade substantially until midnight, then gradually stop until ~3:00 am, and gradually start again from 06:00 on.

I don't see any difference on Friday evenings or even Saturdays, but they seem to start later and trade less on Sunday mornings.

OKCoin has a background volume that seems to go on continuously 24/7.  Could be fake, I don't know.

[keithers]

Anyone notice that after the high of 3449, the chart on Houbi has been more bearish than Stamp and Finex?

Seems to be a bit more confidence about going up on Stamp and Finex, which is ironic given that they won't go up unless Houbi 1 Kanobi does first.

I did actually notice that and was going to bring it up, but got sidetracked

[JorgeStolfi]

Hey Jorge,

You might be able to actually answer this question for me. Do Chinese people tend to trade on Friday afternoon and evenings?  And when they do, do they tend to buy or sell going into the weekend?

PS. As for whether they are bearish or bullish at different hours of the day, that is something I actually wanted to check.  Unfortunately I still don't know of a convenient source for the summary data.  (Bitcoincharts has the data for download, but they dont carry Huobi or other Chinese exchange except BTC-China, which has rather small and weird volume.)

EDIT: China is UTC + 8 hours, so 03:00 am of day N in China is 19:00 of day N-1 UTC.

[Post-Cosmic]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well...  

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mooncake]

Some serious upwards movement at Stamp.

[chessnut]

http://www.coindesk.com/former-us-consumer-finance-watchdog-voices-supports-for-bitcoin/

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well...  

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

What i received was kind of like that...

It seems that you, post comic, are going to have to engage Jorge sufficiently, in order to become a lucky recipient (if you want to call it luck). 

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here.  Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

I will concede that sometimes there may be some good information contained in his posts, but frequently there is a hell-of-a-lot of misinformation or poorly spun information contained therein.

[chessnut]

dont wanna jump the gun, but after a stagnant day, some bidding is kicking off this reading, gutsy buying near 480 is paying off. Hopefully wave V takes us to 580-600 in the coming days.