Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Post-Cosmic]

1m, 3m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h and 12h charts all pointing north. The stars are aligned.
1d chart going to break out within the next hr.

My advice: Get in now!

 Yep, $526 is pretty much bagged at this point. However, beyond that, longs begins stepping into risk territory, with a break beyond last high of 548 difficult to rely on given this is the weekend -and- a holiday period, which is why the best way to get in these trades in this kind of environment is to not jump in reacting to movement, instead wait out for the next 1H/2H candle retracement and enjoy a ~90-95% guarantee of a more advantageous position opening up.

 That way you can have your moon cake & eat it too while smothering your cheeks with it like a hungry toddler.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I'm just not impressed by the volume of this rally. This could still very easily be a repeat of  March, only this time $400 support has been broken, and we don't have the certainty that we had then that the realization of our worst fear (the closure of a major exchange) is behind us.

I said two days ago that ~$475 was retracement territory and if we were going to have another major push upwards, it would be from there. So far the push has been pretty underwhelming. I'm guessing Friday's paychecks have mostly been spent by now and Easter will be a time for profit taking and the celebration of an entirely different kind of resurrection.

What am I missing? We haven't had a crash in over a week and China hasn't declared bitcoin ownership a capital crime yet? What is the basis for this new found optimism? This thread's like a bunch of manic depressives off of their lithium. Since I don't read Chinese and my TA skills are limited, perhaps someone could enlighten me.

[JorgeStolfi]

What is the basis for this new found optimism?

Well, BTC-China just installed a bitcoin ATM in Shangai and unveiled a phone app, both independent of banks:
http://shanghaiist.com/2014/04/18/chinas-first-bitcoin-atm-installed-in-shanghai-mall.php
I saw an article about it in Chinese posted to a Chinese government website, "submitted by the Shangai city municipality".  I can't find it now, but I have the vague recollection that the date&time coincided with the jump from ˜2900 to ~3100 on Huobi at 05:55 UTC (13:55 local time).

I haven't seen any new notices on the Huobi and OKCoin sites about the bank (non)closures. 

[seleme]

3d MACD crossing, we're going up at least 100$

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tyson95]

Here it comes

[lynn_402]

Here it comes

Bitcoin's uptrend ressurection for Easter?

[sidhujag]

Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.

thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.

I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.

The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.

I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.

Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.

The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..

If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.

The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.

[octaft]

Jesus, chessnut. What did you do to make them hate you so much! 

[Richy_T]

But we do not need to discuss theory. The MtGOX heist alone stole 5% of all the money in the bitcoin economy.  There have been dozens, if not hundreds, of other heists; the total may be 10% of all the money.  AFAIK, none of those thieves has been identified, much less caught; and none of those stolen coins were retrieved.

That is 10% of all the money in 5 years, which is 2% per year.

Inflation alone steals 3-9% of our money every year.

Try harder 

Euro inflation is 1% this year, isn't it? But never mind.

Devaluation of bitcoin has stolen ~50% of your money in the last two months.

Your turn. 

I "lost" (I haven't actually lost anything with Bitcoin) far more in absolute terms and not far off in relative terms when the pound fell 20% against the dollar in a matter of days several years ago almost simultaneous with the artificially manipulated housing bubble bursting.

And yes, computer security issues do affect Bitcoin which is why we have paper/offline wallets. These are somewhat inconvenient and not the complete answer but hardware wallets are coming and these will provide a huge amount of improved security (third party hardware cryptography devices have been available for applications which truly need security for a while now. Why would Bitcoin be any different?)

[octaft]

But we do not need to discuss theory. The MtGOX heist alone stole 5% of all the money in the bitcoin economy.  There have been dozens, if not hundreds, of other heists; the total may be 10% of all the money.  AFAIK, none of those thieves has been identified, much less caught; and none of those stolen coins were retrieved.

That is 10% of all the money in 5 years, which is 2% per year.

Inflation alone steals 3-9% of our money every year.

Try harder 

Euro inflation is 1% this year, isn't it? But never mind.

Devaluation of bitcoin has stolen ~50% of your money in the last two months.

Your turn. 

I "lost" (I haven't actually lost anything with Bitcoin) far more in absolute terms and not far off in relative terms when the pound fell 20% against the dollar in a matter of days several years ago almost simultaneous with the artificially manipulated housing bubble bursting.

And yes, computer security issues do affect Bitcoin which is why we have paper/offline wallets. These are somewhat inconvenient and not the complete answer but hardware wallets are coming and these will provide a huge amount of improved security (third party hardware cryptography devices have been available for applications which truly need security for a while now. Why would Bitcoin be any different?)

My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?

[Richy_T]

EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems.  I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve.  Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin.  I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.

What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction. The process should be "X is a problem this is why it is unsolvable" or "X is a problem, a possible way to mitigate it might be Y" but what we appear to be getting is "X is a problem now let's run around in circles yelling like our hair is on fire"

Here are some issues and solutions that have been addressed with an existing service, credit cards:

o Credit card numbers on receipts lead to theft (Yes, they used to do this.) Solution: Receipts now show only four digits of cards
o Front of card has all data needed for a purchase: Solution CCV codes

o CCV codes can be seen: No solution from providers. Some customers memorize then remove CCV codes.
o Cards can be "skimmed" by untrustworthy waiters. No solution from providers. Recommendation is for customer to not relinquish control of their card. (Somewhat hard to actually do)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Gox is far is a total loss for its customers. Inflation isn't that harsh :-P

Gox didn't touch me at all (other than the affect it had on price which will balance out long term). Inflation will get you no matter how carefully you lock your dollars away.

[Richy_T]

Double spending is not at all a problem with fiat. Neither cash nor credit. Counterfeinting and (succesful) attacks on cards, POS'es, ATMs yes, but not double spending. You cannot clone Benjamin. At least not a fictive but definitely produceable quantum Benjamin that cannot be cloned.

Creating fake bills and using them is doble spending. So yes, cash has that problem.

It is not clear to me that any fiat is NOT double spending.  Certainly counterfeiting can be construed thus, but what else is fractional reserve lending?

Good point.

[ErisDiscordia]

"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.

Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.

[Richy_T]

My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?

I am not familiar with it.

The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.

[Richy_T]

"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.

Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.

I think TA potentially has some value. We can all see the "ringing" from major price shifts. There's clearly some money to be lapped up there. I think survivor bias also plays into things a lot though and some people are likely deluding themselves that their TA is giving them more of an edge than it actually is and are placing themselves in somewhat of a risky position.

As you are clearly aware, poker is more than just luck. But you'd be daft to risk your life savings after winning your first few hands.