Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

Tuesday is going to tell us a lot. That would be the time for new fiat to have arrived. So if there is actually new fiat that is going to leads into a bull market, and not just day traders on margin, we will get a chance to see it in action.

If we stall out again tomorrow or go down, then I'll be putting buy orders in around 420-440.

[billyjoeallen]

If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.

You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.

[Raystonn]

If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.

You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.

Are you calling Bitcoin paper?  You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?

[chessnut]

Market will go up before the china BS is over. Might have begun, might begin soon. If you are waiting for it to be over, you will miss the train. the market is forward looking.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 22

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3091 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD





Plot legend

Today's data point was so-so, (S = 0.0051 W = 0.598) but almost exactly aligned with the last two points.  Therefore it seems best to assume a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3144.19 and B = -17.62.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.26 CNY/USD. It was 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-04-20, 23:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Monday 2014-04-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Another lucky break:

Huobi's predicted price: 3097 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3110 CNY
Error: 13 CNY (~2 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 496 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 496 USD
Error: 0 USD
 
NOTE: "There is a 70% probability of tomorrow." (actual weatherman quote. 1988)

[JayJuanGee]

If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.

You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.

Are you calling Bitcoin paper?  You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?

Are you serious? 

This is a basic concept and a basic expression to cash out in order to realize the payoff of the investment.  The expression of paper profit or paper loss for that matter, is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

[Post-Cosmic]

I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.

I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.

 BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.

 Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.

Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.

 Selling @ relative highs & buying back in at absolute lows (200-300's) every few months or so doesn't even register as 'trading' to be honest. The majority of this thread's non-permahodlers are doing just that as we speak.

 And you don't need to have insider info on what the whales will do specifically, to know that buying non-leveraged @ 20%+ (aka ~$100) below current price has 98%+ chance of not ever causing you to have reason to panic, realize a loss or have to weather that specific trade being in the 'red'/underwater for any longer than several weeks in the worst scenario.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[prof7bit]

is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Bitcoin *IS* cash.

[Raystonn]

If you bought Bitcoin a year ago would you have made a profit or not? How about a year before that? I guess the thing to do is buy as much as you can afford right now and come back next year to tell the story of your great success.

You would have made only a paper profit. You have to SELL to have a real profit.

Are you calling Bitcoin paper?  You want him to sell his BTC for paper U.S. dollars to avoid his profit being paper?

Are you serious? 

This is a basic concept and a basic expression to cash out in order to realize the payoff of the investment.  The expression of paper profit or paper loss for that matter, is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

This concept loses its meaning in forex.  The IRS may disagree, but BTC looks more like a currency than a commodity.  It is directly tradable for goods and services.  It need not ever be exchanged for a fiat currency.

Long term holders can choose to use BTC as their base currency.  If they feel another currency looks bullish against BTC, they can buy that and then sell back to BTC when they want to lock in profits.

[Davyd05]

3d macd cross no panic tho thats in an hr or 2

[JayJuanGee]

I'm wondering why the $15-$18 price differential between Stamp and BTC-e. I am guessing the Russians have a better understanding of the China situation than The West has.

I'm sick of the bear market too, but I doubt it's over just because I want it to be.

 BTCe is a ghetto 'sideline/secondary option' exchange & the prices reflect it (their website's GUI looks pretty uninviting as well =/) - guess people dump harder on there to be on the safe side from near-anonymous owners.

 Folks here'd do well to be aware that these manipulators have enough resources & income to keep this rodeo going on for months if not years.. One doesn't handle this intelligently by 'waiting it out' & relying on 'hope' ; Keeping at least a small portion of your stash into a trading acct to buy around high 300's & 200's, and sell around 500's & 600's, is how one keeps making some very respectable, safe profit month after month, increasing total crypto net worth over time while using this activity churn as a psychological bulwark to responsibly handling the loooong potential wait before next ATH w/o depression or panic.

Suggesting people should trade during this China thing is the worst advise you can give. Out of 10 people who take your advise at least 8 will lose their money.

 Selling @ relative highs & buying back in at absolute lows (200-300's) every few months or so doesn't even register as 'trading' to be honest. The majority of this thread's non-permahodlers are doing just that as we speak.

I think that there is a variety of types of participants in this thread... however, many of the ones who label themselves as NON-daytraders have been disinclined to sell below $600 or so ...

I think the idea is to buy when the price is going down and to sell when the prices is going up.. however, NONE of us can really predict when the price is going down or up.. so there is a tendency to error on the side of HODL.. and also to exercise the buying and the selling at the extremes.. to the extent that can be measured.... so if we are of the belief that there is a long term trendline that is going up, then attempt to buy below the trendline and to sell above the trendline.  Sure there are other variations of that kind of a practice, yet I believe that mistakes can be made when miscalculating the trendline b/c there are quite a few varying opinions about where that trendline is, exactly.. or the short-term allure to make a few bucks, if we feel pretty confident that either news or FUD is going to cause a predictable and measureable price movement.

[JorgeStolfi]

Missing a pic of a bear?



(The Milnesium tardigradum is a bear, but a rather small one)

[ Edited from a Wikimedia Commons image ]

[JorgeStolfi]

I think the idea is to buy when the price is going down and to sell when the price is going up..

Actually, the idea is to buy when the price is about to go up and to sell when it is about to go down.   

(But, admittedly, there are practical difficulties in the implementation of that theoretical principle.   )

[JayJuanGee]

is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Bitcoin *IS* cash.

You seem to be getting caught up in some kind of definition issues and  a possibly getting caught up in a world that does NOT exist yet for a large majority of people. Most people, even in the bitcoin world, are NOT exclusively living on bitcoin, yet.

Also, as you likely realize, an investor realizes profits from an investment by converting to fiat or converting to some other assets such as luxury boats or whatever.. that is cashing out....  Hopefully, the cashing out comes when BTC prices go up...... 

Let's say, for example that I want to stay in fiat, but I invest in bitcoin to potentially increase my fiat.  accordingly, I acquire 100 bitcoins at $500 each, and then in two days the price of those BTC goes up to $1,000 each.  I may come to the conclusion that the price is going down again, so I decide to cash out all or.. Possibly, I will buy back some more bitcoins later or maybe i will just cash out half of them in order to get my fiat amount investment back. 

Cashing out may NOT be a wise idea, depending on the circumstances, but, people will come to different conclusions about how much, how often or when to cash out or even whether to ever cash out.

[JayJuanGee]

I think the idea is to buy when the price is going down and to sell when the price is going up..

Actually, the idea is to buy when the price is about to go up and to sell when it is about to go down.   

(But, admittedly, there are practical difficulties in the implementation of that theoretical principle.   )

YES... the practicality of real world prediction gets in the way.   

In this regard, NO one really wants to sell at $500, for example, and then in the next few days the price goes up 50% (to $750) or some other large amount.  Also, NO one really wants to buy at $500 and then the price goes down to $250 in the next few days.. Therefore, a lot of people end up staggering their buys and their sells in order to approximate some kind of systematic skill in their best guesses... some guess better than others and some have more money than others to throw at the situation.

[wachtwoord]

is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Bitcoin *IS* cash.

So much of this. Bitcoin is better cash than fiat even.

[JorgeStolfi]

is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Bitcoin *IS* cash.

So much of this. Bitcoin is better cash than fiat even.

Come on folks, each one has his Ultimate Object of Desire, and "realizes the gains" when he gets hold of that.

If your goal is dollars, you have "realized" when you converted to dollars.  If your goal is gold, you "realized" whe you exchanged the dollars for gold.  If your goal is marriage, you "realized" when you exchanged the gold for marriage. 

[bitcoinsrus]

is NOT realized until the asset is cashed out.

Bitcoin *IS* cash.

So much of this. Bitcoin is better cash than fiat even.

Come on folks, each one has his Ultimate Object of Desire, and "realizes the gains" when he gets hold of that.

If your goal is dollars, you have "realized" when you converted to dollars.  If your goal is gold, you "realized" whe you exchanged the dollars for gold.  If your goal is marriage, you "realized" when you exchanged the gold for marriage. 

The ad said 4 oz gold for my new Hungarian wife

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation