My superstitious guess on Bitcoin price...
Figure 1
Figure 2
Before I start, if you haven't noticed, I know nothing about trading. I just thought it was fair to share my own superstitious guesses. I use terms like "wave" and "fractal" but I subscribe to no school of thought when it comes to trading, so take these terms at face value.
And I hope I'm wrong cuz I am mostly in BTC! DOH!
We all know "past performance is no guarantee of future results" however
that's exactly what my erroneous guesses are based on. Why? Because of my frail human psyche. I am superstitious even though I know I shouldn't be. I'd like to think I am special and know something about the market that you don't. I like to look to the past to predict the future even when I know it is impossible. My momma just didn't love me enough.
Figure 1 is a 6-month view starting at the bubble which ran from ~$150 to ~@1100. Green arrows show dramatic rises; red shows severe dips.
Period A is the overarching rise and fall of that first monumental "pseudo-fractal". Period B shows the smaller rise/fall, and so on. I refer to a Period as "pseudo fractal" because I like to think there is some partially fractal essence to the way price reacts. This is a part of my superstition.
Period B is a more stretched out and flattened fractal of A. Period C is a shorter and flatter fractal of B. Which makes me wonder if Period D, which is 80% fantasy created by me and my friend Photoshop, will be another, flatter fractal of C.
The arrow coming off of D points to exactly where I began my fantasy price line. The addition is simply a trimmed copy of Period C pasted back in and flattened a bit more. I wasn't sure whether I should lengthen it or shorten it but I would assume it would be one or the other; either shorter because the market is reacting to each Period faster, or maybe longer because the market is so unsure whether it should buy or sell.
Anyway, from this guess concerning Period D, I would further reckon we'll see a slow downtrend until we get the sharper sell off ~May-June. I would think the extremes might be in the neighborhood of $300. I just hope it doesn't hit $266 cuz that could freak some old timers out enough to sell even further.
I would say it is then we would begin to see an extended flat period (my hand drawn Period E) because many speculators will be worn out. Folks who wanted to turn a quick buck will be gone. Folks who were new to Bitcoin and bought at $600-$1200 will be gone, unfortunately. Some businesses will have given up.
I would guess it'll be painfully slow during this time (as if it hasn't been low volume enough recently). Lots of doom and gloom, etc. People will no longer be screaming about losing money. Instead the laments will be "is it dead?" "How could it recover, there's no one using it."
I think there will be a "Period E" because of
Figure 2. This shot is a 2-year period showing the long periods in between the $32 bubble to the $266 bubble to the $1100 bubble. The $32 bubble is off screen to the left a bit.
F2A (Figure 2, Period A) was about 15-16 months or so (you can't see all of it on the chart). F2B was about 6 months long.
How long will the flatline doldrums of F1E be (if it even occurs)? One could argue it will be longer or shorter. It could be shorter because if we're talking fractals, each bubble has a shorter depression after it, therefore this next one could be 3 months or maybe 2. We could see ~$350-$450 until ~September.
...or one could argue it will be
longer. The $32 crash suffered a long malaise period afterward because there just weren't very many people involved. Infrastructure was nearly non-existent with maybe 1 half decent exchange to even be able to buy them. The $266 crash got a LOT of exposure so we had more buy-in. The gloom after $266 was quickly washed away with all the incoming cash.
But this one, this $1100 crash, with Gox going under, has cost a lot of people a lot of money and faith. There are only so many adventurous types in the world. I wonder how many we brought in and lost in this last crash. The next influx will need to capture non-adventurous types. And that ain't easy.
I hope there is a short F1E Period which sets the stage for next rise which, if it comes, wouldn't be before July.
Programmable money is here to stay. I hope it's Bitcoin. We're constantly seeing good news, new apps, more ATMs and other infrastructure. I am truly stoked about it. Can Bitcoin create another wave that does not subside? Here's hoping my bearish guess is way off base and we see the moon next week!
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