Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 23Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3112 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
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Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0016 W = 0.949) and only 29 CNY above the previous trend line. Therefore it seems appropriate to use again a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last four points. Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3128.64 and B = -4.27.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.30 CNY/USD. It was 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last four Slumber Times.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Monday 2014-04-21, 23:29 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)
Not bad, but admittedly it was not a hard guess:
Huobi's predicted price: 3091 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3120 CNY
Error: 29 CNY (~5 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 492 USD
Error: 2 USD NOTE: "We encourage you NOT to read the posts of anyone with whom you know you will disagree."
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