Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

You answered yourself with your last sentence.  If we can make a new 3-day low once, we can make it again pretty easily.  The next major line of support is at 472.50.  If we breach that we're in bear territory, with the next major supports at 454, 400, and 355.50.  If we bounce off 472.50 and break above 515, that would be a pretty good bull sign.

Between 472.50 and 515 is no-man's land.  We float with no conviction in either direction.

[JayJuanGee]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

The last 12 hours or so have seen some increases in volume..

Whether we have rumblings of significant price movements, only time will tell....

Even though I do NOT do lines, it seems that breaking above $560-ish or breaking below $450-ish would be significant regarding which way we are heading next.. Otherwise if the price bounces back and forth between $450 and $560, I am NOT going to get too excited...

[chessnut]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

You answered yourself with your last sentence.  If we can make a new 3-day low once, we can make it again pretty easily.  The next major line of support is at 472.50.  If we breach that we're in bear territory, with the next major supports at 454, 400, and 355.50.  If we bounce off 472.50 and break above 515, that would be a pretty good bull sign.

Between 472.50 and 515 is no-man's land.  We float with no conviction in either direction.

we have met the conditions of a wedge. low volume, contracting volatility, contracting range. something has to happen soon, most likely it will be in the same direction as where it came from. as long as the bulls remain as weak as they are now, and have been for the last days, I will assume it's going up.




edit - ask walls gone.

[windjc]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

You answered yourself with your last sentence.  If we can make a new 3-day low once, we can make it again pretty easily.  The next major line of support is at 472.50.  If we breach that we're in bear territory, with the next major supports at 454, 400, and 355.50.  If we bounce off 472.50 and break above 515, that would be a pretty good bull sign.

Between 472.50 and 515 is no-man's land.  We float with no conviction in either direction.

we have met the conditions of a wedge. low volume, contracting volatility, contracting range. something has to happen soon, most likely it will be in the same direction as where it came from. as long as the bulls remain as weak as they are now, and have been for the last days, I will assume it's going up.




edit - ask walls gone.

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us.  You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA.  Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

You answered yourself with your last sentence.  If we can make a new 3-day low once, we can make it again pretty easily.  The next major line of support is at 472.50.  If we breach that we're in bear territory, with the next major supports at 454, 400, and 355.50.  If we bounce off 472.50 and break above 515, that would be a pretty good bull sign.

Between 472.50 and 515 is no-man's land.  We float with no conviction in either direction.

"They float, they all float."

http://youtu.be/ZKc6bHkczgU?t=26m

[windjc]

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us.  You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA.  Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

hey im not the one who sold at 475... lol
your reasons are not strong. you cant explain why the price is going up. same old excuse - no fiat. well you are obviously wrong.
you are only so offended because you dont have the reason to convince yourself that we are in a bear market. just keep dreaming.
capitulation doesnt always happen at the bottom, youv'e had your volume, and we have seen a divergance wave.

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

[KeyserSoze]

Jorge: blockchain voting
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23og0b/danish_political_party_liberal_alliance_will_be/

[Wary]

Any candlestick TA experts? This is bitstamp Y10 chart. What are your predictions?

Haha   So bullish!

You should use logarithmic scale.

That's why the train pictures don't work: they should be in log scale!

[windjc]

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

I think you need to work on your sarcasam skills.

desperate? me? I bought at 484, remember? Im pretty comfy. Im on a roll.

so you dont like your bad trades being poked at? hmm interesting. I haven't made any promises, so I really wouldn't feel the same. if you want to come poke fun at me in a couple of days ill be here, but at this rate, Im not going to forget this either.

Ive made a comprehensive case but you wouldn't remember the details. you seem to have made up your mind.

lol. whatever. I have about 100x times more at stake on exchanges than you do. Of course I care. I can't afford to have some unreasonable market bias.

I dont want to poke fun at you. That's the point. I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

[keithers]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

The last 12 hours or so have seen some increases in volume..

Whether we have rumblings of significant price movements, only time will tell....

Even though I do NOT do lines, it seems that breaking above $560-ish or breaking below $450-ish would be significant regarding which way we are heading next.. Otherwise if the price bounces back and forth between $450 and $560, I am NOT going to get too excited...

While this is true, if we can get to and maintain at prices of $550 or $550+, it is definitely a huge step in the right direction.  With this last decline (where we touched down in the mid $300s), so many media outlets where crying out how this was bitcoin's demise.  A recovery to $550+ (sustainable), will make them put their feet in their mouths.  

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge: blockchain voting
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23og0b/danish_political_party_liberal_alliance_will_be/

Thanks, will check.

[JayJuanGee]

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us.  You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA.  Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

hey im not the one who sold at 475... lol
your reasons are not strong. you cant explain why the price is going up. same old excuse - no fiat. well you are obviously wrong.
you are only so offended because you dont have the reason to convince yourself that we are in a bear market. just keep dreaming.
capitulation doesnt always happen at the bottom, youv'e had your volume, and we have seen a divergance wave.

I think that Chessnut has given as good of an explanation as can be expected under the circumstances.  The Bears have been attempting to strategically push the price down on several occasions over the last week or so.. and they just have NOT been successful... thus the price is likely to continue from the direction in which it came... he he he...

I was beginning to become a little bearish, too after seeing the lack of upward movement, but I just do NOT see a whole heck of a lot of ability for the bears to continue to push the price down (absent additional FUD).  The bears have run out of steam, and they are getting tired of selling to themselves b/c NO one else seems to be selling.

[JayJuanGee]

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us.  You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA.  Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

hey im not the one who sold at 475... lol
your reasons are not strong. you cant explain why the price is going up. same old excuse - no fiat. well you are obviously wrong.
you are only so offended because you dont have the reason to convince yourself that we are in a bear market. just keep dreaming.
capitulation doesnt always happen at the bottom, youv'e had your volume, and we have seen a divergance wave.

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

Usually, I had been seeing Chestnut lose his cool b/c guys were pounding on him and beating him up, and in this instance, it  seems that Chestnut is coming out ahead...   GO Chestnut!!!   I am a fan of the underdog. hehehe 

[chessnut]

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us.  You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA.  Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

Usually, I had been seeing Chestnut lose his cool b/c guys were pounding on him and beating him up, and in this instance, it  seems that Chestnut is coming out ahead...   GO Chestnut!!!   I am a fan of the underdog. hehehe 

well I thought that was pretty inflammatory what he said up there. 'cheerleading' 'REAL case'. Ofcoarse I have fundamental reasons, I have given them, but windjc forgets those. I hope he was just joking, but it's not funny.

[aminorex]

I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

The whole story is right here.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Come on, Chessnut, make a REAL case for us.  You have been chattering on cheerleading the market with bullish expectations. But posting these same charts over and over again and saying things like we will go up because triangles normally continue direction is ridiculously weak TA.  Make a real case for us. Tell us where the money came from to take us up. Tell us where that money is now. Tell us why we can capitulate on historically low volume. Tell us why this is really different than March. Make a real case. Answer all our bearish doubts with some real substance. We wanna believe that we can go into another bull market. Tell us why we really really should believe this without posting that one chart over and over. Give us some real meat, Chessnut!

Usually, I had been seeing Chestnut lose his cool b/c guys were pounding on him and beating him up, and in this instance, it  seems that Chestnut is coming out ahead...   GO Chestnut!!!   I am a fan of the underdog. hehehe 

well I thought that was pretty inflammatory what he said up there. 'cheerleading' 'REAL case'. Ofcoarse I have fundamental reasons, I have given them, but windjc forgets those. I hope he was just joking, but it's not funny.

I'm exaggerating a little bit, too..  yet I don't think that you need to explain further... we come to different conclusions and NO one really knows.  Certainly, he can provide his own analysis, and in the end, some bets may NOT pay off.. but that may NOT be the result of bad prediction, just inability to predict based upon the realities of actual manipulation that is taking place.. You can only go so far to predict the extent of the manipulation.

For all we know, Uncle Sam may have the 650K missing GOX coins and using those coins to undermine bitcoin...   Uncle sam has a better chance of undermining bitcoin, if they can widdle away public confidence while bitcoin is still in its infancy stages.  Additionally, some big banks may be willing to engage in some of this purposeful loss of money to manipulate the market downward... we do NOT really know for sure whether some manipulator(s), to the extent they exist may be operating at a loss in order to affect the price.

Sorry to be so conspiratorial.. but I think that there is only so much that you can do with TA lines.