Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[keithers]

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

I think you need to work on your sarcasam skills.

desperate? me? I bought at 484, remember? Im pretty comfy. Im on a roll.

so you dont like your bad trades being poked at? hmm interesting. I haven't made any promises, so I really wouldn't feel the same. if you want to come poke fun at me in a couple of days ill be here, but at this rate, Im not going to forget this either.

Ive made a comprehensive case but you wouldn't remember the details. you seem to have made up your mind.

lol. whatever. I have about 100x times more at stake on exchanges than you do. Of course I care. I can't afford to have some unreasonable market bias.

I dont want to poke fun at you. That's the point. I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

No need to argue, I think we can all agree that we want btc to continuously rise to significantly higher levels than we are at right now. I for one don't believe that the current market price is representative of the mass adoption that we have seen over the past few months. Yes we have had a fair share of bad news out of China, and a few other countries, but the amount of money being poured into the ecosystem developing new apps and btc businesses is not yet reflected in our prices. Once more of these startups are up and running, it is simple logic that we will see a ton more daily transactions, and therefore see higher prices.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

The whole story is right here.

Is there an explanation of that plot somewhere? (How can the number decrease? Because empty addresses are excluded?)
Thanks...

[Pruden]

I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

The whole story is right here.

Is there an explanation of that plot somewhere? (How can the number decrease? Because empty addresses are excluded?)
Thanks...

That's number of addresses involved in a transaction per day. A little more than two addresses per transaction.

[JorgeStolfi]

That's number of addresses involved in a transaction per day. A little more than two addresses per transaction.

Thanks!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[magicmexican]

12h/1d macD look like the huge dump is just around the corner

[Ashitank]

12h/1d macD look like the huge dump is just around the corner

roger that dump incoming , but I think we are slowly on way up to $800 or who knows new ATH by July/August/September time I guess.

[freebit13]

12h/1d macD look like the huge dump is just around the corner

But at least the 3d MACD has the first little sign of green since last year... finally! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

The whole story is right here.

Is there an explanation of that plot somewhere? (How can the number decrease? Because empty addresses are excluded?)
Thanks...

That's number of addresses involved in a transaction per day. A little more than two addresses per transaction.

So the number reflects transactions on the blockchain, but NOT transactions on various exchanges that are occurring off of the block chain?

 Some day, it would be nice to have some additional transparency to include those other transactions, as well, maybe in separate chart(s)...

[windjc]

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

I think you need to work on your sarcasam skills.

desperate? me? I bought at 484, remember? Im pretty comfy. Im on a roll.

so you dont like your bad trades being poked at? hmm interesting. I haven't made any promises, so I really wouldn't feel the same. if you want to come poke fun at me in a couple of days ill be here, but at this rate, Im not going to forget this either.

Ive made a comprehensive case but you wouldn't remember the details. you seem to have made up your mind.

lol. whatever. I have about 100x times more at stake on exchanges than you do. Of course I care. I can't afford to have some unreasonable market bias.

I dont want to poke fun at you. That's the point. I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

No need to argue, I think we can all agree that we want btc to continuously rise to significantly higher levels than we are at right now. I for one don't believe that the current market price is representative of the mass adoption that we have seen over the past few months. Yes we have had a fair share of bad news out of China, and a few other countries, but the amount of money being poured into the ecosystem developing new apps and btc businesses is not yet reflected in our prices. Once more of these startups are up and running, it is simple logic that we will see a ton more daily transactions, and therefore see higher prices.

I tend to agree with you. I am very bullish on bitcoin long term. Short term however, I am still not convinced. When we ran up to 710, the fall from there started slowly and painstakingly. It took days for the enthusiasm to slowly ebb out of the market. We had tiny red candle after tiny red candle for practically an entire month before the downward slop gained momentum.

My fear is that the same will happen this time but even slower. That we make go down for the next 3 weeks and only be in the lower 400s.    

The market treats news the way it wants to hear it. So if the market goes down, there will be bad news to aid it. Have no idea what that bad news will be, but it will be sometime perceived as bad.

Perhaps the market is not going to retest 340. But it certainly doesn't look like its going up.  Here we are, the day all the fresh fiat was suppose to carry us higher and we are drip drip dripping downward.

We may be in a slow grind to nowhere for a while.

[lemonte]

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

I think you need to work on your sarcasam skills.

desperate? me? I bought at 484, remember? Im pretty comfy. Im on a roll.

so you dont like your bad trades being poked at? hmm interesting. I haven't made any promises, so I really wouldn't feel the same. if you want to come poke fun at me in a couple of days ill be here, but at this rate, Im not going to forget this either.

Ive made a comprehensive case but you wouldn't remember the details. you seem to have made up your mind.

lol. whatever. I have about 100x times more at stake on exchanges than you do. Of course I care. I can't afford to have some unreasonable market bias.

I dont want to poke fun at you. That's the point. I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

No need to argue, I think we can all agree that we want btc to continuously rise to significantly higher levels than we are at right now. I for one don't believe that the current market price is representative of the mass adoption that we have seen over the past few months. Yes we have had a fair share of bad news out of China, and a few other countries, but the amount of money being poured into the ecosystem developing new apps and btc businesses is not yet reflected in our prices. Once more of these startups are up and running, it is simple logic that we will see a ton more daily transactions, and therefore see higher prices.

Perhaps the market is not going to retest 340. But it certainly doesn't look like its going up.  Here we are, the day all the fresh fiat was suppose to carry us higher and we are drip drip dripping downward.

We may be in a slow grind to nowhere for a while.

I agree with your points but don't think new Fiat would have hit yesterday with the bank holidays, I did transfers to Kraken on Saturday and they haven't cleared yet and they are normally really quick.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Just take this as an opportunity to turn off the computer, get out the house and do something productive. Set an alarm if you need but theres nothing to see here 

[Cassius]

I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

The whole story is right here.

Can you explain your thinking?
I think you can read the number of addresses on the blockchain different ways, but I'd like to know I understand what you mean before I question it!

[rpietila]

Just take this as an opportunity to turn off the computer, get out the house and do something productive. Set an alarm if you need but theres nothing to see here  

Perhaps there is in 30 days!(TM)

Wanted to take this opportunity to publish the exchange rate prediction contest, which is now getting its final rule clarifications, will run for 8 rounds during the remainder of 2014, and has the top prize of $2,000 (or more, depending on BTC)!

[JayJuanGee]

Look, man. My post wasn't sarcastic. I was ACTUALLY asking you to make a comprehensive case. The fact that you respond by saying that I am "offended" and "dreaming" and "wrong" and offered no further bull evidence makes you look the like the one who is defensive and scared. Yeah, I made a bad trade at 475 that I admitted to. Does that make the bull case stronger? Of course not. That was on me, not the market. I didn't follow my own rules in that one particular case.

But you are the one that is coming across as desperate. I don't give a flying f*** if we go up or down from here personally. I was simply asking you to make a comprehensive case. But you seem only interested in congratulating yourself on catching this wave up. Whatever.

I think you need to work on your sarcasam skills.

desperate? me? I bought at 484, remember? Im pretty comfy. Im on a roll.

so you dont like your bad trades being poked at? hmm interesting. I haven't made any promises, so I really wouldn't feel the same. if you want to come poke fun at me in a couple of days ill be here, but at this rate, Im not going to forget this either.

Ive made a comprehensive case but you wouldn't remember the details. you seem to have made up your mind.

lol. whatever. I have about 100x times more at stake on exchanges than you do. Of course I care. I can't afford to have some unreasonable market bias.

I dont want to poke fun at you. That's the point. I was just hoping you could offer more comprehensive analysis. I won't ask again.

No need to argue, I think we can all agree that we want btc to continuously rise to significantly higher levels than we are at right now. I for one don't believe that the current market price is representative of the mass adoption that we have seen over the past few months. Yes we have had a fair share of bad news out of China, and a few other countries, but the amount of money being poured into the ecosystem developing new apps and btc businesses is not yet reflected in our prices. Once more of these startups are up and running, it is simple logic that we will see a ton more daily transactions, and therefore see higher prices.

Perhaps the market is not going to retest 340. But it certainly doesn't look like its going up.  Here we are, the day all the fresh fiat was suppose to carry us higher and we are drip drip dripping downward.

We may be in a slow grind to nowhere for a while.

I agree with your points but don't think new Fiat would have hit yesterday with the bank holidays, I did transfers to Kraken on Saturday and they haven't cleared yet and they are normally really quick.

What kind of bothers me is that some of these market dynamics are being discussed as if they are NON-manipulative and some objective measures of lack of BTC sentiments.. which really does NOT seem to be the case....

I think that there is a considerable amount of lack of confidence for investors to send fiat to exchanges.. and accordingly, much easier to send BTC to exchanges... accordingly, we get a greater amount of downward price manipulations.

Then we have some untrustworthy elements with some of the exchanges and their lack of transparency (regarding both volume and maybe even regarding whether they are engaging in any kinds of fractional reserve like practices).  I think that it remains quite a way into the future before there may be ways to truly be able to establish prices in decentralized manners that would reflect how people really felt about investing in BTC.  So in that regard, BTC prices seem to be a little depressed, and there may be continued depression of prices for months - however, at some point, the upward momentum will have to break upwards and less ability to keep the price down.

Whether I am being pie in the sky with my thinking, that is how I am currently considering the downtrend in the price matter.

[Post-Cosmic]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??

 Seriously, merchants don't need to keep 'reserves' of 'BTC change' in their 'digital money registers' like stores do w/ fiat. They aren't interested in speculating in BTC future price rises either. They're in fact wary of it - they just want the extra potential sales & rep from bitcoiners. That's why they use services like BitPay. Payment re-processors such as BPay also are not interested in hoarding or buying crypto. They just facilitate things by accepting a cryptopayment from end users, dumping it at market (or pretty fast in any case), giving the merchant their proceeds in fiat & keeping their cut in fiat.

 Those customers, the end-users of all these crypto-friendly merchants & services. THEY are the ones implyingly expected to cause higher prices, by buying moar BTC now that they can shop at a greater variety of places w/ it. But who are the vast majority of cryptocustomers..?? ..BITCOINERS. Enthusiasts. Folks who -already- had their stash & don't mind spending out a little of it here & there. Whatever extra BTC they may buy to shop with will be compensated by what they spend - given that the merchants & payment processors will be dumping the BTC thusly received as payment.

 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?