Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

bears be weak... just need a light breeze to take us up to 520

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rpietila]

Bitcoin can actually gather momentum quite quickly if it is easy and reliable to buy it: During my research into userbases in various countries, the best confirmed results are 0.5% of adult population in 18 months.

Worldwide, that would be 5,000,000,000 * 0.005 = 25 million users, which is 1+ million users per month.

The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.

[rpietila]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.

Your question is discussed for example here.

[Cassius]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.

Your question is discussed for example here.

Ok, though it's worth noting that a 'transaction' for bitcoin generally means something different than for PayPal/Mastercard etc - especially at this point.
For current figures, most bitcoin transactions aren't purchases, they're people moving coins to and from exchanges, between their own addresses, etc. Whereas I imagine almost every PayPal transaction is someone buying a Thing of some sort.
No doubt that will change, but the current figures aren't representative of use or adoption.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Uhm ... why so low ?  ...
I wa trying to sell some btc but I need to wait a little bit longer.

[blatchcorn]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??

 Seriously, merchants don't need to keep 'reserves' of 'BTC change' in their 'digital money registers' like stores do w/ fiat. They aren't interested in speculating in BTC future price rises either. They're in fact wary of it - they just want the extra potential sales & rep from bitcoiners. That's why they use services like BitPay. Payment re-processors such as BPay also are not interested in hoarding or buying crypto. They just facilitate things by accepting a cryptopayment from end users, dumping it at market (or pretty fast in any case), giving the merchant their proceeds in fiat & keeping their cut in fiat.

 Those customers, the end-users of all these crypto-friendly merchants & services. THEY are the ones implyingly expected to cause higher prices, by buying moar BTC now that they can shop at a greater variety of places w/ it. But who are the vast majority of cryptocustomers..?? ..BITCOINERS. Enthusiasts. Folks who -already- had their stash & don't mind spending out a little of it here & there. Whatever extra BTC they may buy to shop with will be compensated by what they spend - given that the merchants & payment processors will be dumping the BTC thusly received as payment.

 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

More places to spend Bitcoin = More useful = Higher demand = Higher price

[aminorex]

Ok, though it's worth noting that a 'transaction' for bitcoin generally means something different than for PayPal/Mastercard etc - especially at this point.
For current figures, most bitcoin transactions aren't purchases, they're people moving coins to and from exchanges, between their own addresses, etc. Whereas I imagine almost every PayPal transaction is someone buying a Thing of some sort.
No doubt that will change, but the current figures aren't representative of use or adoption.

Fisher's quantity law does not care what use is made of a transaction.  It only cares about the valuation of the transaction.  An internal transaction will never contribute to the network value of a currency, but every external transaction will.  The quantity valuation of a currency is independent of utility.  That's why it is so useful.

Every time bitcoin is used, that is use.  Everyone who begins to use bitcoin is an adopter.  Any other definitions are obfuscatory.

Attempting to introduce utility functions into the pricing model is a daunting task.  As long as we can accomplish useful analysis using mechanisms which are independent of utility, which is a subjective and endlessly debatable quality, we should prefer the route of clarity.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

I was drawing a short term chart with a triangle with logarithmic lines. Then I extended it out and discovered I had inadvertently drawn a long term chart as well.



Bonus feature: An observation of 1W EMAs. New candle drawn tomorrow.

[rpietila]

Breakout is imminent. Good.

(If it goes up, it's about time. If it goes down, it still does not stop bitcoin adoption & infrastructure growth, just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers and newcomers.)

[boumalo]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.

Your question is discussed for example here.

Ok, though it's worth noting that a 'transaction' for bitcoin generally means something different than for PayPal/Mastercard etc - especially at this point.
For current figures, most bitcoin transactions aren't purchases, they're people moving coins to and from exchanges, between their own addresses, etc. Whereas I imagine almost every PayPal transaction is someone buying a Thing of some sort.
No doubt that will change, but the current figures aren't representative of use or adoption.

They still are to some extent; if the transactions represent real people who need to do the transactions; a growing number of transactions means growing adoption

[dreamspark]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??

 Seriously, merchants don't need to keep 'reserves' of 'BTC change' in their 'digital money registers' like stores do w/ fiat. They aren't interested in speculating in BTC future price rises either. They're in fact wary of it - they just want the extra potential sales & rep from bitcoiners. That's why they use services like BitPay. Payment re-processors such as BPay also are not interested in hoarding or buying crypto. They just facilitate things by accepting a cryptopayment from end users, dumping it at market (or pretty fast in any case), giving the merchant their proceeds in fiat & keeping their cut in fiat.

 Those customers, the end-users of all these crypto-friendly merchants & services. THEY are the ones implyingly expected to cause higher prices, by buying moar BTC now that they can shop at a greater variety of places w/ it. But who are the vast majority of cryptocustomers..?? ..BITCOINERS. Enthusiasts. Folks who -already- had their stash & don't mind spending out a little of it here & there. Whatever extra BTC they may buy to shop with will be compensated by what they spend - given that the merchants & payment processors will be dumping the BTC thusly received as payment.

 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

More places to spend Bitcoin = More useful = Higher demand = Higher price

Only if they hold BTC, if they convert straight to fiat as most do then it actaully creates downward pressure on the market.

[minerpumpkin]

Breakout is imminent. Good.

(If it goes up, it's about time. If it goes down, it still does not stop bitcoin adoption & infrastructure growth, just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers and newcomers.)

Good! Care to drop some change in order to kickstart the train? 

[kehtolo]

Only if they hold BTC, if they convert straight to fiat as most do then it actaully creates downward pressure on the market.

This is a good point, that often gets overlooked (I know some on here have previously, raised this)

So, with increased BTC retail sales comes increased numbers of BTC being immediately sold for fiat at market, creating downward pressure?

(Inversely, would we be going up without wider merchant adoption??)

At some point, will come the tipping point, where this downwards pressure cannot contain the upwards pressure, Then we will see the next rally.

As an aside, and as a bit of speculation, i can see sideways movement until around the end of May.

This is based on Tera's charts above, and my own (amateur) reading of the tea leaves charts.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers

The cultists are finally coming out of the closet and openly admitting the cultist nature of bitcoin. That's not good marketing. I wonder, how long will it take until your manor will be called the temple..
In the end, all of the bitcoins will be held by The True Believers. No question about that. It's questionable though, if those final True Believers are able to add much value to bitcoin. But who knows, even Scientology has amassed a large amount of wealth, and their ideology is even more ridiculous. But that's mainly because of clever marketing, and till now, the marketing for bitcoin hasn't been very clever.

Rpietila, hire me as an outside consultant, who is not an True Believer, but who knows exactly how the Unbelievers think. Let's make this cult big and powerful, and let me help you to be the beacon of light and the bringer of truth! Stop scrabbling for the mortgages and college funds of the regular folks, and let's switch to more potential targets, like the inexperienced youth who have inherited a large amount of wealth. Let's stop this meaningless fighting between us and let's join forces, so I can help you have eight late-teen wives and present yourself as an demigod!

[Cassius]

just makes more coins go from unbelievers to believers

The cultists are finally coming out of the closet and openly admitting the cultist nature of bitcoin. That's not good marketing. I wonder, how long will it take until your manor will be called the temple..
In the end, all of the bitcoins will be held by The True Believers. No question about that. It's questionable though, if those final True Believers are able to add much value to bitcoin. But who knows, even Scientology has amassed a large amount of wealth, and their ideology is even more ridiculous. But that's mainly because of clever marketing, and till now, the marketing for bitcoin hasn't been very clever.

Rpietila, hire me as an outside consultant, who is not an True Believer, but who knows exactly how the Unbelievers think. Let's make this cult big and powerful, and let me help you to be the beacon of light and the bringer of truth! Stop scrabbling for the mortgages and college funds of the regular folks, and let's switch to more potential targets, like the inexperienced youth who have inherited a large amount of wealth. Let's stop this meaningless fighting between us and let's join forces, so I can help you have eight late-teen wives and present yourself as an demigod!

Join me and we can rule the galaxy as father and son...

[aminorex]

Only if they hold BTC, if they convert straight to fiat as most do then it actaully creates downward pressure on the market.

No, even if they immediately exchange for another currency, it still creates a demand when people use BTC.  While that BTC is in the air, it can't be used for anything else.  The number of BTC-days consumed in the transaction is a reduction in money supply.

[hdbuck]

TO THE MOOOOON !

-> http://www.coindesk.com/jeff-garzik-announces-partnership-launch-bitcoin-satellites-space/