6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.
$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
You probably meant 7 digits for 2mil, for example...sorry
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I can't think of any 6 digit number to be a fu situation...a nice chunk of "change", but hardly a fu, even in the heartland and forget about it on the coasts.
I am pretty sure that he was referring to BTC prices reaching $100k would contribute towards many WO members getting into FU status, so that would mean only 20 BTC if we are talking about spot price.. so it is a bit bothersome for me because he seemed to be including himself in that group.. even though I thought that we was on board using the bottom price rather than the top price in order to figure out when some of us might be reaching entry-level fuck you status.. referring to the current $2 million default/reference level.
So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..
So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
Yea, the thought occurred that if you had been through several doublings (since, for example, 2015), then you don't really need much of those to make bank, so to speak.
Each new doubling becomes very sweet.
Doublings are amazing ways to achieve compounding, and even if you shave BTC off along the way, you still would achieve a lot of compounding, especially if you are shaving off way less than 50% of your stash for every doubling.. so if you were shaving off in the ballpark of 10% for every doubling, then you have 40% compounding each time, and sure it is not as good as having a full stash, but it is still pretty amazing, especially since many times regular investing probably tends to ONLY perform in the range of 5% to 12% per years, so it has historically taken 6-10 years to double.. and even if BTC has not doubled every year, but it came pretty damned close in the last 8-9 years it had right around 7-8 doublings, retraced back to 6 yet is still in a pretty solid territory of 7 doublings and coming upon 8.
Now there might be some guys who might have started in those same areas, but still would rather start with something like a $300 -$500 starting point, so that would throw things off a bit and maybe even take away an additional doubling, but it still ends up being amazing performance even if the doublings of value end up being every few years rather than every year.
It's one thing to double from $500 to $1000 (or even $5000 to $10000) and a completely different story to double from, say, $50 mil to $100mil in an extreme case (a 750 btc theoretical guy/gal with about $50 mil at ATH in 2021 will be at $100 mil when btc would be at 133K, a very doable price point).
There surely are some WO members (maybe even historical) who might have had those kinds of numbers, but even if we try to be a bit more realistic with stack sizes of around 100 BTC.. if we use spot price, then those guys would have reached $6.9 million in 2021, and then corrected back down to $1.6 million and then currently be back to around $5.2 million and surely you are not going to be sneezing at $10 million for $100k BTC prices, are you? Maybe you, personally, feel that you would need more cushion than that, but even another doubling from $100k to $200k is surely doable, too. .whether it is in this cycle or having to wait another cycle.. and it seems that a guy should be able to work with $20 million..
Even though I am seeming to be the party poop in this particular case, because even though I would likely not be afraid to be shaving off some of those BTC, even for a guy with a measly 100 BTC, but I am also not going to be valuing that at spot price when it comes to the determination that it has either reached entry level fuck you status or some amount above that in order to get started.
So even with 100 BTC (which surely is a nice round number that we should be able to easily work with and even attempt to make it a bit more relatable for guys of more modest means), we even had a regular WO member who continued to tell us that he had 100 BTC, but he has not been coming around in recent times, so that kind of sucks.. easy come, easy go... or maybe it is not so easy come, and easy go, if you are not careful? which many of us likely realize that is not easy to be your own bank.. even if we take a lot of precautions..
So getting back to fair valuations, I surely would consider the 100 BTC to be well into entry level fuck you status and somewhat free to be engaging in various levels of sustainable withdrawal.. including that current bottom prices are still going to put the 100 BTC guy at 3.11 million and bottom price values going up at a pace of about $3,300 per day.. so there is a lot of cushion to even be spending at relatively low withdrawal rates if there might be some concerns that there are desires to get the principle value up to something closer to $10 million, so that would be around another 3x increase in the 200-week moving average.. and the higher the spot price goes the more that the spot price draws the 200-week moving average upwardly.
Even my entry level fuck you status chart projects 100 BTC to be worth $10million, in terms of bottom BTC prices by early 2029.. so that really is not that far away.. 5 years from now..
I am not sure where you are at Biodom, but I get the sense that even you are more inclined to want to keep your wealth in BTC rather than me, since you talk about not wanting to sell any, and there is nothing really wrong with that, yet I get the sense that not very large amounts of BTC need to be shaved off, except surely we have to try to live with more prudence if the BTC prices are way closer to the 200-WMA versus if they are quite a bit above the 200-WMA... like now with BTC spot prices aroudn 67% above the 200-WMA.. and maybe that is more or less a fair range, even though maybe in the future, we might consider 25% above the 200 WMA to be more reasonable on a regular basis versus how erratic that BTC spot tends to get.
750 btc was a bit less than $10K in early 2013, affordable to many, but only a few people got that then.
I am sure, only few hundreds to few thousands individuals, worldwide, not more than that.
The fact that so few own that many coins seem like a reason to not be fantasizing about them, even if some of them might be present in this thread... One thing is accumulating that many coins and another thing is still having that number of coins and being able to manage them right now.
Even my fuck you status chart shows that level of coins entering into fuck you status in mid-to-late 2018... although back then we were still considering $1 million as entry level fuck you status which would have gotten him into entry level fuck you status in late 2017... but surely the 2090-week moving average continued to move up quite rapidly in those days.. and probably we still consider the 200-week moving average to be moving up rapidly but the quantity of coins that it takes to reach entry level fuck you status has ongoingly tended to change quite dramatically - and yeah in the ongoing and persistent downward direction.
72 maybe 80k which I think JJG calls wake me up is true bull.
You surely are getting my own terms mixed up.
And, currently I am considering $55k to $82k to be within no man's land or maybe bat country.. which largely is 20% on each side of the current ATH, which means that it is not too likely that the BTC price will be hanging around in those territories.. and sure it could take a few weeks to get through that whole zone, but relatively speaking it is not a place to be selling or a place that there should be much resistance.. but sure, anything can end up happening, but the odds are not really in favor of spending very much time between around 20% below and 20% above the current ATH.
Sure I could be wrong.. even though I find it a bit retarded for some people to be planning to sell BIGGEDly within that zone or even to be getting excited about it.. and yeah people can do what they like and they can get excited over what they like.. and yeah, don't get me wrong, I am likely to be getting excited too.. but I still won't be expecting to be hangin around those prices for very long... even if it might seem like a long time while we are going through it, but it is quite likely that when we look back at that price range after we get through it, it may well end up not being a lot of time that we had been hanging out there.... but hey, it surely is not 100% and anything can happen.. but you still need to consider in terms of what is more likely to happen... and hopefully act accordingly.. .
I don't really change my system very much even when I have some predictions, so I will still have sales in that area that are tending to be a bit smaller than usual.. but really the sales still exist for me.. even though I don't expect to be able to buy back for any of those sales.. even though sometimes we will have quickie ups and downs in those areas (do they call that fake-outs?) and sometimes there will end up being a lot of drying up of liquidity so the price moves a lot up and the buy orders do not keep up, so then it drops a lot and then the sell orders do not keep up and then it shoots back up because there are hardly any sell orders.. and so that is just typically what ends up happening when the BTC price moves fast in one direction.
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