It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way? I have my doubts.
I agree with you that it is going to cross $100k by the middle of this year, not only that but I think it will break all the previous records this time, if that happens then many people will become millionaires very easily.
Be careful in measuring millionaire status by the BTC spot price - and surely at some point $100k is also going to end up being a bottom and that BTC prices will not ever go below that point again, yet it is hard to consider yourself millionaire status if you are merely measuring from spot price changes in BTC, unless you sell your BTC .. and should any of us be considering that?
On the other hand, if you are considering your BTC valuation in terms of bottoms rather than tops, then that is more conducive to a millionaire status kind of thinking..
or maybe you could end up doing something like AlcoHoDL, even though it did not really seem to make as much sense on the first few rolls that he said it, yet in his case, if he was wanting to think of his lil selfie as millionaire status, then he would need to reach 5x that amount to then rest assured that he reached millionaire status.. .. so he is using the top to measure his status, but he is not resting assured until the spot price is 5x the threshold.. .. which still seems a bit crazy.. but it is kind of presuming the odds of greater than an 80% correction are not very great.. which probably would be true.So hopefully if you are considering $100k as millionaire status then you have something closer to 50 BTC rather than 10 BTC.. even though surely we could still feel good to be millionaire on paper if we are thinking that we are not going to be selling in order to lock in our status (which may well not be a good idea).
I am much more comfortable using the 200-WMA as my measure of BTC value... yet at the same time, it is not likely to be moving up very much merely if BTC's spot price ends up making it to $100k by the middle of this year or even somewhere in that ballpark.. give or take 3-6 months.
Right now with current BTC price dynamics of the last 200 weeks and especially including our last few months, we are ontrack to get most-likely scenarios of anywhere between around an 18% to 22% increase in the 200-WMA for this latest 6-month period that ends in the end of May, even though
my entry-level fuck you status chart had ONLY projected it as 16%... so whatever, I am likely going to adjust my projections a wee bit in order to account for that.... but it feels a bit dirty.. .. and maybe I can just change each of the next 3 to be in the 20% arena (even though I initially projected 16%-ish), but then once I do that, then I start to feel tempted to change the percentage increase expectations further down the line.. so it just feels a bit awkward, and PlanB gets accused of the same kind of science in which he is continuing to make adjustments to his model based on current events.. and I don't personally have any problem with that.. since I am trying to project into the future based on present facts. and those present facts change and they also seem to change the future projections. .and maybe a bit of tweaking every 6 months in order to attempt to account for what the last 6 months did would be in some kind of order and good (best) practices.
This is a fair explanation of my approach. After posting my last week's Sunday Haikus, I felt the need to clarify things a little bit, because simply saying "5x spot price" seems a bit misleading to someone who doesn't know the details.
Basically, my approach takes the most recent cycle spot peak price, calculates the BTC needed for $2M fuck you status and multiplies that BTC amount by 5. The resulting BTC amount then stays fixed for 4 years, until the next cycle peak. So, for example, the last spot peak price (@ late-2021) was $69k, so my current f.u. status calculation is as follows:
$2M / $69k = 29 BTC
My current f.u. status: 29 x 5 =
145 BTC (since late-2021 and staying fixed until late-2025)
Assuming an upcoming peak of $200k (likely @ late-2025), my new, updated f.u. status would drop to ($2M / $200k) x 5 = 10 BTC x 5 =
50 BTC (will stay fixed until late-2029).
It's like having a f.u. status threshold of $10M and applying it to the cycle spot peak price, forming a staircase with 4-years per step (similar to PlanB's S2F charts).
OTOH, the current f.u. status based on the 200 WMA (currently @ $31k) would be as follows:
$2M / $31k =
65 BTCThe 200 WMA is undoubtedly a more stable, more "math & science" f.u. status estimation approach, but seems a bit over-optimistic to me. As things currently stand, I don't think 65 BTC is a sufficiently realistic f.u. status amount, as compared to 145 BTC which gives me a nice 2x cushion vs. the 200 WMA approach. By the time spot price reaches $200k, the 200 WMA will likely have reached $50k, so there will be a 50 BTC vs. 40 BTC amount for f.u. status at that time, thus making my approach more conservative overall. I know that this comes from my own conservative nature, and I don't claim that my approach is better. It just suits my own conservative style of doing things.
Also, if you compare the above with
your entry-level fuck you status chart, you will see that our calculations/estimations follow the same trend at the 4-year peak times (145 vs. 112 BTC @ late-2021 and 50 vs. 37 BTC @ late-2025), with my numbers on the more conservative side, and with the major difference that I keep the f.u. status BTC amount fixed between spot peaks, whereas you are reducing it every 6 months. This makes my approach even more conservative as we go deep into each cycle.
I hope the above text spaghetti makes some sense...
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