Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[edwardspitz]

The price rises nicely and steadily, but Bitfinex sentiment Index suddenly turned bearish (it has been bullish almost all the time)

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

what do you guys think? Why be more bearish now than yesterday or two days ago? I was actually becoming optimistic about this recent price raise. Are we for some nasty surprise?

If you are expecting a rise you could be in for a surprise I think. I do not follow the Bitfinex BSI indicator so I don't know how it usually behaves, but I remember that Fonzie was joking that the BSI turning bearish could indicate that it was a good time to buy. But seriously I think Bitfinex BSI indicator is some sort of RSI indicator, so when the market is overbought the BSI will turn bearish and when the market is oversold it will turn bullish. I wouldn't rely on it  

Edit: Spelling

[derpinheimer]

Oke I'm changing to bearish. This whale is just flipping his coins for $10-20 profit, not real buys.

(unless $465 gets eaten, then I wont know what to think)

[aminorex]

every day is generated about 4500 new bitcoins, or, for 30 days 135000 new bitcoin,
but who will to pay for it ?

how many million ( or billion??? ) dose the FED print daily? who pays for that? oh ya it come out of thin air, that's good!

Coins mined today are either pre-sold on contract or being hodl'd for a non-bankrupting price.

[igorr]

It's just what happens when demand outstrips supply.

every day is generated about 4500 new bitcoins, or, for 30 days 135000 new bitcoin,
but who will to pay for it ?

how many million ( or billion??? ) dose the FED print daily? who pays for that? oh ya it come out of thin air, that's good!

135000 new bitcoin every month x  current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it with real money. But who ?

[KFR]

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

[podyx]

It's just what happens when demand outstrips supply.

every day is generated about 4500 new bitcoins, or, for 30 days 135000 new bitcoin,
but who will to pay for it ?

how many million ( or billion??? ) dose the FED print daily? who pays for that? oh ya it come out of thin air, that's good!

135000 new bitcoin every month x  current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it with real money. But who ?

I'd pay the fucking lot if I had $61 million
It's free money

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

135000 new bitcoin every month x  current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it for real money. But who ?

You should also be asking, "when?"

[igorr]

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

21 milion will be mined for 120 year, regardless of mining speed (network hashrate),
but bitcoin will dies for next 5-6 months.

[KFR]

[igorr]

135000 new bitcoin every month x  current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it for real money. But who ?

You should also be asking, "when?"

is excessive offer bitcoins, and too little money

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[igorr]

I think 2140 year is the end, 21 000 000 bitcoins will be mined.

[ChrisML]

Am I a pro trader now that I've said BTC will be reach $460 on may 1st?

Anyways. Lets get out of this fucking 400 zone.

[sidhujag]

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

21 milion will be mined for 120 year, regardless of mining speed (network hashrate),
but bitcoin will dies for next 5-6 months.

Even without mtgox demand outstrips supply by 10x atleast. Look at avg daily volume divide by 10. Now you know your answer if you know 1+1=2 gluck.

[JayJuanGee]

See my above post: I don't think it's a problem as long as bitcoins are legal, and I would not at all be worried about buying or selling bitcoins on localbitcoins. All I'm saying is if bitcoins became illegal, catching you purchasing or selling them through an ad would not be considered entrapment under current law.

I believe that this entrapment only becomes an issue if you are selling BTC on Localbitcoins, and your buyer starts to tell you that they are going to do illegal activities with the bitcoins.  I don't know why the fuck anyone would want to tell me what they are going to do with their bitcoins b/c I could give one flying fuck about how they are going to use them.  However, if someone starts to tell you what they are going to do and it is illegal activities, just refuse to sell to those people.  They may be feds.  The feds need the piece of information that you knowingly sold to someone who is engaged in illegal activities to facilitate their operation and you become an agent... I think that this whole situation and govt conduct is bullshit in this area, but that is what the feds are doing in order to charge BTC sellers with crimes.

[greenlion]

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

21 milion will be mined for 120 year, regardless of mining speed (network hashrate),
but bitcoin will dies for next 5-6 months.

This is a pedantic observation, but since you're an obvious substanceless troll, it's worth pointing out that it does depend on hashrate, because retargeting is never perfect to exactly 10 minutes over a difficulty period, so in the face of increasing network hashrate, the rate at which new coins are mined does depend on how fast the hashrate is growing.

[JorgeStolfi]

You really need a primer in how the finance world is structured, Jorge.  I recommend Veale, "Stocks Bonds Options Futures".  (While I am at it, many of the forum posters would probably be interested in Kuznetsov, "The Complete Guide to Capital Markets for Quantitative Professionals", which was my vademecum during my first month working at a fixed income fund.)

Being on "Wall St" (which is really midtown now, and has been for about 50 years or so) it is clear to me that you are describing sell side business operations.  There are two primary categories of participants in securities markets:  The sell side and the buy side.  Wall St. is in bitcoin in a very small way.  Some funds are buying mined coins on contract.  Lots of people on the street hold in personal accounts.  Most lines of business are oriented towards rent-seeking and tightly managed risk.  I'm sure that some market makers are looking at providing btc options and futures, but it will be slow in maturing.  In terms of mainline buy side participation, that's very limited, and mostly in private capital accounts.  None of these will make big splashes, because they are smart money, and they know better.  Retail offerings will come from sell siders creating product, and that will be dumb money, and it will make a big splash.

Thanks.  I admit that I have a vey foggy (to be generous) idea of what people here mean by the term "Wall Street".   I though that "Wall Street investing in bitcoin " meant companies like Fortress buying bitcoins as an asset that they expected to increase in value, just as they could invest in gold.

By the way, about mining: China's foreign trade balance could profit from it in two ways, by mining bitcoins that they could sell in the West for dollars, and by selling hardware to miners.  Are there estimates of how much (dollars) those activities amount to?

[derpinheimer]

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

21 milion will be mined for 120 year, regardless of mining speed (network hashrate),
but bitcoin will dies for next 5-6 months.

Even without mtgox demand outstrips supply by 10x atleast. Look at avg daily volume divide by 10. Now you know your answer if you know 1+1=2 gluck.

... what on Earth does daily volume have to do with demand? 

[igorr]

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

21 milion will be mined for 120 year, regardless of mining speed (network hashrate),
but bitcoin will dies for next 5-6 months.

This is a pedantic observation, but since you're an obvious substanceless troll, it's worth pointing out that it does depend on hashrate, because retargeting is never perfect to exactly 10 minutes over a difficulty period, so in the face of increasing network hashrate, the rate at which new coins are mined does depend on how fast the hashrate is growing.

Around ten years from now only 450 or so coins will be mined per day.  There's only ever going to be 21 million regardless of how quickly any of us manage to get our hands on them.  

21 milion will be mined for 120 year, regardless of mining speed (network hashrate),
but bitcoin will dies for next 5-6 months.

This is a pedantic observation, but since you're an obvious substanceless troll, it's worth pointing out that it does depend on hashrate, because retargeting is never perfect to exactly 10 minutes over a difficulty period, so in the face of increasing network hashrate, the rate at which new coins are mined does depend on how fast the hashrate is growing.

"How long will it take to generate all the coins?
The last block that will generate coins will be block #6,929,999 which should be generated at or near the year 2140. The total number of coins in circulation will then remain static at 20,999,999.9769 BTC.

Even if the allowed precision is expanded from the current 8 decimals, the total BTC in circulation will always be slightly below 21 million (assuming everything else stays the same). For example, with 16 decimals of precision, the end total would be 20,999,999.999999999496 BTC."


https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/FAQ  
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

[JayJuanGee]

You do realize that nothing needs to be certain, only "beyond a reasonable doubt" to get a conviction, right? If someone goes on a website designed to distribute something, then purchases that something after seeing an ad, it's pretty reasonable to think that they intended to buy that something regardless of which ad they read.

To say that it is an unreasonable assumption would surely be independent thought, but independent does not mean correct.

EDIT: Let's try this with something legal that isn't bitcoin to see if it sticks. I want to buy the most beautiful bow for my daughters birthday present. I go on etsy or some shit and start looking up bows. I see this one ad with this terrific bow, it's so beautiful and perfect! So I buy it. Wouldn't it be reasonable to say if I didn't see that ad, I would not have simply given up on buying bows, but rather would have bought a different bow?

Let's say a friend of mine told me about this site localbitcoins.com and I went there to go and see what this bitcoin thing was all about with no intention to buy, but I saw this ad (put up by the FBI) and I just couldn't resist because it was just so easy.

There are probably 100's of examples for both arguments, so it would all go down to your day in court and how you handle yourself, I guess.

It is a pretty rare case that would make it all the way to court.  You are going to feel a lot of pressure to settle.  The facts have to be that you are either saying that you are engaging in illegal activity or facilitating someone else to engage in illegal activity.  To protect yourself, you should NOT be engaging in transactions with people who are telling you that they plan to engage in illegal activities with their BTC.