Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rpietila]

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming [ ... ]  These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low [... ]

How does China fit into this picture?  And the growing list of scams and failures of bitcoin-related ventures?

I am just taking the long-term view and big picture. A large percentage have not even heard of china. The list of scams and failed bitcoin ventures is growing every year, so up until now, the correlation with bitcoin price is positive. What I am trying to explain, are the mechanisms that always take Bitcoin up from the abyss where the majority believes that all hope is lost.

Eg. my own purchase was motivated with the following analysis:
- 75% it will go to zero
- 25% it will turn back and reach ATH, in which case I make 10x.

I know there are more people like this in the world, who buy cheaply, don't read news (they are lies) or forums (who would write anything worthwhile), and are expecting to lose all. Nothing can shake them once they have bought. That's the beauty of it

If bitcoin goes down another 6 months, all the coins belong to the likes of me. You still think the price will go down afterwards?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

This is clearly the pre-amble for the big rally to $5,000

This. And the fact the we didn't hit $550 by May 4th is actually very bullish and Chinese exchanges closing should fill everybody with optimism and hope

[njcarlos]

who would write anything worthwhile

Ain't that the truth, rpietila.

Btw, $10,000 by EOY?

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

Yep never seen it quite like this. Any ideas on the cause?

Here is one: they are traders (possibly unexperienced) who bought at much higher price, say 4000¥.  They have been waiting patiently for the price to go up again to those levels.  But now that the the future of Chinese exchanges is uncertain they got desperate and are clumsily trying to push the price up with those fake bid walls.  But they cannot just leave the bids there, since they definitely do not want to buy.  So they must remove them whenever they have to leave the computer for any reason.

[podyx]

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

Yep never seen it quite like this. Any ideas on the cause?

Here is one: they are traders (possibly unexperienced) who bought at much higher price, say 4000¥.  They have been waiting patiently for the price to go up again to those levels.  But now that the the future of Chinese exchanges is uncertain they got desperate and are clumsily trying to push the price up with those fake bid walls.  But they cannot just leave the bids there, since they definitely do not want to buy.  So they must remove them whenever they have to leave the computer for any reason.

Why would they not be able to send them to their wallet and sell some other time when price is better then?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[p0peji]

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

Yep never seen it quite like this. Any ideas on the cause?

Here is one: they are traders (possibly unexperienced) who bought at much higher price, say 4000¥.  They have been waiting patiently for the price to go up again to those levels.  But now that the the future of Chinese exchanges is uncertain they got desperate and are clumsily trying to push the price up with those fake bid walls.  But they cannot just leave the bids there, since they definitely do not want to buy.  So they must remove them whenever they have to leave the computer for any reason.

Why would they not be able to send them to their wallet and sell some other time when price is better then?

Sell them where? And that is IF the price will be better. 

[LMGTFY]

Here is one: they are traders (possibly unexperienced) who bought at much higher price, say 4000¥.  They have been waiting patiently for the price to go up again to those levels.  But now that the the future of Chinese exchanges is uncertain they got desperate and are clumsily trying to push the price up with those fake bid walls.  But they cannot just leave the bids there, since they definitely do not want to buy.  So they must remove them whenever they have to leave the computer for any reason.

Why would they not be able to send them to their wallet and sell some other time when price is better then?

Sell them where? And that is IF the price will be better. 

Any exchange outside the PRC? As I understand it, China's exchange controls are one-way.

[octaft]

It will be interesting when the consumer group comes into the picture. Circle is working on this area, I believe. I'm looking forward to the day they roll out their services.
If you notice, it seems btc now benefits merchants more than consumers. Merchants save on credit card fees but consumers cannot benefit unless merchants pass down the savings. When consumers benefit, that will be when the consumer group will come in.

The second part of your post pretty well encapsulates how I feel. I would not be betting my bitcoin hopes and dreams on the consumer, as bitcoin is a payment method that is extremely brutal on the consumer. It offers some merchant protection, but nobody gives a shit about protecting the merchant, because what is the merchant going to do? Stop selling their stuff/services and go out of business? Whereas the consumer can simply take their money elsewhere. Why do you think the merchants pay all the credit card processing fees? Nobody cares about the merchant.

[JorgeStolfi]

Here is one: they are traders (possibly unexperienced) who bought at much higher price, say 4000¥.  They have been waiting patiently for the price to go up again to those levels.  But now that the the future of Chinese exchanges is uncertain they got desperate and are clumsily trying to push the price up with those fake bid walls.  [ ... ]

Why would they not be able to send them to their wallet and sell some other time when price is better then?

If the Chinese exchanges are going to close, where would they sell them?  For most Chinese, the non-Chinese exchanges must be as viable as the Chinese ones are for Westerners.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[igorr]

Here is one: they are traders (possibly unexperienced) who bought at much higher price, say 4000¥.  They have been waiting patiently for the price to go up again to those levels.  But now that the the future of Chinese exchanges is uncertain they got desperate and are clumsily trying to push the price up with those fake bid walls.  [ ... ]

Why would they not be able to send them to their wallet and sell some other time when price is better then?

If the Chinese exchanges are going to close, where would they sell them?  For most Chinese, the non-Chinese exchanges must be as viable as the Chinese ones are for Westerners.

Logic,
Chinese people will sell all on Bitstamp.

[Richy_T]

It sounds like the localbitcoin guys did everything right. Anyways, it is incredible, that people are still able to pull the "reboot my server please" attack in 2014..

Indeed. I think their hosting provider should be named and shamed.

[JorgeStolfi]

If the Chinese exchanges are going to close, where would they sell them?  For most Chinese, the non-Chinese exchanges must be as viable as the Chinese ones are for Westerners.

Logic,  Chinese people will sell all on Bitstamp.

Arbitragers and some other clients will do that.  But most Chinese clients would need to open a bank account in the West in order to withdraw dollars from Bitstamp, and then will have to convert those dollars to CNY so that they can spend them at home.  Since the price at Bitstamp is unlikely to go much higher than now in the near future, many will rather sell now at Huobi.

[BitAddict]

If the Chinese exchanges are going to close, where would they sell them?  For most Chinese, the non-Chinese exchanges must be as viable as the Chinese ones are for Westerners.

Logic,  Chinese people will sell all on Bitstamp.

Arbitragers and some other clients will do that.  But most Chinese clients would need to open a bank account in the West in order to withdraw dollars from Bitstamp, and then will have to convert those dollars to CNY so that they can spend them at home.  Since the price at Bitstamp is unlikely to go much higher than now in the near future, many will rather sell now at Huobi.

What about Btc-e?

They can sell them for CNH. Of course is not the same than CNY, but they can keep trading with their currency.

[igorr]

If the Chinese exchanges are going to close, where would they sell them?  For most Chinese, the non-Chinese exchanges must be as viable as the Chinese ones are for Westerners.

Logic,  Chinese people will sell all on Bitstamp.

Arbitragers and some other clients will do that.  But most Chinese clients would need to open a bank account in the West in order to withdraw dollars from Bitstamp, and then will have to convert those dollars to CNY so that they can spend them at home.  Since the price at Bitstamp is unlikely to go much higher than now in the near future, many will rather sell now at Huobi.

What about Btc-e?

They can sell them for CNH. Of course is not the same than CNY, but they can keep trading with their currency.

The problem is the next,

In Chinese banks, incoming funds from BTC-e, Bitstamp or any exchange will be baned.

[JorgeStolfi]

What about Btc-e?

They can sell them for CNH. Of course is not the same than CNY, but they can keep trading with their currency.

But can they withdraw the CNH from BTC-e to their mainland bank account?

[igorr]

What about Btc-e?

They can sell them for CNH. Of course is not the same than CNY, but they can keep trading with their currency.

But can they withdraw the CNH from BTC-e to their mainland bank account?

The secondary problem is,
form China will comes a lot new bitcoins to Bitstamp and BTC-e and it will crash the price.
Just check Huobi volumes !

[lemonte]

What about Btc-e?

They can sell them for CNH. Of course is not the same than CNY, but they can keep trading with their currency.

But can they withdraw the CNH from BTC-e to their mainland bank account?

The secondary problem is,
form China will comes a lot new bitcoins to Bitstamp and BTC-e and it will crash the price.
Just check fake Huobi volumes !

FTFY

If the Chinese exchanges are going to close, where would they sell them?  For most Chinese, the non-Chinese exchanges must be as viable as the Chinese ones are for Westerners.

Logic,  Chinese people will sell all on Bitstamp.

Arbitragers and some other clients will do that.  But most Chinese clients would need to open a bank account in the West in order to withdraw dollars from Bitstamp, and then will have to convert those dollars to CNY so that they can spend them at home.  Since the price at Bitstamp is unlikely to go much higher than now in the near future, many will rather sell now at Huobi.

What about Btc-e?

They can sell them for CNH. Of course is not the same than CNY, but they can keep trading with their currency.
[/quote]

The problem is the next,

In Chinese banks, incoming funds from BTC-e, Bitstamp or any exchange will be baned.
[/quote]

They are in most countries, look around at people receiving payments from exchanges and having their accounts banned. That is why I deal with Kraken, the payments come via SEPA from "Payward Ltd"