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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26484107 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
flynn
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May 05, 2014, 08:12:39 PM

add this.. hahaha!  Grin Grin




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May 05, 2014, 08:29:40 PM

Try to stay objective, okay?
Are you coaching yourself here?   

I do NOT want to assume anything, but it seems to me that you may be a little frustrated to have to defend your comment because you are internally of the belief that it is so obviously an objective fact that bitcoin followers are cultish, and NOT an insult to be calling people in this thread cultists.  Just because it has some basis in truth, and you can find some of the pointed out behaviours in the real world does NOT make the conclusion correct.  A lot of myths have some basis in reality.  A lot of propaganda has some basis in reality.  A lot of trolling comments have some basis in reality.  Merely because some observed conclusions have some basis in reality does NOT make them true.



So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so.

I do think so.  You are trying to simplify matters, and you are trying to suggest that a large number of people who are pro-bitcoin have NO brains. 


As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

You do NOT have numbers because the accusation is based on purely anecdotal evidence.  Surely, cultish can mean a lot of different things, but it does have a definition and the definition is generally derogatory and applied to religious behavior.  Bitcoin is NOT a religion and NOT religious behavior, even though there may be some examples in which you can point to people within bitcoin who are demonstrating those same kinds of behaviours.  Even though you can point to that kind of behavior in various bitcoin communities, that mere fact does NOT meet the cultish definition for the group or to say “many in here” are cultish goes to imply that coltishness is some kind of wide-spread phenomenon in bitcoin.

Remember the guy who sold his house to invest it all in btc. Zero risk control, just puts all his wealth into one of the riskiest assets on earth. What's the overwhelming response in his thread? "Good on you! You won't regret it!". The dissenting voices are in the minority. That's cultish, in my book.
So what?  Some people are going to demonstrate irrational exuberance with all kinds of their investments, and bitcoin should be no different than that.  At what price did he invest in bitcoin?  Is he currently at a profit or a loss?  If he is holding long term, then great, he may be ahead at some point in the near future.  But with any investment, he may lose the amount that he invested.  The fact that people agree with his investment does NOT prove that it is a cult, either, it proves that they have confidence that the odds are good for btc prices to go up.  For example, if you invest $1000 in bitcoin, you could lose $1000 or you could potentially gain $100,000 or some in between result could occur.  The mere fact that someone is betting the farm on bitcoin does NOT necessarily mean that bitcoin is a cult or that his behavior was cultish.  It depends on the circumstances of that particular case.


 








The kneejerk reaction to mentioning the /possibility/ of total failure of our little experiment. Please note, the exact likelihood of total failure (as in: price approaching 0) is up for debate, but I'm pretty sure a rational observer will admit that there is a real chance for the (publically traded) price to go back to 0 (or at least, close to it), in case of catastrophic failure of parts of the network (like a major flaw on the encryption side), or some other event that causes an absolute loss of trust in the safety of the network. Try talking about that in here. The responses /should/ be "Okay, that's possible, but unlikely." The responses /are/ actually "No! Absolutely impossible! Logically invalid!".

So what?  Surely there are some people who think that it is impossible for bitcoin to go to zero, but I would think that would be an exception.  I would think that most here would admit that there are real possibilities that bitcoin could go to zero, but they put the odds of that very low.  That does NOT make them a cult, even though some people here may from time to time be inarticulate or incomprehensible when making their response to any given situation (myself included).  Sometimes we talk in extreme terms or exaggerate our positions to make a point – even though if push comes to shove we may NOT be 100% wedded to the point that we are making.  Some comments are spins, some comments are visceral reactions and some comments are very well thought through.  In a streaming forum, you are going to get a wide array of reactions, and do NOT expect all of the reactions to be well thought through or a reflection of the posters true and deep down feelings or beliefs.




Go back a few pages when TERA suggested offhandedly what a blockchain "reset" would look like, and look at the reactions. That's cultish.

Yes, agreed that this kind of thing could happen with bitcoin and cause considerable logistical difficulties and possibly even completely destroy some or all of the value in the bitcoin holders.  Again, so what?  How likely is this to happen?  Does this possibility mean that I should sell my BTC today?  I am personally diversified, and NOT everyone is diversified in a balanced way… but so what?  People take risks, and some of us (probably many of us) are NOT technologically sophisticated enough to really understand the various technological components of bitcoin and to assess the likelihood of a blockchain reset.  Even technological people do NOT understand all aspects of bitcoin when it comes to dealing with all possibilities of human corruption or the abilities of humans to employ quantum computing or social engineering to undermine or to destroy or to manipulate bitcoin in various ways. 
Merely because we do NOT understand it and merely because we dismiss various potentially valid arguments does NOT make us cultish.

 



The sense of "We're in this together, on the way up, and on the way down." It's only human to band together, but the article is spot on when it points out the phrasing of those "public messages" by well known BTC community members, that sound like rallying cries, to keep the troops in line. It's like military esprit de corps, or, well, a cult.


You may know that bitcoin is being attacked in various ways and bitcoin is a threat in various ways to many status quo forces.  There may be some we behavior going on and attempts to rally solidarity, but in the end, there are a lot of individuals who are making decisions for themselves.  Some people my follow andreas antonopolis (or some other bitcoin enthusiasts/evangelists) and to listen to everything that he says… so what?    Sometimes, trust is built, but are we going to drink coolaide when they tell us to drink coolaide.  Some will, but so what?  Overall, there is NOT that much control over “many.”  “Many” have considerable confidence that bitcoin is going to continue to prosper and to expand and to go up in prices.  “Many” also hope and pray that BTC goes up in prices so that they can make a lot of money… so what?  These behaviors are NOT cultish, just because you and others in the mainstream media keep repeating that they are cultish. 



In case this is important to you, I still believe BTC has a real shot at success (where the exact type of success is up for debate). But I completely agree with Blitz: a lot of arguments in here are very clearly not motivated by rational analysis, but by make believe and selective perception.

So you are trying to suggest that you see reality better than other people? You and Blitz.  You guys/gals are objective and the rest of us are delusional?  Get off your high horse.  Many people go through the same kinds of mixed feelings as you an blitz – though maybe others are NOT so presumptive to begin to call others names because of their knowledge level.  Surely, there are several levels of knowledge, and sometimes people just go forward with their investment choice of buy or hodl based on faith, but so what?  Some people also may NOT have a lot of time to investigate, and they will invest based on what others are doing.  Some also engage in wishful thinking and select the facts that they want to be true… and in the end, there is a lot of variety in knowledge levels and what facts people are going to recognize as being true or plausible.



To call it "cultish" is confrontational, but not wrong, in my opinion.

Yes.  It is both confrontational and wrong to call “most in here” as cultish.  It’s denigrating and it is an oversimplification, and playing into mainstream propaganda.  Even though there is some truth to the myth, you are wrong to be propagating this kind of bullshit framework in order to denigrate people who come from a variety of persepctives and many of whom would like to come to these kinds of threads and to participate in these kinds of threads in order to become better informed about bitcoin – rather than to be denigrated, merely because they may be enthusiastic about the prospects of bitcoin.
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May 05, 2014, 08:30:25 PM

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.
how do you notice that and not have any bitcoin totally blows my mind.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s I spent as much time discussing space exploration on the USENET sci.space forum as I am spending here.   Here is one of my posts from that time.  By the way, "mining" then meant extracting precious elements from asteroids to build spaceships or space colonies.

But no one ever told me that I had to put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture at least a small asteroid of my own, for my ramblings to be worthy of that forum.  Wink

PS. In 1986 the internet was restricted to universities and some computer companies, such as DEC where I pretended to work worked, and was managed by (D)ARPA.   There was no WWW; only FTP, e-mail, and USENET (a distributed bulletin board with its own protocol, UUCP).  There were no anonymous users; if anyone misbehaved badly, other people would complain to his employer/university, and that usually solved the problem.   Can you imagine an internet with no spam, no advertising, no phishing, no viruses, no webpages that steal your cycles to mine bitcoins, no silly avatars? In 1986 the first computer worm was still 3 years away.   Sigh...  Cry


I bet you were a Millenium and Deuteros player


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May 05, 2014, 08:37:08 PM

[...]

I think what you feel is healthy skepticism I (and perhaps others) feel is unnecessary pessimism. For any new idea or technology, it's basically a given that it almost certainly won't work -- and there are hordes of people who will trip over themselves to be the first to say "that's a stupid idea." In the early stages (and Bitcoin is certainly in its early stages), the most useful observations and discussions about a technology are its potential benefits, not its pitfalls. The opposite is true for well established ideas / technologies. It is not interesting or useful to say "computers are great!" or "the Internet is great!" today because it is obvious, but if you have reason to be critical of these things, then you have an independent idea worth listening to!

People who think Bitcoin is stupid VASTLY outnumber those who are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's potential. I think being optimistic about Bitcoin, despite enormous social pressure to be otherwise, is quite noble.


You have a point there (that crossed my mind as well, but I decided against mentioning it to keep it simple)... for any group to overcome overwhelming odds, some form of 'extreme group cohesion plus unwavering belief in ultimate success' is necessary.

Still, from my point of view, this unwavering belief in the /success/ of Bitcoin that is so common in here is just as irrational as the unwavering belief by the general public in the /failure/ of Bitcoin.

Can you appreciate this distinction, between the perspective that I understand might be necessary for Bitcoin to have a chance at success (i.e. the "cultish" fervor), and what I hold to be 'objectively true' (or an approximation of objective truth)?



Yes, your desire to "keep it simple" caused you to lose your own objectivity and to over generalize, to be offensive and to simply come to the wrong conclusions.

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May 05, 2014, 08:40:59 PM

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.
how do you notice that and not have any bitcoin totally blows my mind.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s I spent as much time discussing space exploration on the USENET sci.space forum as I am spending here.   Here is one of my posts from that time.  By the way, "mining" then meant extracting precious elements from asteroids to build spaceships or space colonies.

But no one ever told me that I had to put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture at least a small asteroid of my own, for my ramblings to be worthy of that forum.  Wink

PS. In 1986 the internet was restricted to universities and some computer companies, such as DEC where I pretended to work worked, and was managed by (D)ARPA.   There was no WWW; only FTP, e-mail, and USENET (a distributed bulletin board with its own protocol, UUCP).  There were no anonymous users; if anyone misbehaved badly, other people would complain to his employer/university, and that usually solved the problem.   Can you imagine an internet with no spam, no advertising, no phishing, no viruses, no webpages that steal your cycles to mine bitcoins, no silly avatars? In 1986 the first computer worm was still 3 years away.   Sigh...  Cry


I bet you were a Millenium and Deuteros player




Jorge imagine if you did  put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture a small asteroid!

imagine the possibilities!

buy now while price is low!
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May 05, 2014, 08:45:14 PM

So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.
Nice strawman, I see we have departed from the discussion at hand. Or do you believe this accusation for real?


Inca made very good points - b/c the truth of the matter is that a drop in BTC prices is NOT inevitable, NO matter what the TA may tell you.  Each side can make arguments as to the validity of his/her TA (and some people do NOT believe in the efficacy of TA), but people can also say that the TA is bullshit b/c it could also reasonably be considered to be quite a leap for others to be suggesting that BTC prices are going to continue to decline beyond where they are at today.

Neither case of going up or going down is inevitable, but it is NOT a strawman to suggest alternate viewpoints or to suggest that relying on TAs does NOT bring any inevitable conclusions.
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May 05, 2014, 08:53:12 PM

If you think the most passionate supporters of bitcoin are doing so because of cultist behavior.. you are a basic bitch.
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May 05, 2014, 08:54:59 PM

If you think the most passionate supporters of bitcoin are doing so because of cultist behavior.. you are a basic bitch.

If you're going to go with the cult propaganda, at least use the one with the more attractive chick. Smiley
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May 05, 2014, 09:00:20 PM

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one.  So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were.  In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I'm beating around the bush heavily, but with no intent to troll. It's just that people don't really know what they want until you make them think about it. I'm asking you questions to make you think about it. Imagine it an effort to open your eyes to my opinion -- that it's harder than it seems to moderate a forum and judge what is acceptable -- without gracelessly shoving it down your throat.

That's ridiculous.  NOW, you are being patronizing.. attempting to suggest that you are somehow coming from a place of higher knowledge.  You certainly do NOT know enough about me in order to come to those kinds of conclusions, even if you did happen to read all of my posts on this forum  Additionally, I have already experience several of your responses that tend to inform me that even if you had read all of my posts, either you did NOT understand half of their content or you are purposefully failing to take into account half of their content.

You seem to be wasting my time, your time and the time of anyone who may happen to be reading this interchange between us with your purported attempts to teach.

Want me to be blunt about it? Over-moderation is dumb, no forum worth posting on does it, and I often skim your posts for relevant material because I feel they tend to ramble on, sometimes incoherently, so forgive me for missing an important sentence or two every now and then.

Was that straight-forward enough for you?

Being blunt is fine, and you have a right to have your opinion.  From your prior posts, I had already had a pretty good idea about you position regarding moderation of the forum and the thread, but really neither of has said too much on this topic even though we have made a lot of posts about it in the last couple of days.  More or less, you have been suggesting that you are happy with the status quo level of moderation, and I had been suggesting that more moderation would likely weed out some of the extensive trolling to make the forum better.  But I believe this dialogue began with my comment that Blitz, as a moderator, admitted that he was posting merely to incite other posters - which irritated me, coming from a mod.

Regarding my prior posts:  I would expect that some of my posts have more value than others and some posts are better written than others (and possibly some are not very helpful or very well written), and people also have varying perceptions concerning what they perceive as valuable or helpful in a post.




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May 05, 2014, 09:00:48 PM


Explanation
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May 05, 2014, 09:06:52 PM

It is remarkable how well FXI and XBT correlate recently.
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May 05, 2014, 09:09:56 PM

If you think the most passionate supporters of bitcoin are doing so because of cultist behavior.. you are a basic bitch.

If you're going to go with the cult propaganda, at least use the one with the more attractive chick. Smiley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I8mWG6HlmU

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May 05, 2014, 09:16:14 PM

The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha
Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators.    For the next 6 months BTC should outperform.


Intriguing. Elaborate, if you will?
I know that this is off-topic, or at least off the topic that has been discussed for the last few pages, but all the same.
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May 05, 2014, 09:27:55 PM



+1 that judicious, discerning & productive moderation isn't easy or clear-cut at all, and that heavy moderation is digressive, censory & stupid.

I do NOT disagree with the above statement, and I believe the above statement is NOT inconsistent with anything that I said.



I can attest that Oct. is not the only person skimming some people's posts.. JJG's in particular, given the excessive wordiness often encountered, albeit admittedly made using excellently articulate language.

I doubt that anyone can read this whole thread with thoroughness, there are too many posts.  So likely many of us skim, and we will look at some posters more closely than others, or we may get caught by some ideas more than others.





 What's actually ridiculous, JJG, is for you to be repeatedly distraught that people "[..] definitely don't know enough about you to make such statements/claims..", while at the same time alleging that Octaft is disingenuous & imply that he could not possibly be 'coming from a place of higher knowledge..' when anyone of good cognizance who's been following his posting will definitely substantiate that he's one of the more erudite minds around here who don't get biased easily & are diligent in their intellectual approach.

I am NOT sure where how you are concluding that I am “distraught?”  I merely made a statement that a person cannot really know you from your posts.  I have made that same assertion in other contexts.  Octaft and others sometimes attempt to conclude too much from the posts of others, and I have experienced that. It does NOT make me distraught, but sometimes, I would like to point out when a conclusion is going too far and is NOT based on facts or actuality.

I did suggest that Octaft is being disingenuous during times when he is reaching conclusions that are NOT based on the record.  I did NOT suggest that he was NOT coming from a place of higher knowledge, but that it is insulting when he put on the hat as if he were suggesting that he is coming from a place of higher knowledge.  Really, it is NOT possible to put on such a hat, if a poster does NOT know enough of the relevant facts and to assume knowledge of facts that are NOT on the table.




And since we're on this topic, I'll add that it strongly appears to my perspective that these 'scandalized defensiveness' conversational tendencies and your apparent need to insert vulgar language here & there, are transparent symptoms of the insecurity you feel with some of the obsessive patterns you use when communicating, such as your characteristic capitalized 'NOT' inserted every few sentences or so ;p

Seems that the “NOT” and other all caps emphasis is stylistic, and the vulgar language from time to time may be stylistic or it may be that at that particular writing moment, that particular vulgar word seems to make my point the best (or at least better than other possible words).  I am NOT a poet, so I may get the vulgar word wrong, from time to time, and I am sure that if I were to go back to edit my fucking posts ("fucking" added for humor), those posts would suffer from considerable rewriting (and likely shortening).  NONETHELESS, the posts attempt to capture my sentiment of the moment, and they are likely longer and/or wordier than necessary… because frequently, I do NOT go back and re-read them before hitting “post.”
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May 05, 2014, 09:33:16 PM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday May 06

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2635 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/05 was fairly good (S = 0.0041, W = 0.716).  It was below but fairly close to the previously assumed trend, so it seems most reasonable to stick with it.   Fitting again a straight line to the last four data points, by weighted least squares, gives A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2746.70, B = -27.96.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.17 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.18 today (May/05), 6.16 yesterday, and 6.17, 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: SaturdaySunday 2014-05-04, 23:26 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday Monday 2014-05-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

The Method was just a tad too bullish:

Huobi's predicted price: 2676 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2656 CNY
Error: 20 CNY (~3.24 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 434 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 430 USD
Error: 3 USD
 
NOTE: "The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad." --Salvador Dalí

EDIT: May/04 was Sunday, May/05 is Monday.
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May 05, 2014, 09:34:12 PM

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.
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May 05, 2014, 09:35:38 PM

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.

Thnx  Wink
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May 05, 2014, 09:36:42 PM
Last edit: May 05, 2014, 09:47:47 PM by PoolMinor



So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:




Fanaticism != Cultism

Edit:
Until Bronco fans are grouped into the classification of a cult, I will stand by the above simple statement.
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May 05, 2014, 09:38:20 PM

still waiting for this "big drop" that everyones predicting wishing for
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May 05, 2014, 09:40:51 PM

still waiting for this "big drop" that everyones predicting wishing for

Yup, any minute now, right guys?

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