Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

Strange Monday at Huobi: a bit of trade in the morning and early afternoon, very little from 5:00 pm local time onwards.  Usually it is the other way around, trade peaks in the late afternoon and evenings.

how do you notice that and not have any bitcoin totally blows my mind.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s I spent as much time discussing space exploration on the USENET sci.space forum as I am spending here.   Here is one of my posts from that time.  By the way, "mining" then meant extracting precious elements from asteroids to build spaceships or space colonies.

But no one ever told me that I had to put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture at least a small asteroid of my own, for my ramblings to be worthy of that forum.  

PS. In 1986 the internet was restricted to universities and some computer companies, such as DEC where I pretended to work worked, and was managed by (D)ARPA.   There was no WWW; only FTP, e-mail, and USENET (a distributed bulletin board with its own protocol, UUCP).  There were no anonymous users; if anyone misbehaved badly, other people would complain to his employer/university, and that usually solved the problem.   Can you imagine an internet with no spam, no advertising, no phishing, no viruses, no webpages that steal your cycles to mine bitcoins, no silly avatars? In 1986 the first computer worm was still 3 years away.   Sigh...  

I bet you were a Millenium and Deuteros player

Jorge imagine if you did  put at least one satellite into orbit, or capture a small asteroid!

imagine the possibilities!

buy now while price is low!

[JayJuanGee]

So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.

Nice strawman, I see we have departed from the discussion at hand. Or do you believe this accusation for real?

Inca made very good points - b/c the truth of the matter is that a drop in BTC prices is NOT inevitable, NO matter what the TA may tell you.  Each side can make arguments as to the validity of his/her TA (and some people do NOT believe in the efficacy of TA), but people can also say that the TA is bullshit b/c it could also reasonably be considered to be quite a leap for others to be suggesting that BTC prices are going to continue to decline beyond where they are at today.

Neither case of going up or going down is inevitable, but it is NOT a strawman to suggest alternate viewpoints or to suggest that relying on TAs does NOT bring any inevitable conclusions.

[silverfuture]

If you think the most passionate supporters of bitcoin are doing so because of cultist behavior.. you are a basic bitch.

[octaft]

If you think the most passionate supporters of bitcoin are doing so because of cultist behavior.. you are a basic bitch.

If you're going to go with the cult propaganda, at least use the one with the more attractive chick.

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one.  So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were.  In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I'm beating around the bush heavily, but with no intent to troll. It's just that people don't really know what they want until you make them think about it. I'm asking you questions to make you think about it. Imagine it an effort to open your eyes to my opinion -- that it's harder than it seems to moderate a forum and judge what is acceptable -- without gracelessly shoving it down your throat.

That's ridiculous.  NOW, you are being patronizing.. attempting to suggest that you are somehow coming from a place of higher knowledge.  You certainly do NOT know enough about me in order to come to those kinds of conclusions, even if you did happen to read all of my posts on this forum  Additionally, I have already experience several of your responses that tend to inform me that even if you had read all of my posts, either you did NOT understand half of their content or you are purposefully failing to take into account half of their content.

You seem to be wasting my time, your time and the time of anyone who may happen to be reading this interchange between us with your purported attempts to teach.

Want me to be blunt about it? Over-moderation is dumb, no forum worth posting on does it, and I often skim your posts for relevant material because I feel they tend to ramble on, sometimes incoherently, so forgive me for missing an important sentence or two every now and then.

Was that straight-forward enough for you?

Being blunt is fine, and you have a right to have your opinion.  From your prior posts, I had already had a pretty good idea about you position regarding moderation of the forum and the thread, but really neither of has said too much on this topic even though we have made a lot of posts about it in the last couple of days.  More or less, you have been suggesting that you are happy with the status quo level of moderation, and I had been suggesting that more moderation would likely weed out some of the extensive trolling to make the forum better.  But I believe this dialogue began with my comment that Blitz, as a moderator, admitted that he was posting merely to incite other posters - which irritated me, coming from a mod.

Regarding my prior posts:  I would expect that some of my posts have more value than others and some posts are better written than others (and possibly some are not very helpful or very well written), and people also have varying perceptions concerning what they perceive as valuable or helpful in a post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

It is remarkable how well FXI and XBT correlate recently.

[silverfuture]

If you think the most passionate supporters of bitcoin are doing so because of cultist behavior.. you are a basic bitch.

If you're going to go with the cult propaganda, at least use the one with the more attractive chick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I8mWG6HlmU

[Cassius]

The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha

Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators.    For the next 6 months BTC should outperform.

Intriguing. Elaborate, if you will?
I know that this is off-topic, or at least off the topic that has been discussed for the last few pages, but all the same.

[JayJuanGee]

+1 that judicious, discerning & productive moderation isn't easy or clear-cut at all, and that heavy moderation is digressive, censory & stupid.

I do NOT disagree with the above statement, and I believe the above statement is NOT inconsistent with anything that I said.

I can attest that Oct. is not the only person skimming some people's posts.. JJG's in particular, given the excessive wordiness often encountered, albeit admittedly made using excellently articulate language.

I doubt that anyone can read this whole thread with thoroughness, there are too many posts.  So likely many of us skim, and we will look at some posters more closely than others, or we may get caught by some ideas more than others.

 What's actually ridiculous, JJG, is for you to be repeatedly distraught that people "[..] definitely don't know enough about you to make such statements/claims..", while at the same time alleging that Octaft is disingenuous & imply that he could not possibly be 'coming from a place of higher knowledge..' when anyone of good cognizance who's been following his posting will definitely substantiate that he's one of the more erudite minds around here who don't get biased easily & are diligent in their intellectual approach.

I am NOT sure where how you are concluding that I am “distraught?”  I merely made a statement that a person cannot really know you from your posts.  I have made that same assertion in other contexts.  Octaft and others sometimes attempt to conclude too much from the posts of others, and I have experienced that. It does NOT make me distraught, but sometimes, I would like to point out when a conclusion is going too far and is NOT based on facts or actuality.

I did suggest that Octaft is being disingenuous during times when he is reaching conclusions that are NOT based on the record.  I did NOT suggest that he was NOT coming from a place of higher knowledge, but that it is insulting when he put on the hat as if he were suggesting that he is coming from a place of higher knowledge.  Really, it is NOT possible to put on such a hat, if a poster does NOT know enough of the relevant facts and to assume knowledge of facts that are NOT on the table.

And since we're on this topic, I'll add that it strongly appears to my perspective that these 'scandalized defensiveness' conversational tendencies and your apparent need to insert vulgar language here & there, are transparent symptoms of the insecurity you feel with some of the obsessive patterns you use when communicating, such as your characteristic capitalized 'NOT' inserted every few sentences or so ;p

Seems that the “NOT” and other all caps emphasis is stylistic, and the vulgar language from time to time may be stylistic or it may be that at that particular writing moment, that particular vulgar word seems to make my point the best (or at least better than other possible words).  I am NOT a poet, so I may get the vulgar word wrong, from time to time, and I am sure that if I were to go back to edit my fucking posts ("fucking" added for humor), those posts would suffer from considerable rewriting (and likely shortening).  NONETHELESS, the posts attempt to capture my sentiment of the moment, and they are likely longer and/or wordier than necessary… because frequently, I do NOT go back and re-read them before hitting “post.”

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday May 06

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-05-06, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2635 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 427 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/05 was fairly good (S = 0.0041, W = 0.716).  It was below but fairly close to the previously assumed trend, so it seems most reasonable to stick with it.   Fitting again a straight line to the last four data points, by weighted least squares, gives A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/02, A = 2746.70, B = -27.96.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.17 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.18 today (May/05), 6.16 yesterday, and 6.17, 6.08, 6.11, 6.22, 6.25, 6.05 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: SaturdaySunday 2014-05-04, 23:26 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday Monday 2014-05-05, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

The Method was just a tad too bullish:

Huobi's predicted price: 2676 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2656 CNY
Error: 20 CNY (~3.24 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 434 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 430 USD
Error: 3 USD
 
NOTE: "The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad." --Salvador Dalí

EDIT: May/04 was Sunday, May/05 is Monday.

[shmadz]

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.

[JayJuanGee]

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.

Thnx 

[PoolMinor]

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

Fanaticism != Cultism

Edit:
Until Bronco fans are grouped into the classification of a cult, I will stand by the above simple statement.

[adamstgBit]

still waiting for this "big drop" that everyones predicting wishing for

[kireinaha]

still waiting for this "big drop" that everyones predicting wishing for

Yup, any minute now, right guys?

[Davyd05]

Jay, my friend, you have an incredible knack for using a lot of words to say nothing.

+1 I had to ignore him for this.. not that anything he says or does particularly disturbs me.. but wall of text battles with trolls are just.. a big waste of time.



Mind you the increase of ignoring has risen steadily this week..exponentially..generally I take this as a reason to buy lol

[shmadz]

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

Fanaticism != Cultism

just as bitcoin is both a currency and a commodity, both a payment platform and a binding record of account,

bitcoin proponents are both fanatics and cultists, both bitcoin nutters as well as bitcoin savants.

 

[tupelo]

just as bitcoin is both a currency and a commodity, both a payment platform and a binding record of account,

bitcoin proponents are both fanatics and cultists, both bitcoin nutters as well as bitcoin savants.

 

golden!

[shmadz]

still waiting for this "big drop" that everyones predicting wishing for

Yup, any minute now, right guys?

I love that picture!

The bulls are waiting for it to go up, bears are waiting for it to go down.


The cat is just waiting for something to move so it can pounce.