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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26913802 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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philipma1957
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October 12, 2025, 02:25:53 AM

dips are coming back.

get ready for a buy.
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October 12, 2025, 02:53:00 AM
Last edit: October 12, 2025, 12:19:13 PM by BTCETFInvestor


I am not opposed to some paper bitcoin for either beginners and/or for those who have most of their investments in various kinds of products (such as retirement funds) that might not allow for self-custody.  Also, some institutions and/or governments might have difficulties self-custodying, so paper bitcoin might be mostly acceptable for them, even if they might have to figure out ways to attempt to transition into having some control and/or oversight over the ways that the coins are custodied - perhaps even trying to custody with custodians who engaging in some kinds of credible auditing (proof of reserves), and even having abilities to move coins between custodians could keep a decent number of the custodians honest (to the extent that we can have any confidence in quite a few aspect of our smoke and mirror status quo financial institutions and systems that seem to operate on spin, convolution and obscurity).
Jay - I am glad to learn you feel this way about spot Bitcoin ETFs!  Smiley

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There are needs to be practical without expecting that those third-party services and/or derivative products are the same as bitcoin.  We also should not presume that various third-party derivative products are not problematic in regards to several use cases that bring value to bitcoin, even if they serve some purposes of allowing for bitcoin price exposure.

I frequently suggest that newbies to bitcoin get started in whatever way that they can, and I don't even push the idea that they have to start out with self-custody, since I understand that in some regards, it can take a bit of time to get used to bitcoin, so in some regards, it may well be better to start out with investing in various derivative products and/or even buying bitcoin through an exchange while learning about bitcoin and self-custody... so it could take 3-6 months or even a year for some newbies to get used to aspects of bitcoin and to transition into self-custody.. so in that regard, I consider it better to have exposure to bitcoin rather than not having exposure, yet you BTCETFInvestor have made arguments that self-custody is inferior to buying those various bitcoin derivative products, which seems that you either don't understand bitcoin or you are trying to spread misinformation by wanting to promote derivative products as if they were superior, when they are not.

No, JJG - I've never said self-custody is inferior to buying spot Bitcoin ETFs. Owning BTC with self-custody is clearly the ultimate. I have only stated my personal desire is to invest in buying (and hodling) spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) which nicely tracks Bitcoin - - and by me investing in spot Bitcoin ETF I don't have to deal with the issues of self-custody because I trust Fidelity to handle being the custodian of the BTC to cover the Bitcoin it has sold in their spot Bitcoin ETF it offers clients.  I am a big proponent of Bitcoin, I just don't want to self-custody it so I have invested in spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC). Please don't hold that against me...  
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October 12, 2025, 03:40:46 AM
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I am not opposed to some paper bitcoin for either beginners and/or for those who have most of their investments in various kinds of products (such as retirement funds) that might not allow for self-custody.  Also, some institutions and/or governments might have difficulties self-custodying, so paper bitcoin might be mostly acceptable for them, even if they might have to figure out ways to attempt to transition into having some control and/or oversight over the ways that the coins are custodied - perhaps even trying to custody with custodians who engaging in some kinds of credible auditing (proof of reserves), and even having abilities to move coins between custodians could keep a decent number of the custodians honest (to the extent that we can have any confidence in quite a few aspect of our smoke and mirror status quo financial institutions and systems that seem to operate on spin, convolution and obscurity).
Jay - I am glad to learn you feel this way about spot Bitcoin ETFs!  Smiley

Quote
There are needs to be practical without expecting that those third-party services and/or derivative products are the same as bitcoin.  We also should not presume that various third-party derivative products are not problematic in regards to several use cases that bring value to bitcoin, even if they serve some purposes of allowing for bitcoin price exposure.

I frequently suggest that newbies to bitcoin get started in whatever way that they can, and I don't even push the idea that they have to start out with self-custody, since I understand that in some regards, it can take a bit of time to get used to bitcoin, so in some regards, it may well be better to start out with investing in various derivative products and/or even buying bitcoin through an exchange while learning about bitcoin and self-custody... so it could take 3-6 months or even a year for some newbies to get used to aspects of bitcoin and to transition into self-custody.. so in that regard, I consider it better to have exposure to bitcoin rather than not having exposure, yet you BTCETFInvestor have made arguments that self-custody is inferior to buying those various bitcoin derivative products, which seems that you either don't understand bitcoin or you are trying to spread misinformation by wanting to promote derivative products as if they were superior, when they are not.

No sir, Jay - I've never said self-custody is inferior to buying spot Bitcoin ETFs. I have only stated my personal desire is to invest in buying (and hodling) spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) which nicely tracks BTC - - and by me investing in spot Bitcoin ETF I don't have to deal with the issues of self-custody because I trust Fidelity to handle being the custodian of the BTC to cover the Bitcoin it has sold in spot Bitcoin ETFs.    

If your horizon is generational wealth, so in 100years you're only guaranteed to loose 25% of you corn, that's the best case scenario if Fidelity and USA holds up that long. All because you didn't want to learn how to self custody, by buying a $100 calculator and storing 24 words somewhere? To each his own, i guess.
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October 12, 2025, 04:47:26 AM

dips are coming back.

get ready for a buy.

How low?

Mine are preset, so I don't see any interest in making any adjustments.. currently
 $108.5k-ish.
$105k-ish
$101.5k-ish,
$98k-ish

and then every $3k increments down to $74k and then every $2.5k after that.

I have a hard time imagining lower than $100k unless it was merely a quick spike down... but yeah, we know that sometimes extremes play out.

I prefer that we go up from here.. since it is likely that most of the low hanging fruit - in regards to the leveraged longs have been taken out.

Bears cannot resist, though.  They push as low as they can get the price to go as low as they can get it to go and for long as they can keep it there.. so that would end up shaking out a few more of the weak hands.
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October 12, 2025, 10:03:01 AM

Shorts are pilling up as expected… maybe it’s time they also get a taste of some real  liquidations
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 12, 2025, 11:25:02 AM
Last edit: October 12, 2025, 11:43:11 AM by vapourminer
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You likely did not feel stress free with your bitcoin in your first whole cycle buying bitcoin, even though we came to find  out that we could have invested a whole cycle in the past and then we could stop investing.  Now days, there are likely needs for most folks to invest into bitcoin 2-3 cycles or even more to really get to a point in which their bitcoin investment might start to feel less stressful, and not even that is guaranteed.

thats true. my 1st crash (~70%) was like, holy shit wtf haha does it do this all the time?

answer: yes

i guess you literally just get used to it?

for a long time i was playing with "house money" i guess youd say (ie front loaded via mining) so by the time btc was getting more notice (like around 2013 maybe?) and i had seen the crazy volatility before my btc stacks fiat value was really noticeable.







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Merited by LoyceV (6), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

As a longterm holder who has no idea how margins and leverages etc. work, this small correction felt like any other to me. But the more I check crypto related forums and groups the more I realize how big this seems to be. I’ve seen posts now about suicides and 100% liquidations etc. it’s crazy. To me this felt like a small hiccup in comparison to the Covid, mtgox or FTX crashes. In moments like this I’m happy that I just hold and have no understanding of leverage and all that stuff.

I’ve taken some profits at 125k but not as much as planned. The plan was to sell 10% of my Btc in this bull market and sell 1% at each 10k+ level eg. 120k = 1% - 130k = 1% etc. was only able to sell 0.6% at 120k levels.

Mainly because I’m worried about Binance freezing my account if I sent too much Bitcoin at once there. So I send always 10% of what I want to sell in total. How common is the account freezing and proof of funds? My Binance account is 4-5 years old and is kyced. My Bitcoins were bought in 2013 from Mtgox mostly. And some from Bitstamp. I’ve used that Binance account for a lot of sells and trades. I wish to sell large amounts at once instead of small fractions.
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October 12, 2025, 12:59:07 PM

As a longterm holder who has no idea how margins and leverages etc. work, this small correction felt like any other to me. But the more I check crypto related forums and groups the more I realize how big this seems to be. I’ve seen posts now about suicides and 100% liquidations etc. it’s crazy. To me this felt like a small hiccup in comparison to the Covid, mtgox or FTX crashes. In moments like this I’m happy that I just hold and have no understanding of leverage and all that stuff.

I’ve taken some profits at 125k but not as much as planned. The plan was to sell 10% of my Btc in this bull market and sell 1% at each 10k+ level eg. 120k = 1% - 130k = 1% etc. was only able to sell 0.6% at 120k levels.

Mainly because I’m worried about Binance freezing my account if I sent too much Bitcoin at once there. So I send always 10% of what I want to sell in total. How common is the account freezing and proof of funds? My Binance account is 4-5 years old and is kyced. My Bitcoins were bought in 2013 from Mtgox mostly. And some from Bitstamp. I’ve used that Binance account for a lot of sells and trades. I wish to sell large amounts at once instead of small fractions.

Not key not your coin! People are losing thousands of dollars to this mother fucking exchanges.

Holding in your own wallet is the key!
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