Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Wen $ forty thousand for bitcoin? I want to buy some.

2023 if i recall

[philipma1957]

There may be a few stoners here, yes, but there are not very many brain dead people on this thread for what it's worth.  

I would be willing to bet that the overall intelligence here is down and to the right on the famous bell curve.

And it's not just people here. Folks like Carl Sagan (billions and billions), Francis Crick (discovered the DNA double helix), Steve Jobs (changed society arguably more than almost any other human, for better and for worse)...  The list goes on.

I humbly suggest you might update your suppositions made around those who enjoy cannabis on one level or another.

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.

I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

Sure.. surgeons, truck drivers, heavy machinery operators, cops.  There's a lot of people that should not be doing their job under the influence of it, that's for sure.

There are also people who use it to microdose. THC is dopaminergic and people who have need for a pharmaceutical like welbutrin, for example, may be able to manage tiny doses of THC to achieve something similar.  And it's interesting if you think about it. If someone accidentally took too much welbutrin, you would need to get them to a hospital quickly. But if somebody took a little bit too much THC, you're just going to need to order a pizza.

But haven't we had this conversation already?

@cAPSLOCK - I get a healthy dose of natural dopamine by accomplishing goals. For me accomplishing goals triggers a distinct dopamine release - and that 'brain reward' enhances my motivation to make further accomplishments. Even small accomplishments gives dopamine rewards - big accomplishments provides an extra longer lasting reward, but each dopamine release is a wonderful feeling. Being a Type A Alpha I do not need chemical THC for that feeling - it comes about naturally for me.  

I would agree that achievement and exercise are two of the most wonderful ways to create more dopamine.   Unfortunately for us, scrolling out our phones seems to be an intensely dopaminergic activity as well.

But there are ways that are possible to modulate your dopamine one way or another with fairly small amount of risk when it comes to using a substance, for example.

Coffee is an extremely dopaminergic drug... or caffeine, I should say. I roast my own beans. I put a lot of work into my coffee and I do enjoy two or three cups in a day. Maybe a little more than I ought to drink.  But for now, I'm good with it. I got myself a fabulous coffee machine that can make a single cup as easily as a pot.

But coffee would be a good example of a very socially acceptable dopamineergic drug. It's often supplied by the office place or it was back when we worked together in person...

That's fine but why most modern men prefer to open porn websites and fap for dopamine? Even those who have a wife...

as a guy married for forty one years women are capable of intense long lasting orgasams.

no man can have a 10 minute or 15 minute orgasm much shorter and less intense for men.

so much like corn syrup men need many orgasams each week .

women do not as many
 if when they have them they have the equivalent of a feast or a seven course meal.

think about it when you are a guy and say 18 every day is fairly standard  and many times twice a day.

 none of which last five minutes. what a mess if they did last five minutes

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Wen $ forty thousand for bitcoin? I want to buy some.

have fun staying poor.

Hopefully, for your own good, you have been buying since your forum registration date. You have been registered for more than 2 cycle, which should have had been enough time to have had accumulated a decent amount of BTC, even though I will admit that front loading and even emphasizing buying at various lower price periods would have had brought your average cost per BTC down and your number of coins up... Yet many guys cannot necessarily front load, so they are really left with DCA likely being the better of ongoing BTC accumulation strategies..

Many time, especially with something like bitcoin, instead of being greedy, it is better to be persistent and consistent.. and just keep grinding away at ongoing bitcoin accumulation within your cashflow capacities and at any price until really making progress in such a way that you start to become satisfied that your bitcoin stack is getting close to being enough..

I will admit that the accumulation amounts and the accumulation times have gotten quite larger and longer with the passage of time, that is part of the reason that that the ole maxim regarding time in the market being better than timing the market has continued to work out well for guys and getting too greedy can become problematic and lead to problematic behaviors (including loss of focus).   Why should any guy who had started accumulating regularly in 2017 be upset because his BTC holdings have been ranging between only 5x to 15x in profits in the past year and a half or so rather than some imaginary higher amounts that he speculates that he "could have had."

It seems to me that building wealth tends to take time, and sure we might get lucky once in a while, yet we also likely get lucky by persistently accumulating bitcoin too, rather than fucking around for prices that are not likely to happen, merely because a bunch of other bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpers and/or fence sitters are making those kinds of wishful predictions/projections.

Wen $ forty thousand for bitcoin? I want to buy some.

Why not buy it now at a discount? Not good to wait for a major drop in price to make a serious purchase. Just buy daily/weekly/monthly as it goes down. 40k has been speculated here and there, but not nearly as much as 50k or 55k. You may not see the bottom you're looking for.
Good luck!

Sure. Each of those lower price ranges is possible, the lower the price range, the lower the odds that such prices will happen.

It is also possible that below $70k will never, ever, ever, be seen again.

By the way, if I were a betting man (not saying either way), then I would suggest that the odds for below $69k at some point is currently greater than 50% - yet the mere fact that there exist greater than 50% odds, that does not mean that there is any need to wait for such prices that might or might not happen, especially for anyone who might be considering himself as not having enough coins yet.

So then your own question might either relate to whether you have enough coins yet or another question might be whether you are feeling lucky, punk?

If you think about the matter and calculate that you don't have enough coin, then the best guarantee to accumulate more coins is to buy some at various points along the way - perhaps even buying persistently, consistently, regularly, ongoingly and maybe even aggressively. 

From the perspective of this here cat, waiting tends to be a quite inferior approach, especially for those who seriously who want to accumulate more coins and they understand (more or less) what bitcoin is. 

An even worse approach for wanting to get more coin would be to sell some or all of your coins, which some guy do employ such strategy - yet many (perhaps an overwhelming majority?) of them end up with way fewer coins than they would have had if they had just stuck with strategies that emphasis ongoing accumulation through buying and holding.. especially if we are assessing BTC portfolio performance over a couple of cycle or more.

But, hey, each guy has his approach to BTC, his opinions and even his perception in regards to what are the preferred actions to reach his desired outcomes.

[edited out]

If you understand this, I'll be expecting and waiting on your apology!  Are you the stand-up guy I think you are?

I am on the interwebs.

My feewings have been hurted.

I want someone to care about me and my feewings.

 

Wen $ forty thousand for bitcoin? I want to buy some.

2023 if i recall

Exactamente.

Been there.  Done that.

There was a dip into the upper $40ks in July/August 2024.. and the odds seem pretty low that we would be revisiting those numbers, absent some temporary weird-ass downity spike similar to the March 2020 happenings..   Never say never, but it does not seem a good practice to be putting too much money (and psychology) on events that have quite low chances of playing out in the real world.

[Hueristic]

Wen $ forty thousand for bitcoin? I want to buy some.

have fun staying poor.

"Too late, too late", will be the cry, when the man with the bargains has passed you by.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qnLpJd-u8L0

https://youtu.be/DeztSCCX6VY



*this really might be my all time favorite movie.

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.

And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER!  

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

South Carolians
@Hueristic - Thank you for your service!  

How do you feel about the likelihood of large number (many millions) of Cubans coming from the island nation to southern Florida if/when Cuba is taken over by the U.S.?  

you sound like a racist to the max.

btw if usa and cuba ever settle their differences i am looking forward to spending time in cuba.


i would venture to say cuba is nicer than florida in quite a few ways.

Phil - Your stupid comment comes from a ridiculous interpretation!  If I had instead said; "large number (many millions) of South Carolinians" - would that have been racist? The people are expected to be coming from Cuba - they are identified as Cubans, you dumbass!   Much like people from New Jersey are identified as New Jerseyans!

If you understand this, I'll be expecting and waiting on your apology!  Are you the stand-up guy I think you are?

please your intentions may have been innocent but they sounded racist.

I have 5 or 6 close Cuban friends that fled from Cuba. I also have a long dead uncle that owned a hotel in Cuba. It was a very nice place to live in with really good foods and people.

The vast majority of the people have hispanic roots. (which I kind of have but indirectly)

If Israel closed up shop and ran to Brooklyn I would not say how would you like millions of
Israelis living in NYC.

and if I did I would be making antisemite comments by saying it.

Is Ghana closed up shop and ran to the Bronx and I said how would you like millions of Ghanaians in NYC I would be anti black.

Why is this?

Cuba   80% hispanic
Israel  80% Jewish
Ghana 80% black.

I did not call you a racist I said what you said sounded racist.


Learn to distinguish between the next 2 sentences

"you are a fucking asshole"   not what I said

"what you said sound like shit"      basically what I said.

one is said with anger  the first one (not what I said)

the other one is said with hopefulness that you understand me and better yourself for your own sake.

which in turn would be helpful to the rest of us.

[El duderino_]

Let the FUD times roll…

Fun fact. Almost exactly 4 years ago on March 22-29 of 2022, Bitcoin printed 8 straight daily green candles after falling 40% from it’s all time high reached just months earlier. Over the next 80 days the Bitcoin price fell victim to another 60% dip. History may not repeat itself, but I’m waiting and listening for the rhyme.

History can rhyme,
though if it penned a haiku-
poignancy would rule.  

History does know
I’m reading whiteout a clue…
Still merit it though

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

[BTCETFInvestor]

[edited out]

@cAPSLOCK - If it's allowed by state law, then those people who are attracted to mind-altering chemicals that interact with their brain's central nervous system I guess will want to use it.  That's not for me!

I personally prefer not smelling it because i think it stinks. And, I prefer not being around people, or dealing with people, that use it because they act slow or overly moody, one way or another that can change in an instant.
I don't like the idea of drivers, especially commercial 18-wheeler drivers, using it because it impairs their cognitive function; attention span and the ability to perform complex tasks, like driving a truck weighing 80,000lbs while under the influence. I think commercial truck drivers are actually strictly prohibited from using marijuana, regardless of whether it is legal for recreational or medical use in their home state. I believe there is good reason for that - wonder why!  Marijuana is still prohibited for recreational use in 26 states, and it remains federally illegal in the United States.  Maybe some people feel they need it, but I haven't needed it...  

My opinion on the subject is I smoked like a fiend when I was younger but after The Marines when I got high I either got stupid rather than philosophical like I used to or I'd get paranoid so I don't smoke anymore. But I believe everyone has the right to and just because its not my thing anymore doesnt mean it's not good for others as it was for me when younger.

And I have never met a mean pothead in my entire life, NEVER!  

But I have met boatloads of Mean asshole Drunks.

I could tell you a great story about using it for pain relief but I don't have the time to type a JJG post and wouldn't want to bore anyone.

South Carolians
@Hueristic - Thank you for your service!  

How do you feel about the likelihood of large number (many millions) of Cubans coming from the island nation to southern Florida if/when Cuba is taken over by the U.S.?  

you sound like a racist to the max.

btw if usa and cuba ever settle their differences i am looking forward to spending time in cuba.


i would venture to say cuba is nicer than florida in quite a few ways.

Phil - Your stupid comment comes from a ridiculous interpretation!  If I had instead said; "large number (many millions) of South Carolinians" - would that have been racist? The people are expected to be coming from Cuba - they are identified as Cubans, you dumbass!   Much like people from New Jersey are identified as New Jerseyans!

If you understand this, I'll be expecting and waiting on your apology!  Are you the stand-up guy I think you are?

please your intentions may have been innocent but they sounded racist.

I have 5 or 6 close Cuban friends that fled from Cuba. I also have a long dead uncle that owned a hotel in Cuba. It was a very nice place to live in with really good foods and people.

The vast majority of the people have hispanic roots. (which I kind of have but indirectly)

If Israel closed up shop and ran to Brooklyn I would not say how would you like millions of
Israelis living in NYC.

and if I did I would be making antisemite comments by saying it.

Is Ghana closed up shop and ran to the Bronx and I said how would you like millions of Ghanaians in NYC I would be anti black.

Why is this?

Cuba   80% hispanic
Israel  80% Jewish
Ghana 80% black.

I did not call you a racist I said what you said sounded racist.


Learn to distinguish between the next 2 sentences

"you are a fucking asshole"   not what I said

"what you said sound like shit"      basically what I said.

one is said with anger  the first one (not what I said)

the other one is said with hopefulness that you understand me and better yourself for your own sake.

which in turn would be helpful to the rest of us.

Well Phil - You said; "you sound like a racist to the max." You did not say, what you said liked racist.

But instead of going back 'n forth, we'll leave it alone. I'm okay with you - I hope you're okay with me...  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

*this really might be my all time favorite movie.

You might be in good company  
I was thinking of any movie i liked better, for about five minutes.
"Snatch" came to my mind as the only movie i consider almost on en par.
So, Guy Ritchie should undoubtedly be my all-time-favorite director, then.

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

Still, recovery moves are initially stronger, so there are buyers. It seems likely that the cycle low will be higher than one might expect on historical TA projections.
I always avoid those fibonacci key levels, because i can't remember all the details and would use them wrong, as would be the results.
Anyway, do they still work quite reliably on BTC charts?
I suggest you might have a more complete view on this, so i thought it couldn't hurt to ask.

[zeroknowledgeproofs]

crazy news today as well for Hyperliquid ...prob why its outperforming most stuff

https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2034260987197444255?s=46

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Let the FUD times roll…

Fun fact. Almost exactly 4 years ago on March 22-29 of 2022, Bitcoin printed 8 straight daily green candles after falling 40% from it’s all time high reached just months earlier. Over the next 80 days the Bitcoin price fell victim to another 60% dip. History may not repeat itself, but I’m waiting and listening for the rhyme.

History can rhyme,
though if it penned a haiku-
poignancy would rule.  

History does know
I’m reading whiteout a clue…
Still merit it though

I almost added "The same way I would feel about large number (many millions) of Belgians to give you a laugh here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66520624#msg66520624

[OgNasty]

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

Still, recovery moves are initially stronger, so there are buyers. It seems likely that the cycle low will be higher than one might expect on historical TA projections.
I always avoid those fibonacci key levels, because i can't remember all the details and would use them wrong, as would be the results.
Anyway, do they still work quite reliably on BTC charts?
I suggest you might have a more complete view on this, so i thought it couldn't hurt to ask.

I never cared for arbitrary % movements like the Fibonacci sequence uses. I always look at previous highs/lows that break prior trends as my basis for resistance/support. For example, right now when I look at a 90-day chart I see a lot of resistance around $97K and a lot of support at $59K. Any movement between those two levels are just traders having fun.

You can also shrink the chart to a 30 day chart for more active traders. That would place resistance at $75K and support around $63K. For the day to day traders in here with a short term view, those are the levels I would be watching.

Zoom out to a four year cycle and you get $16K and $126K… Add in supply and demand changes for kicks and you get a cycle low of $32K and a high of $250K. Add in reduced volatility for options and I think a cycle low of $48K later this year and a high of $185K in the summer of 2029 are likely targets (you could also factor in inflation and raise them a bit), but I of course make my personal trades by the date, not the price. This is obviously me just talking out of my ass, but we’ll see how accurate it is in a few years. I mean, it worked for Jim Carey.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Kraken has frozen its IPO. I guess they felt that trying to go public right now would be a mistake. I agree. I also saw that Metaplanet is moving around thousands of BTC… We are still very much in the deleveraging phase of this cycle and it seems pretty obvious. STRC hasn’t gotten back to $1 from Saylor’s last buy… Pain ahead.

Still, recovery moves are initially stronger, so there are buyers. It seems likely that the cycle low will be higher than one might expect on historical TA projections.
I always avoid those fibonacci key levels, because i can't remember all the details and would use them wrong, as would be the results.
Anyway, do they still work quite reliably on BTC charts?
I suggest you might have a more complete view on this, so i thought it couldn't hurt to ask.

I never cared for arbitrary % movements like the Fibonacci sequence uses. I always look at previous highs/lows that break prior trends as my basis for resistance/support. For example, right now when I look at a 90-day chart I see a lot of resistance around $97K and a lot of support at $59K. Any movement between those two levels are just traders having fun.

You can also shrink the chart to a 30 day chart for more active traders. That would place resistance at $75K and support around $63K. For the day to day traders in here with a short term view, those are the levels I would be watching.

Zoom out to a four year cycle and you get $16K and $126K… Add in supply and demand changes for kicks and you get a cycle low of $32K and a high of $250K. Add in reduced volatility for options and I think a cycle low of $48K later this year and a high of $185K in the summer of 2029 are likely targets (you could also factor in inflation and raise them a bit), but I of course make my personal trades by the date, not the price. This is obviously me just talking out of my ass, but we’ll see how accurate it is in a few years. I mean, it worked for Jim Carey.

you were funny so I tossed a merit here.

I actually smiled a bit.