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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26949352 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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Today at 01:37:08 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), AlcoHoDL (1)

[edited out]
It's most certainly not the case.
That said, I consider all declarations on how one or another asset class or a stock is currently "winning" as being false or very myopic.

We don't know much, especially about the future (to paraphrase Yogi Berra) .
I guess that if we had something like the "Foundation"'s Phychohistory, then we might have been able to make such predictions, but nothing like this has been developed yet.

Or, perhaps:
"The future ain’t what it used to be." (also per Yogi Berra).
I would be certainly hope that it is not, though.

For my pondering over the status of my bet that is set to end in less than a week (as I type this post), I was using another Yogi Berra related to: "it's not over until it is over,"  - even though in reality time is running out.

Watching the Yankees on Netflix.
At JJG at a minimum I will continue the stacking for at least 10 months via mining.

So 1.6+0.4= 2.0 coins.
If price goes up to 222 I would ladder sell 0.2 and on Jan 1 I would be

2-.2= 1.8 only if we reach 222k price.
If we never reach 127-222k

No sales at all so  2.0btc and knowing  me some dip buy. So 2.22 btc unlikely could my number

My own expectation of selling on the way up is that my BTC stash would shrink, so I sell without having any expectation of increasing my BTC holdings - even though probably the various ups and downs through the years has resulted in slightly more bitcoin, but amount that are not greater oni any kind of meaningful way.

For example, if I had ONLY been employing price-based sustainable withdrawal with buy backs based on dips, then maybe by time we return to $126k, I might have a couple of percent more BTC,yet only because the price had gone up and down several times over the period of time that we were correcting... which I think that the same is true with $69k.  It took a bit more than 2 years to get back to $69k, so maybe my BTC stash was up 4% at most..  

Now if I were to add time based sustainable withdrawal into the mix, then that would end up flatting out any BTC stash increase, so perhaps taking  away any stash increase, and I expect with the passage of time, the  BTC stash should start to shrink.. .. but yeah, if the price continues to go up, the value of the BTC in terms of dollar, would likely be ongoingly going up, so even if we might imagine a scenario in which I were to have had ended up selling 10% of my BTC over the period of 2021 to early 2024  (when we returned to  $69k and made new ATHs, we might even consider that the BTC price had previously been maxed out around $20k (in 2017), but then in 2025/2026 bitcoin's floor moved up into the $50ks.. and surely if we measure the value of the BTC from the 200-WMA, we can see that bitcoin's floor moved from up from $4k in mid-2019, to $22k in mid-2022, to $59k right now, so even if I might have had ended up selling 10% of my bitcoin stash (or even if I ended up selling 20% of my BTC stash), the overall bitcoin holding largely had appreciated by nearly 15x during that period of time.. even if some of us are concerned that BTC prices had not gone up enough, it still seems that its floor (approximated by the 200-WMA) had ended up going up from $4k to $60k in the past nearly 7 years (those 200-WMA values as compared with BTC spot prices can be reviewed on the sustainable withdrawal website).    

Many of us spend a lot of time proclaiming how bored we are with bitcoin price dynamic, but it really does seem to be holding up quite well when looking at it over a cycle or two.. and even right now the price history continues to support the case that the BTC price is holding up quite well (in the whole scheme of things)... and personally, I am still unsure if the bottom is in, since I personally feel that I would need to witness the BTC price spend some time (around a week might be enough?) supra $100k before I might start to be willing to enter into bets with me proclaiming that "the bottom is in."
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Today at 01:56:59 AM

hey guys this F.U.D. is for you all

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-prepared-unleash-hell-iran-211827226.html

"Trump prepared to 'unleash hell' if Iran doesn't make deal, White House warns"



When does he stop?
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Today at 03:06:55 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), psycodad (1)

hey guys this F.U.D. is for you all

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-prepared-unleash-hell-iran-211827226.html

"Trump prepared to 'unleash hell' if Iran doesn't make deal, White House warns"



When does he stop?

My bigger question is why are we even doing it?

One sub question is why has Scott Bessent been in front of so many microphones concerning this?

This is absolutely forcing the reset of the world order and accelerating the demise of fiat.

I believe we are going to see the bond market implode soon.  So yield is going to skyrocket and interest rates are going to be forced down, which means more borrowing, which means more money created by banksbout of thin air.  A song that's been playing on a loop for 50 years.  But there's not that much time left on the juke box I'm afraid.  And the whole thing comes tumbling down. But this time, not only does the bond market implode, but the stock market is going to go with it, popping the ridiculous AI bubble.

I am starting to believe that it is less than crazy to think that one reason we are doing this at all is to lay the groundwork for the change that they want to make.  The revival of the US dollar into the digital realm and one last hurrah for money out of thin air.

It's getting gross. There's countries that have no more fuel.  People have no idea the depth to which this is going to go, even if they stopped it right this very moment.  Iran has been waiting for this and they're playing their part perfectly. They look strong.

The suffering is going to be more concentrated in the eastern hemisphere, including Europe and much of Asia.  The western hemisphere is going to suffer, too, but we have plenty of oil. We're just going to need to start pumping it out of the ground again.

But the thing that really worries me is the US doesn't actually make anything anymore.  People sit behind computers and mash keys. And AI is going to replace 80% of that most likely.

The whole thing is a house of cards. We've known it for a long time, but I don't think very many people at all are aware of the hardship that lies ahead for the entire world at this point.

And then there are the paths forward.

1. The US foolishly decides to put boots on the ground as if we cannot remember what happened in Iwo Jima when we did the same thing for a small island.

2. We stop this ASAP and somehow reign  in Israel. I think this is least likely.

3a. Some idiot sets off a nuclear weapon.

3b. One side decides to unveil a weapon that has not been seen on the battlefield yet.  This is actually one of the higher possibilities in my opinion.  It could actually play out sort of like the nuclear bombs set off in Japan.

Or maybe I'm just a negative, crazy man that is wrong wrong wrong. That would be the very best of all, honestly.

Anyway, as an American, I do not feel proud of my country in this, though I still want to believe there are some things in the situation room that if we knew would explain why we've put ourselves in this incredibly ridiculous position.  And I am personally sorry that we've dragged the whole rest of the fucking world into it.

And oh yeah, it may not happen at first. In fact, at first, it may drop with the rest of it all but in the end  Bitcoin is going to absolutely rock when this happens.
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Today at 03:54:51 AM

God bless us all as we will need those blessings.

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Today at 04:57:44 AM
Merited by OgNasty (1), cAPSLOCK (1)

Re. buying a car with BTC.

YOLO supporters will disagree, but buying a car with BTC makes sense only if the BTC used is a tiny percentage of your total BTC stash, like 5% or less, and I'm being generous. Spending something like half of your stash to buy a ton of metal on wheels is a total waste of BTC and a certain way to lose your sanity when BTC moons.
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Today at 07:49:02 AM

Re. buying a car with BTC.

YOLO supporters will disagree, but buying a car with BTC makes sense only if the BTC used is a tiny percentage of your total BTC stash, like 5% or less, and I'm being generous. Spending something like half of your stash to buy a ton of metal on wheels is a total waste of BTC and a certain way to lose your sanity when BTC moons.

5% actually is a lot imo to spend on a vehicle...
Also depends a bit if its only a luxury expensive one or a really necessarily one...
But still 5% is a lot for a car in terms of BTC holdings
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Today at 10:30:00 AM

Re. buying a car with BTC.

YOLO supporters will disagree, but buying a car with BTC makes sense only if the BTC used is a tiny percentage of your total BTC stash, like 5% or less, and I'm being generous. Spending something like half of your stash to buy a ton of metal on wheels is a total waste of BTC and a certain way to lose your sanity when BTC moons.

5% actually is a lot imo to spend on a vehicle...
Also depends a bit if its only a luxury expensive one or a really necessarily one...
But still 5% is a lot for a car in terms of BTC holdings

I would rather buy a crappy fiat with my fiat. Grin

I used to think I wanted to buy a lambo with my BTC but now... Why would I buy something that expensive only to have it lose a large percentage of it's value year after year?
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Today at 10:45:19 AM

As a dignified WO Enjoyer

I am glad that prices are hovering around 60-70 which means market is now stable for over few weeks?

the storm passed
last cloud drained
we BTCsatBTC back for the new sunrise

#haiku

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Today at 12:01:47 PM

R.I.P.

Chip Taylor

Writer of "Wild Thing"
Writer of "Angel of the morning"

Brother  of Jon Voight

Uncle of Angellina Jolie


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_Taylor
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