Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

I was just playing along  

For the record, I selected $120K. That turned out to be the right answer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

1. We had an ATH before the halving in 2024- Mar 25 vs halving on April 19, 2024.
2. This trend should accelerate, imho, as people would have an earlier pricing in.

I also mentioned this possibility of acceleration a while back.

Maybe we are not witnessing cycle extension but cycle acceleration or shortening?

If we take October 6 of 2025 as the peak with 124k, we went down 50% already by hitting 62k as a close using Chart from Coingecko. That's 4 months.
In the previous one November 8 of 2021 as the peak with $67k, a 50% reduction of price was achieved in May of 2022 so 6 months after. But again while cycle power is diminishing, we can't compare directly and simply because each cycle had its own fuckery. Last cycle was FTX, LUNA, lending platforms and other shit.

In the previous cycle, using the data from the same source to be consistent, we've seen a bottom of $16k on daily close down from that $67k so around a 76% reduction. There is also somewhat a diminishing percentage in reduction. So here are the scenarios using 124k a the peak:
50% down would be $62k.
60% down would be $49600.
70% down would be $37200.
76% down would be $29760.
80% down would be $24800.

You corrected me then or at another time that a bottom of $50k would actually not be good. But other than that we agree, acceleration is quite possible. In the previous cycle the bottom was 12 months after in November 2022.

[hypebrother]

1. We had an ATH before the halving in 2024- Mar 25 vs halving on April 19, 2024.
2. This trend should accelerate, imho, as people would have an earlier pricing in.

I also mentioned this possibility of acceleration a while back.

Maybe we are not witnessing cycle extension but cycle acceleration or shortening?

If we take October 6 of 2025 as the peak with 124k, we went down 50% already by hitting 62k as a close using Chart from Coingecko. That's 4 months.
In the previous one November 8 of 2021 as the peak with $67k, a 50% reduction of price was achieved in May of 2022 so 6 months after. But again while cycle power is diminishing, we can't compare directly and simply because each cycle had its own fuckery. Last cycle was FTX, LUNA, lending platforms and other shit.

In the previous cycle, using the data from the same source to be consistent, we've seen a bottom of $16k on daily close down from that $67k so around a 76% reduction. There is also somewhat a diminishing percentage in reduction. So here are the scenarios using 124k a the peak:
50% down would be $62k.
60% down would be $49600.
70% down would be $37200.
76% down would be $29760.
80% down would be $24800.

You corrected me then or at another time that a bottom of $50k would actually not be good. But other than that we agree, acceleration is quite possible. In the previous cycle the bottom was 12 months after in November 2022.

How did i verify this?

By renting a colab instance (flexible) with google work email. I just hyped the shit out of a rtx 6000 (Blackwell), quantum computing threatening a 51% attack on cryptographically secure networks my ass.

Anyhoo,

Please visit my profile for more details..

of me..

Edit: The plan began with a simple task of making a website to showcase my books collection, which led me to aws sagemaker (with 200$ free real credits) + bonus for real-world-applicable immediately needed apps which can be made easily with Replit (they have a buildathon (phase 2 - no use registering)) now and it works just like you make art with Gemini pro, of which I am not sure how the end results stats are.

I then proceeded to colab.

Replit's Agent 4 is perfect for Webapps, android and ios apps? I am not sure. I never published any.

so, back to my story..then i proceeded to make a company with proper legal terms.

I lied about SARA Inc being incorporated, legally.

It isn't.

My corporation will be called Ceraph Corp

and something about philipma1957.

Just one line: "A storm that knows compassion!"

[BitHodlers]

How did i verify this?

By renting a colab instance (flexible) with google work email. I just hyped the shit out of a rtx 6000 (Blackwell), quantum computing threatening a 51% attack on cryptographically secure networks my ass.

Anyhoo,

Please visit my profile for more details..

of me..

Did you get some bad street drugs? What are you on about?

[hypebrother]

How did i verify this?

By renting a colab instance (flexible) with google work email. I just hyped the shit out of a rtx 6000 (Blackwell), quantum computing threatening a 51% attack on cryptographically secure networks my ass.

Anyhoo,

Please visit my profile for more details..

of me..

Did you get some bad street drugs? What are you on about?

Ceraph Corp

Edit: I am now aware that .ai domains are being sold by cloudflare, I have none

proof:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hypebrother]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I told you, I told you BTC-stamp is a real exchange.

[JayJuanGee]

x

The content of the tweet makes little sense to me, including around a 4.5x increase in  price from the current price within the next 2-ish years..

I would speculate that if there were any level of confidence that the BTC price would go up (even double from here) within around 2 years, then the rational action would be to buy at any price... so I suppose that those who are waiting for a lower entry points are not having any confidence in the upside scenario and perhaps being greedy in their perspective, if they are considering something like $35k to be possibly (or good odds of being) in the mix.

[hypebrother]

x

The content of the tweet makes little sense to me, including around a 4.5x increase in  price from the current price within the next 2-ish years..

I would speculate that if there were any level of confidence that the BTC price would go up (even double from here) within around 2 years, then the rational action would be to buy at any price... so I suppose who are waiting for a lower entry point are not having any confidence in the upside.. perhaps being greedy, if they are considering something like $35k in the mix.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

And or else, in the worst case, the price stabilizes at 100k and
we will not see a new high... And then go to zero, as many experts say,
this is just another bubble and bitcoin died hahahaha....

"Many" is a very relative subject.
How many of all "experts" say so?
1%, maybe 3% ?
That's not much, or is it?

 So, I could have written 'some'' and or edited for 'some', but no, it's a lot of them,
but I mean these 'stock market experts' who recommend 'portfolios' to 'bank clients'
and earn commissions for it...

 I'll leave a recurring example that I see in popular media,
maybe you agree, or not, no problem.

 You know these popular news programs, that when they talk about the economy,
they call that expert sponsored by the sponsor of the program...
 And when the presenter calls the specialist...:

-Now we are going to talk about economics with economist 'John',
and he will talk about the market and investment tips.
John:
-The market is falling but it is rising, and what stood out was
the 'I don't know that', and 'I don't know what fell a lot', and 'I don't know that'
it was stable...
 It's a good investment option at the moment would be X and Y for the long term,
because blablablahhh...
 Presenter:
 -And the bitcoin that is so often said to be the currency of the future,
would it be a good time to invest now and or wait a little longer?
   John:
 -Yes, bitcoin is a well-known currency on the internet, but the general population
is unaware of it and does not understand how it works, and they end up
falling into scams and or something like that, but there are uses for it and it
has a security that to this day has not been broken, and it all depends on the user,
its security, if the person is lay, he can end up losing,.. or being hacked,...
 many prefer to leave this part of the security in the hands of third parties...
  But the asset itself is not recommended for large investments by people
with little monetary power, yes some large banks and some countries have it
in their reserves, but because it is a very volatile asset, it is not recommended
to have more than '3% in your portfolio', as it can fall exponentially,
as it has no backing...etcetcetc... (hahaha)
  Presenter:
-Thanks John  for your adivices!!!

(hahaha)

-So, about these types of experts who say but say nothing,
which I tried to mention that there are many of these ...hehehe...

-Monthly chart explaining what I just wrote in an easy and intuitive way
to understand a probability of what can and cannot happen...
Easy, very easy hehehe...

Easy?
The levels of complexity and dynamics of markets make me form a bold conclusion of what i just read.
My good manners were helping to hold it back, and my impulse control is waaay better through consumption of supportive medical herbs, too  

 

 Man, what you said, is what I do, perhaps it was the precursor reason for
the attitude of me posting this theory 'without foundation'.
 I believe that the use of calming sedative herbs with anxiolytic effects allows us
to accomplish these unfounded things with the ultimate goal of feeling satisfied happy,...
even if some reactions are a little more radical, this can only occur with the effects
derived from the use of these plants.

 I'm sure that on the contrary, I would never have this audacity.

 Since I have mentioned that this is baseless, my goal is only to enjoy happiness,
no matter how bad what I have written, lol

[hypebrother]

And or else, in the worst case, the price stabilizes at 100k and
we will not see a new high... And then go to zero, as many experts say,
this is just another bubble and bitcoin died hahahaha....

"Many" is a very relative subject.
How many of all "experts" say so?
1%, maybe 3% ?
That's not much, or is it?

 So, I could have written 'some'' and or edited for 'some', but no, it's a lot of them,
but I mean these 'stock market experts' who recommend 'portfolios' to 'bank clients'
and earn commissions for it...

 I'll leave a recurring example that I see in popular media,
maybe you agree, or not, no problem.

 You know these popular news programs, that when they talk about the economy,
they call that expert sponsored by the sponsor of the program...
 And when the presenter calls the specialist...:

-Now we are going to talk about economics with economist 'John',
and he will talk about the market and investment tips.
John:
-The market is falling but it is rising, and what stood out was
the 'I don't know that', and 'I don't know what fell a lot', and 'I don't know that'
it was stable...
 It's a good investment option at the moment would be X and Y for the long term,
because blablablahhh...
 Presenter:
 -And the bitcoin that is so often said to be the currency of the future,
would it be a good time to invest now and or wait a little longer?
   John:
 -Yes, bitcoin is a well-known currency on the internet, but the general population
is unaware of it and does not understand how it works, and they end up
falling into scams and or something like that, but there are uses for it and it
has a security that to this day has not been broken, and it all depends on the user,
its security, if the person is lay, he can end up losing,.. or being hacked,...
 many prefer to leave this part of the security in the hands of third parties...
  But the asset itself is not recommended for large investments by people
with little monetary power, yes some large banks and some countries have it
in their reserves, but because it is a very volatile asset, it is not recommended
to have more than '3% in your portfolio', as it can fall exponentially,
as it has no backing...etcetcetc... (hahaha)
  Presenter:
-Thanks John  for your adivices!!!

(hahaha)

-So, about these types of experts who say but say nothing,
which I tried to mention that there are many of these ...hehehe...

-Monthly chart explaining what I just wrote in an easy and intuitive way
to understand a probability of what can and cannot happen...
Easy, very easy hehehe...

Easy?
The levels of complexity and dynamics of markets make me form a bold conclusion of what i just read.
My good manners were helping to hold it back, and my impulse control is waaay better through consumption of supportive medical herbs, too  

 

 Man, what you said, is what I do, perhaps it was the precursor reason for
the attitude of me posting this theory 'without foundation'.
 I believe that the use of calming sedative herbs with anxiolytic effects allows us
to accomplish these unfounded things with the ultimate goal of feeling satisfied happy,...
even if some reactions are a little more radical, this can only occur with the effects
derived from the use of these plants.

 I'm sure that on the contrary, I would never have this audacity.

 Since I have mentioned that this is baseless, my goal is only to enjoy happiness,
no matter how bad what I have written, lol

" store secretK on Secret place is almost impossible"

Why not use a piece of paper?

[fillippone]

It’s my turn:





Where am I?

[Biodom]

Get a load of this:

https://horsford.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/horsford.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/miller-horsford_digital-asset-tax-bill-discussion-draft.pdf

Bitcoin is not on the menu, apparently, ....as far as de minimis tx is concerned.
I guess ...good luck with buying that coffee with LN.

EDIT: i don't pay much attention to the stablecoin yield as stablecoins are somewhat retarded, imho.
They are like a WD40 (or KY jelly, lol) that smooths things, but not the essence.

seems to try to solve the income issue. for mining ⛏️

and the stable coin issue should be as they are trying to do.

I will have to study exactly what the mining law ends up being.

If I read it correctly, it solves the staking issues for everybody else, while leaving the bitcoin miners exactly where they currently are (taxed at receipt).
They already got a major push-back on this.

[cAPSLOCK]

I have developed my 2026-2028 plans..with not much happening in 2026 and most action scheduled for 2028.

IMHO, 2029 would NOT be the year of the market peak, this one is getting more or less clear.

I think 2026 will be the year we bottom, we haven’t bottomed yet.

2027 sideways chop, slight price increase.

2028 bull run with 2029 peak & then beginning of next bear market.

This would fit the mold.

I am making no predictions until I can't help it anymore then I make a prediction and it'll be way, way too bullish. So never am I going to make a prediction except maybe later.

[hypebrother]

It’s my turn:





Where am I?

Right to privacy matters!
Edit:


Introducing Open-Sourced Linux aka Ubuntu

[cAPSLOCK]

x

The content of the tweet makes little sense to me, including around a 4.5x increase in  price from the current price within the next 2-ish years..

I would speculate that if there were any level of confidence that the BTC price would go up (even double from here) within around 2 years, then the rational action would be to buy at any price... so I suppose who are waiting for a lower entry point are not having any confidence in the upside.. perhaps being greedy, if they are considering something like $35k in the mix.

I don't know why this is hard. It's easy. You define "not a bear market" in two years as $300,000. And then the statement is true.

[cAPSLOCK]

I have to say I'm gonna feel kind of guilty putting hyperbrother on ignore, but it's kind of simple. I have plenty of my own batshit crazy to filter through. It keeps me pretty damn busy honestly.

[hypebrother]

I have to say I'm gonna feel kind of guilty putting hyperbrother on ignore, but it's kind of simple. I have plenty of my own batshit crazy to filter through. It keeps me pretty damn busy honestly.

Apologies accepted!