Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RUEHL]

Just noting for those that don't think China matters, volume during this runup on Huobi (one of 2 big Chinese exchanges) has been 4x that of Bitstamp (Westerner's largest exchange).

Both Huobi and OKCoin represent 60% of the global Bitcoin exchange market.  Bitstamp is 7%.

[1714046288]

1714046288

[1714046288]

1714046288

[1714046288]

1714046288

[1714046288]

1714046288

[1714046288]

1714046288

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[seleme]

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

Look at Darkcoin. +30% last 24h, yeah that's sustainable.

I too have noticed that alts like LTC and DOGE are not following BTC, they are flat or even seeing new lows (DOGE).

I suspect Darkcoin and perhaps a few other alts have something to do with it. Darkcoin has anonymous transactions. Now, ignore Darkcoin and that for a second, my point is really that LTC and DOGE has basically nothing that BTC does not have (LTC has slightly faster transactions, DOGE has MARKETING) and that leaves the door open for any new altcoin that does something which is fundamentally different (more anonymous transactions, for example).

Regardless, it seems BTC has come out #1 and left the challengers in the dust this round.

Nah, I don't buy that "this altcoin doesn't have anything BTC doesn't". Nobody cares about that apart from marketing purposes in pumps. Both LTC and DOGE will get pumped again, and again, it's just matter of time and if we'll see divergence in alts as it was before December, that's tricky part.

I liked divergence before but since I am already invested in some alts it would be pretty shitty if it would occur at the moment.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Just noting for those that don't think China matters, volume during this runup on Huobi (one of 2 big Chinese exchanges) has been 4x that of Bitstamp (Westerner's largest exchange).

Both Huobi and OKCoin represent 60% of the global Bitcoin exchange market.  Bitstamp is 7%.

i'd love for bitstamp to get give us some margin. then maybe it could compete with the best of em

i do think Chinese exchange volumes are pumped by margin, western traders and potentially faking of volume by exchanges (a la OKcoin)

[JorgeStolfi]

the amount of infrastructure, adoption and business being built

Right, it must be all that infrastructure and adoption that has caused the price to drop from 800$ to 450$ over the last 3 months. 

Let's see what effect that will have on price when (if?) China drops out of the picture.  At present I cannot see any, there is that elephant blocking the view. 

There were also many negative developments in the West since November, to counter those positive ones.  Such as the IRS interpretation, the continuing arrests from the SilkRoad case, the MtGOX heist and the dozens of other similar "accidents", the Neo&Bee fiasco, the Fortress embarassment, the bank account closures in Australia and the US, ...

the Chinese doesn't or didn't own 90%

I never claimed that.  Surely the price went up in Oct-Nov because the Chinese traders bought a lot of the coins that were in the Western market.  How many, I have no idea; but it must have been a large fraction, in order to lift the price from ~120$ to ~1200$.  It could have been 90% of the coins, why not?  In any case, if price went up from 120$ when they came buying into the market, we can expect it to go down to 120$ if (when?) they cash out and leave the market.

Also Leon Li claimed to have 10'000 active clients; discounting the hype factor, it seems reasonable to guess 10'000 active traders for all the Chinese exchanges combined.  How many coins does the average trader own?  How many traders are active in the Western exchanges, and how many coins do they own?

Do you have any estimate of those numbers?

He ignores the fact that the Chinese exchanges had 0% fees which explain the much higher volume

I do not ignore that, quite the opposite! It is those who cry "fake" who ignore that.

[ Not true ] that we need to keep getting bigger and bigger markets. [...] the whole worlds the market and it just so happened that a small section of that market tried to put the brakes on.

If you prefer to put it that way:  Bitcoin was confined to a tiny section of the market; with China it got another small section,  now it may lose that and go back to the tiny section it had before.  To get a new and 10x bigger rally it needs to find another small section, that is 10 times less small than the Chinese one was.

It is bizarre to see those "experienced bitcoin traders" scoffing at me when they cannot even tell whether the current buying sprees are coming from China or from the West.   

[Patel]

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

Look at Darkcoin. +30% last 24h, yeah that's sustainable.

I too have noticed that alts like LTC and DOGE are not following BTC, they are flat or even seeing new lows (DOGE).

I suspect Darkcoin and perhaps a few other alts have something to do with it. Darkcoin has anonymous transactions. Now, ignore Darkcoin and that for a second, my point is really that LTC and DOGE has basically nothing that BTC does not have (LTC has slightly faster transactions, DOGE has MARKETING) and that leaves the door open for any new altcoin that does something which is fundamentally different (more anonymous transactions, for example).

Regardless, it seems BTC has come out #1 and left the challengers in the dust this round.

Darkcoin saved my alt portfolio, but i think other ults will start pumping, when the new crypto proponents enter, this space, (they all dislike bitcoin for some reason and justify using alts, just wait until the feedback loop starts)

At the start of the bitcoin run up from $120 to $1,000 i picked up a fiew LTC at $3 it then outperformed bitcoin i believe for the reason above. I never thought it could take off, but it did.  The same thing will happen to a few select alts, not sure how LTC will go though, but it will be something to monitor.

Darkcoin is a great concept, but I wish they would start over. Reason being, originally there were supposed to be 84 million, and there was a bug that instamined 10%, and then they lowered it to 21 million after those coins were out. So about 8400000 coins from the instamine if I calculated correctly.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

Look at Darkcoin. +30% last 24h, yeah that's sustainable.

I too have noticed that alts like LTC and DOGE are not following BTC, they are flat or even seeing new lows (DOGE).

I suspect Darkcoin and perhaps a few other alts have something to do with it. Darkcoin has anonymous transactions. Now, ignore Darkcoin and that for a second, my point is really that LTC and DOGE has basically nothing that BTC does not have (LTC has slightly faster transactions, DOGE has MARKETING) and that leaves the door open for any new altcoin that does something which is fundamentally different (more anonymous transactions, for example).

Regardless, it seems BTC has come out #1 and left the challengers in the dust this round.

Darkcoin saved my alt portfolio, but i think other ults will start pumping, when the new crypto proponents enter, this space, (they all dislike bitcoin for some reason and justify using alts, just wait until the feedback loop starts)

At the start of the bitcoin run up from $120 to $1,000 i picked up a fiew LTC at $3 it then outperformed bitcoin i believe for the reason above. I never thought it could take off, but it did.  The same thing will happen to a few select alts, not sure how LTC will go though, but it will be something to monitor.

Darkcoin is a great concept, but I wish they would start over. Reason being, originally there were supposed to be 84 million, and there was a bug that instamined 10%, and then they lowered it to 21 million after those coins were out. So about 8400000 coins from the instamine if I calculated correctly.

really? i had no idea. any idea how those coins were distributed? was it just a handful of insiders who developed the coin like an actual premine? or was there just a general mining frenzy?

[Patel]

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

Look at Darkcoin. +30% last 24h, yeah that's sustainable.

I too have noticed that alts like LTC and DOGE are not following BTC, they are flat or even seeing new lows (DOGE).

I suspect Darkcoin and perhaps a few other alts have something to do with it. Darkcoin has anonymous transactions. Now, ignore Darkcoin and that for a second, my point is really that LTC and DOGE has basically nothing that BTC does not have (LTC has slightly faster transactions, DOGE has MARKETING) and that leaves the door open for any new altcoin that does something which is fundamentally different (more anonymous transactions, for example).

Regardless, it seems BTC has come out #1 and left the challengers in the dust this round.

Darkcoin saved my alt portfolio, but i think other ults will start pumping, when the new crypto proponents enter, this space, (they all dislike bitcoin for some reason and justify using alts, just wait until the feedback loop starts)

At the start of the bitcoin run up from $120 to $1,000 i picked up a fiew LTC at $3 it then outperformed bitcoin i believe for the reason above. I never thought it could take off, but it did.  The same thing will happen to a few select alts, not sure how LTC will go though, but it will be something to monitor.

Darkcoin is a great concept, but I wish they would start over. Reason being, originally there were supposed to be 84 million, and there was a bug that instamined 10%, and then they lowered it to 21 million after those coins were out. So about 8400000 coins from the instamine if I calculated correctly.

really? i had no idea. any idea how those coins were distributed? was it just a handful of insiders who developed the coin like an actual premine? or was there just a general mining frenzy?

the mining algorithm they were using had a bug, which determined how many coins would be rewarded

correction:

Was Darkcoin Instamined?

~2mn coins were issued in the first 48 hours due to problems with the difficulty readjustment. That represents approximately 10-15% of the total money supply that will ever be issued.

The majority of these coins were distributed through the market in the following weeks and months at very low price levels* (0.0000x BTC per DRK to 0.000x BTC per DRK) and a lot of them were also absorbed in the April/May 2014 price increase.

• Examples of prices and selling action almost two weeks after launch:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg4861558#msg4861558

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg4889177#msg4889177

[Richy_T]

To get a new and 10x bigger rally it needs to find another small section, that is 10 times less small than the Chinese one was.

This is completely flawed logic. Incoming fiat would be likely to raise prices but the two are loosely coupled.

Of course, a growing market is preferred.

[FattyMcButterpants]

anyone think there's anything to these Indian exchanges opening up? you think demand will develop there like we saw in China last year?

[greenlion]

anyone think there's anything to these Indian exchanges opening up? you think demand will develop there like we saw in China last year?

Indian exchanges would be huge on a fundamental level, because India is a significant destination for remittances from immigrant labor in the Arab gulf states.

[JorgeStolfi]

Theories for this week's spurts:

(1) @walsoraj suggested (seriously or not) that some large exchange may soon block CNY withdrawals without prior notice.  Traders who got that info are buying BTC now because they expect the price in that exchange to go throught the roof once that happens.  presumably they are privileged clients with a way to take the CNY out in the end.

(2) The Chinese exchanges are about to open offshore sections.  Chinese clients who can trade there are buying BTC in order to move their money to those exchanges without paying the bank fees and limits to convert from CNY to CNH or whatever currency they use there.

(3) Some people claim that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins for its investors on Thursdays.  Perhaps they got extra investors this week and/or their off-market sources were not enough.  (Their minimum investment is 25'000 USD = 50 BTC.)

(4) Someone offered to exchange a large pile of altcoins for BTC, and interested parties scrambled to buy the BTC.

(5) Someone got insider news of some significant positive development in the West.

What else?

To me, the spurts of the last two days look like insider trading; each separate jump being another tradr or group of traders getting some significant news.  That would rule out (3), maybe (2) too.

EDIT: typos.

[N12]

Theories for this week spurts:
 are buying BTC to take

(1) @walsoraj suggested (seriously or not) that some large exchange may soon block CNY withdrawals without prior notice.  Traders who got that info are buying BTC now because they expect the price in that exchange to go throught the roof once that happens.  presumably they are privileged clients with a way to take the CNY out in the end.

(2) The Chinese exchanges are about to open offshore sections.  Chinese clients who can trade there are buying BTC in order to move their money to those exchanges without paying the bank fees and limits to convert from CNY to CNH or whatever currency they use there.

(3) Some people claim that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins for its investors on Thursdays.  Perhaps they got extra investors this week and/or their off-market sources were not enough.  (Their minimum investment is 25'000 USD = 50 BTC.)

(4) Someone offered to exchange a large pile of altcoins for BTC, and interested parties scrambled to buy the BTC.

(5) Someone got insider news of some significant positive development in the West.

What else?

Low volatility causes high volatility when inevitably, supply and demand finds itself in disequilibrium, which doesn't need any "reason" to happen.

[oda.krell]

Theories for this week spurts:
 are buying BTC to take

(1) @walsoraj suggested (seriously or not) that some large exchange may soon block CNY withdrawals without prior notice.  Traders who got that info are buying BTC now because they expect the price in that exchange to go throught the roof once that happens.  presumably they are privileged clients with a way to take the CNY out in the end.

(2) The Chinese exchanges are about to open offshore sections.  Chinese clients who can trade there are buying BTC in order to move their money to those exchanges without paying the bank fees and limits to convert from CNY to CNH or whatever currency they use there.

(3) Some people claim that SecondMarket's BIT fund only buys bitcoins for its investors on Thursdays.  Perhaps they got extra investors this week and/or their off-market sources were not enough.  (Their minimum investment is 25'000 USD = 50 BTC.)

(4) Someone offered to exchange a large pile of altcoins for BTC, and interested parties scrambled to buy the BTC.

(5) Someone got insider news of some significant positive development in the West.

What else?

Low volatility causes high volatility when inevitably, supply and demand finds itself in disequilibrium, which doesn't need any "reason" to happen.

"But, Blitz!", Jorge said, "there cannot possibly be any way to determine if supply and demand 'finds itself in disequilibrium' as you call it. That'd be like, magic!"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Low volatility causes high volatility when inevitably, supply and demand finds itself in disequilibrium, which doesn't need any "reason" to happen.

The first circled section is the Chinese new Year's week, Jan/31--Feb/06, when banks were closed in China. The drop on Feb/07 may be people needing cash to pay bills.   

In the Chinese exchanges, that drop was only ~5%.  It was followed by an ~8% drop on Feb/10, apparently right after Mark's "bug in bitcoin" announcement.

Curiously on Bitstamp the drop on Feb/07 was deeper than in China, about ~8%, and there was no drop on Feb/10.  Perhaps because the West misinterpreted the Feb/07 Chinese drop as being some bad news from MtGOX, but laughed at Mark's claim on Feb/10?

In the second circled area, the drop on Mar/27 was clearly due to the Caixin leak about the PBoC "strenghtening" circular.

The small drop on May/11, after the third circled area, may have been the announcement by FXBTC that they were closing down.

[the_sunship]

I would think many people invested in Ripple are switching over to BTC after this announcement 

https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/

[windjc]

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

I for one think investing in alts at this point risky.  There is a good chance we are in a bull run that will turn out to be a part of a bearish continuation. As alts lag, an investment in alts could turn south quickly. All the alts are still at historically high levels vs. where the were prior to the last bubble including LTC.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Interesting that this time alts are not following BTC, they're even going lower. Are we going to see decoupling again like before December?

I for one think investing in alts at this point risky.  There is a good chance we are in a bull run that will turn out to be a part of a bearish continuation. As alts lag, an investment in alts could turn south quickly. All the alts are still at historically high levels vs. where the were prior to the last bubble including LTC.

i would agree with this. i also think if and when we see a new bull cycle (if it has not already begun) then we might see alts plummet against BTC as they did last Novemeber

[dreamspark]

the amount of infrastructure, adoption and business being built

Right, it must be all that infrastructure and adoption that has caused the price to drop from 800$ to 450$ over the last 3 months.  

Let's see what effect that will have on price when (if?) China drops out of the picture.  At present I cannot see any, there is that elephant blocking the view.  

There were also many negative developments in the West since November, to counter those positive ones.  Such as the IRS interpretation, the continuing arrests from the SilkRoad case, the MtGOX heist and the dozens of other similar "accidents", the Neo&Bee fiasco, the Fortress embarassment, the bank account closures in Australia and the US, ...

You answered your own first point with your last. Those few businesses do not take away from the countless others in regard to is infrastructure being built.

the Chinese doesn't or didn't own 90%

I never claimed that.  Surely the price went up in Oct-Nov because the Chinese traders bought a lot of the coins that were in the Western market.  How many, I have no idea; but it must have been a large fraction, in order to lift the price from ~120$ to ~1200$.  It could have been 90% of the coins, why not?  In any case, if price went up from 120$ when they came buying into the market, we can expect it to go down to 120$ if (when?) they cash out and leave the market.

Also Leon Li claimed to have 10'000 active clients; discounting the hype factor, it seems reasonable to guess 10'000 active traders for all the Chinese exchanges combined.  How many coins does the average trader own?  How many traders are active in the Western exchanges, and how many coins do they own?

Do you have any estimate of those numbers?

keep dreaming of $120 but absent am actual flaw with the protocol just not gonna happen. Why do you ignore all the non-chinese who are in btc since when you believe China entered the market in these assumptions? You are assuming that if the whole Chinese market leaves (which it won't) we will be back to the same number of people holding the same number of coins.

Add into that the traders who happily trade on both exchanges and your 10,000 figure for just Chinese shrinks somewhat.

A guesstimate at best obviously but more than 10,000 traders for sure. Gox had a million accounts, can't you glean something from that!

[ Not true ] that we need to keep getting bigger and bigger markets. [...] the whole worlds the market and it just so happened that a small section of that market tried to put the brakes on.

If you prefer to put it that way:  Bitcoin was confined to a tiny section of the market; with China it got another small section,  now it may lose that and go back to the tiny section it had before.  To get a new and 10x bigger rally it needs to find another small section, that is 10 times less small than the Chinese one was.

It is bizarre to see those "experienced bitcoin traders" scoffing at me when they cannot even tell whether the current buying sprees are coming from China or from the West.  

Um, no what happens if that section invests more fiat? It may be the same size but guess which way the price goes.

Nobody can tell for sure where the buying sprees are coming from that's why, you'd be a fool to suggest you could for sure for a start. Also unless coins are transferred from the west to China or vice versa the buying sprees in % holdings per markets doesn't change regardless of price.

Edited for formatting.