Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Much crowds, very spread, truly not just pump manipulation in dead market, volume not stagnating at all.

[1714095297]

1714095297

[1714095297]

1714095297

[1714095297]

1714095297

[dreamspark]

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

Correct me if I'm wrong but arent those charts old? They look 2-3 weeks old to me?

They are.

Thats one of the worst bear fails I've seen around here 

[podyx]

Much crowds, very spread, truly not just pump manipulation in dead market, volume not stagnating at all.

[windjc]

If and when the walls fall at 530, we will be breaking out past 547.

Then we can actually start having a debate about whether we are in a bull market or not.

I do expect this to happen, btw.

[navigator]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

[wachtwoord]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

I go with $1163 of Bitstamp.

[blatchcorn]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

The days of sub-$500 BTC are over.

I am going to sleep and when I wake up I want to see the price at $540.  Do me proud bitcoin.

[N12]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/268d9d/founder_of_ripple_is_announcing_he_is_dumping_his/

WHERE ARE YOU MAH?

RIPPLE IS DEAD

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wachtwoord]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/268d9d/founder_of_ripple_is_announcing_he_is_dumping_his/

WHERE ARE YOU MAH?

RIPPLE IS DEAD

About damn time.

[oda.krell]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

There are sell-offs all the time. You mean, how far will we get before we see the first major retracement, right?

My guess is ~620.

[thezerg]

Its sad to see all this effort go to waste.  Ripple, NXT, ethereum.  If you premine > 1% (and those should be unspendable for 5 years; think stock option vesting) or you close source then no matter how good your ideas are I don't give a sh*t.  We don't need another proprietary payment network.  Go sell your stuff to Visa or MC.  

PS: You probably would have done just fine by being an early miner of your own coin...

[ihaveaquestion]

I am also bearish on LTC and DOGE. What do you think about Nxt? I am very bullish on that one. Aminorex don't you think that Proof of Stake is a much more valuable than privacy considering the launch of DarkWallet?

[rpietila]

Occasionally I also ask if any altcoins have compelling value. Now at least there are the 2.0 coins and the anonycoins. Just having scrypt is not interesting enough.

[BitChick]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

There are sell-offs all the time. You mean, how far will we get before we see the first major retracement, right?

My guess is ~620.

If I as the "uber Bull" have been quiet today it is because BitchicksHusband informed me just this morning that he had to "sell off" BTC2 yesterday to pay some bills (partially because of Kings playoff tickets and his monthly payment for his new car ).  I said, "Right during a rally!!?"  I would have rather left some balance on our credit card and kept the coins!  Don't come between a Chick and her coin stash!!!  

But that said, some of us are not planning on selling off until much later than $620!  If I had my way, I would just wait until $100,000 per coin.  

[N12]

I'm putting what will be the future. Bitstamp adopted it, Fidor Bank adopted it, soon Kraken and Itbit and people are still doubting there is something interesting behind ripple ?

It is not a "get rich conspiracy blabla" and this is not centralized. It will take time for people to admit it but this is the truth.

Tell that to the Ripple founder, Jed McCaleb who just decided to SELL SELL SELL.

[Walsoraj]

http://www.ripplecharts.com/#/markets

 

And the xrptalk post states that he will start selling in two weeks. Might not be any fiat left...

[oda.krell]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

There are sell-offs all the time. You mean, how far will we get before we see the first major retracement, right?

My guess is ~620.

If I as the "uber Bull" have been quiet today it is because BitchicksHusband informed me just this morning that he had to "sell off" BTC2 yesterday to pay some bills (partially because of Kings playoff tickets and his monthly payment for his new car ).  I said, "Right during a rally!!?"  I would have rather left some balance on our credit card and kept the coins!  Don't come between a Chick and her coin stash!!!  

But that said, some of us are not planning on selling off until much later than $620!  If I had my way, I would just wait until $100,000 per coin.  

We're talking different time frames.

I'm sure you know by now it never goes up in a straight line. ~620 is simply my bet when we'll see the first large enough profit taking to make us take a step back and catch our breath.

[trc]

Occasionally I also ask if any altcoins have compelling value. Now at least there are the 2.0 coins and the anonycoins. Just having scrypt is not interesting enough.

Scrypt is destined to die and won't see 2015 IMO. LTC devs said, harshly summarized, "adapt or die" regarding the ASICS and refused to adapt themselves. Coins with no clever names, no purpose or innovation will all perish. Trusting the community while betraying the core idea never works.

[nrd525]

Also I do not believe that price is a random process (certainly not for large-scale motions like these).  The large drops in the past, and most of the rallies, all had obvious external causes.  The Brownian model (with variable variance) is merely the only "technical analysis" model (i.e. model that does not have external factors as inputs) that seems to be validated in practice.  Which means that, indeed, I do not see any reason to believe in TA.

The reason to follow TA is because others believe in it.  It is irrational to ignore the perspectives of other major market actors.  

I do think there are tons of silly TA charts that are meaningless - but if there are investors with enough money that act on them - then they matter.