Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Are we due for another rally already? lol

[elg]

wall at 530 seems a real one....

[hd060053]

Huobi seems to be the only market with a surplus of money... hopefully they have enough to keep this rally going.

It is what I was thinking. For an exchange who is supposed to be cut off from banks and without margin trading it is not that bad 

okcoin is leading, huobi just following, then bitstamp. i followed the charts.

[MoreFun]

Has China banned Bitcoin this week yet?

[harlenadler]

It looks like the bulls are back. Kind of low volume, but some seem eager to take out that wall around 530. Wonder if it will get eaten.... or pulled

[studio1one]

going up again shortly. Just broke the third pennant.

watch.

[windjc]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

There are sell-offs all the time. You mean, how far will we get before we see the first major retracement, right?

My guess is ~620.

If I as the "uber Bull" have been quiet today it is because BitchicksHusband informed me just this morning that he had to "sell off" BTC2 yesterday to pay some bills (partially because of Kings playoff tickets and his monthly payment for his new car ).  I said, "Right during a rally!!?"  I would have rather left some balance on our credit card and kept the coins!  Don't come between a Chick and her coin stash!!!  

But that said, some of us are not planning on selling off until much later than $620!  If I had my way, I would just wait until $100,000 per coin.  

We're talking different time frames.

I'm sure you know by now it never goes up in a straight line. ~620 is simply my bet when we'll see the first large enough profit taking to make us take a step back and catch our breath.

Oda,

I spent an hour last night mapping out all the major resistance levels from here to 1000. 620 was not on my list.

Why is that number significant to you?

[vonBerlichingen]

China bans just on June 31th.

[podyx]

I seriously need to go to the bank on monday and get some loans lol!

[wachtwoord]

China bans just on June 31th.

Only then?

[harlenadler]

When do you guys think the first sell-off will be?
Will it crash from 600-400 then back up? 800-600? 1000-400? Previous ATH?

How do we agree on a previous ATH when the price was different on all the exchanges plus mtgox is gone? There was about a 1-day period at virwox where you could have sold 1btc for 300,000 SLL and sold those for $1320. So did virwox have the highest ATH at $1320? or do we go by bitstamp or mtgox or huobi ATH?

When comparing the "point of maximum financial risk" chart with a standard bubble chart, do we overlap the risk chart twice? Going through all the risk emotions quickly during the first sell off? So we should hit a brief euphoria phase near the top of the first sell off?

I believe we will continue going through these bubble fractals until the public phase reaches final saturation. In the previous bubbles, each time we reach the public phase it doesn't absorb everyone so there is room left over for more bubbles. Bitcoin won't stop making bubbles until we've blown them in everyone's faces.

There are sell-offs all the time. You mean, how far will we get before we see the first major retracement, right?

My guess is ~620.

If I as the "uber Bull" have been quiet today it is because BitchicksHusband informed me just this morning that he had to "sell off" BTC2 yesterday to pay some bills (partially because of Kings playoff tickets and his monthly payment for his new car ).  I said, "Right during a rally!!?"  I would have rather left some balance on our credit card and kept the coins!  Don't come between a Chick and her coin stash!!!  

But that said, some of us are not planning on selling off until much later than $620!  If I had my way, I would just wait until $100,000 per coin.  

We're talking different time frames.

I'm sure you know by now it never goes up in a straight line. ~620 is simply my bet when we'll see the first large enough profit taking to make us take a step back and catch our breath.

Oda,

I spent an hour last night mapping out all the major resistance levels from here to 1000. 620 was not on my list.

Why is that number significant to you?

It is significant to me because it was a pivot point 3 times on the daily chart during March and April. So I think there is resistance there:

[studio1one]

breakout coming.....

[hd060053]

breakout coming.....

very creative lines

[studio1one]

breakout coming.....

very creative lines

I'm an artist trapped in an analysts body

[aminorex]

In other words, the current exchange rate implies  that 520/1.52 = 342 Bitcoin is only 342 times more valuable than MRO right now. This multiple seems way too low for me (>1:10,000 seems more correct) so at least relative to Bitcoin MRO is vastly overpriced in my opinion.

I would be breaking my promise if I were to say more than that while this is reasonable if you accept the precedent of the implied discounting curve derived from bitcoin's historical price series, I have two counter-arguments, (1) that the bitcoin discounting curve was extreme because crypto itself was much less well-proven as a concept and technology -- the threats which btc defeated are unlikely to arise again, and (2) that the bitcoin discounting curve was very long because adoption ground had not been broken, while the mro adoption phase, if it manifests at all, will almost certainly be much, much shorter.  Therefore, I will have to defer any calculations based on re-parameterizing the discount curve to the MRO thread, where it belongs: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg6883247#msg6883247
 

[elasticband]

I told several friends locally the price would rise on the 20th,  the tuesday after the 2014 conference here in Amsterdam. looks like I was right, 400e so close

I bought back at €350, a portion I sold near the  €300 range, not much just over 10coins. bought back for a small loss instead of just withdrawing the euro.

[KFR]

Hahahah bet that clown Mah is crying himself to sleep right now!!!

Good riddance to bad rubbish!

Listen, whether that chap's posts annoyed you or not - and I'm one of the many people that had him on ignore for a long time - he's probably losing a lot of money right now.  That pain is real.

I will never understand the relish with which people can treat other people's losses.  All the hand-wringing, cheering and jeering while somebody is actually suffering baffles and upsets me.  He didn't do you any real harm - he didn't do anything to any of us.  He just made a bad call and now he's suffering. 

Spare a thought for how you'd feel if the positions were reversed.  I know you didn't make the bad call - congrats - but what if you had?  Or perhaps if you'd just been the victim of an unexpected attack on the horse that you had backed.  How would you feel about all the sick laughter and pointing while you watched your life savings disappear and very real financial hardship begin to press in on you and possibly your family.

It's like slowing down to rubber-neck at a car crash at the side of the road...  and then laughing at the gore rather than empathising with the victims.

Sorry for singling out your post by the way - yours wasn't the worst example by far.

[edwardspitz]

Huobi seems to be the only market with a surplus of money... hopefully they have enough to keep this rally going.

It is what I was thinking. For an exchange who is supposed to be cut off from banks and without margin trading it is not that bad 

okcoin is leading, huobi just following, then bitstamp. i followed the charts.

... we're solving the global puzzle to make the price of Bitcoin go up

[wachtwoord]

In other words, the current exchange rate implies  that 520/1.52 = 342 Bitcoin is only 342 times more valuable than MRO right now. This multiple seems way too low for me (>1:10,000 seems more correct) so at least relative to Bitcoin MRO is vastly overpriced in my opinion.

I would be breaking my promise if I were to say more than that while this is reasonable if you accept the precedent of the implied discounting curve derived from bitcoin's historical price series, I have two counter-arguments, (1) that the bitcoin discounting curve was extreme because crypto itself was much less well-proven as a concept and technology -- the threats which btc defeated are unlikely to arise again, and (2) that the bitcoin discounting curve was very long because adoption ground had not been broken, while the mro adoption phase, if it manifests at all, will almost certainly be much, much shorter.  Therefore, I will have to defer any calculations based on re-parameterizing the discount curve to the MRO thread, where it belongs.
 

Fair enough, but this is the best valuation technique I have available to altcoins.

Disclosure: I have no investments in any altcoin right now. I've held (smallish positions) in LTC and PPC before which I both sold near their peak (which is always luck for a large part).

[studio1one]

Hahahah bet that clown Mah is crying himself to sleep right now!!!

Good riddance to bad rubbish!

Listen, whether that chap's posts annoyed you or not - and I'm one of the many people that had him on ignore for a long time - he's probably losing a lot of money right now.  That pain is real.

I will never understand the relish with which people can treat other people's losses.  All the hand-wringing, cheering and jeering while somebody is actually suffering baffles and upsets me.  He didn't do you any real harm - he didn't do anything to any of us.  He just made a bad call and now he's suffering. 

Spare a thought for how you'd feel if the positions were reversed.  I know you didn't make the bad call - congrats - but what if you had?  Or perhaps if you'd just been the victim of an unexpected attack on the horse that you had backed.  How would you feel about all the sick laughter and pointing while you watched your life savings disappear and very real financial hardship begin to press in on you and possibly your family.

It's like slowing down to rubber-neck at a car crash at the side of the road...  and then laughing at the gore rather than empathising with the victims.

Sorry for singling out your post by the way - yours wasn't the worst example by far.

its nice to be nice