Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NewLiberty]

Regarding silk road coins, if you had around $1.809.000 and bough BTC for it, would you sell them straight away? I don't think so. Anyone buying those coins will be longterm holders.

I have this notion (please correct me) that government auctions of other kinds of property, such as cars and houses, generally are closed well below the respective market prices.

It seems that the people who bid at government auctions usually include "professionals" who buy only to resell.  Those people place bids significantly below market price; if there are no higher bidders, they have made their day; otherwise they just retrieve their deposit and move on to the next auction.  People who are not "professionals" tend to be scared away by the bureaucratic requirements and the large deposit.

Since there will be some delay between sending the payment and receiving the coins, the bidders will also have to factor into their bids the likelihood of the market price falling in that interval and then taking months to recover. 

In summary, it is by no means assured that the auction will close above market. I rather expect the opposite.

The limited buyer group tends to insure that auctions go below market.
Unless these coins are more valuable than others.
The bigger the buying audience, the better the auction pricing and closer to market.

[dreamspark]

I think its clutching at straws to try and relate this as directly similar to SR crash, enough people are saying it for it to possibly materialize to spark a rally but the sentiment and the way the market moved were very different at that time.

[TERA]

The shape is similar but the magnitude, volume, and position within the trend are not.

I think it is almost exactly the same position in the trend. It's only up from here.

It's not the same position because we were in the progress of doing the initial breakdown correction rather than break upwards. The weekly MACD wasn't even green, whereas in 2013 the weekly MACD had already been green for two candles. Also, we have yet to even test the major resistance at $850. Yes, there are two resistances in 2014 vs one in 2013.

Well you can't expect a perfect similarity of course, but the similarities are there and the effect could well be the same as in that this event could kickstart a bigger rally next. A correction was overdue but the market was procrastinating like a bored teenager, and now the FBI gave the market the kick in the butt it needed to get the correction going so it can finally move on. The trend was up and I don't think this is going to stop the 1w MACD from crossing upwards, it will imo most likely accelerate the process the market was going to go through anyways just like the SR crash did.

Forget 'perfect match': this is no match at all: The proportions on the long term charts are nothing alike and the volume ratios tell all. This is not some kind of abnormal flash crash - this is a normal intiial market correction after a rally which was preciptated by an irrelevant catalyst.

[dreamspark]

Regarding silk road coins, if you had around $1.809.000 and bough BTC for it, would you sell them straight away? I don't think so. Anyone buying those coins will be longterm holders.

I have this notion (please correct me) that government auctions of other kinds of property, such as cars and houses, generally are closed well below the respective market prices.

It seems that the people who bid at government auctions usually include "professionals" who buy only to resell.  Those people place bids significantly below market price; if there are no higher bidders, they have made their day; otherwise they just retrieve their deposit and move on to the next auction.  People who are not "professionals" tend to be scared away by the bureaucratic requirements and the large deposit.

Since there will be some delay between sending the payment and receiving the coins, the bidders will also have to factor into their bids the likelihood of the market price falling in that interval and then taking months to recover.  

In summary, it is by no means assured that the auction will close above market. I rather expect the opposite.

The limited buyer group tends to insure that auctions go below market.
Unless these coins are more valuable than others.
The bigger the buying audience, the better the auction pricing and closer to market.

I agree but this is a very unique auction and a unique opportunity. Liquidity is king and its not very easy or safe to buy several thousand BTC on exchange or off exchange. On exchange is hard if you dont trust exchanges with a million of your dollars and off exchange is hard if you don't have the connections.

Property and vehicles that go in government auctions are a very regular occurrence and not widely advertised, in contrast this is known world wide and the first chance to get BTC in this "regulated" way. I can't see the coins going for too much below market price if at all. In fact one could argue that it could go above market price due to the chance at no slippage. However due to the way the bids are being done market price will vary a lot so there will be people not willing to put current market price bids in, in case the market tanks.

[Timmmaahh]

lol dat volume at stamp.. 30k..

[phosphorush]

are we going down a bit? have some USD to spend -_-

[dnaleor]

Bitstamp was called Bearstamp a few days ago... That was clearly FUD... Now it's Bullstamp
(Bitstamp at 605; BTC-e at 599)

[oda.krell]

The shape is similar but the magnitude, volume, and position within the trend are not.

I think it is almost exactly the same position in the trend. It's only up from here.

It's not the same position because we were in the progress of doing the initial breakdown correction rather than break upwards. The weekly MACD wasn't even green, whereas in 2013 the weekly MACD had already been green for two candles. Also, we have yet to even test the major resistance at $850. Yes, there are two resistances in 2014 vs one in 2013.

Well you can't expect a perfect similarity of course, but the similarities are there and the effect could well be the same as in that this event could kickstart a bigger rally next. A correction was overdue but the market was procrastinating like a bored teenager, and now the FBI gave the market the kick in the butt it needed to get the correction going so it can finally move on. The trend was up and I don't think this is going to stop the 1w MACD from crossing upwards, it will imo most likely accelerate the process the market was going to go through anyways just like the SR crash did.

Forget 'perfect match': this is no match at all: The proportions on the long term charts are nothing alike and the volume ratios tell all. This is not some kind of abnormal flash crash - this is a normal intiial market correction after a rally which was preciptated by an irrelevant catalyst.

Absolutely agreed. Not that I consider the 2013 SR flash crash abnormal either, but the volume tells a different story now than back then.

If I had to put it in numbers: I'm 80% certain we are *not* on the verge of the super exponential leg of a new ath rally.

The climb out of the bear valley will however resume soon, I believe. Just not "straight up" like last year.

[madmat]

The shape is similar but the magnitude, volume, and position within the trend are not.

I think it is almost exactly the same position in the trend. It's only up from here.

It's not the same position because we were in the progress of doing the initial breakdown correction rather than break upwards. The weekly MACD wasn't even green, whereas in 2013 the weekly MACD had already been green for two candles. Also, we have yet to even test the major resistance at $850. Yes, there are two resistances in 2014 vs one in 2013.

Well you can't expect a perfect similarity of course, but the similarities are there and the effect could well be the same as in that this event could kickstart a bigger rally next. A correction was overdue but the market was procrastinating like a bored teenager, and now the FBI gave the market the kick in the butt it needed to get the correction going so it can finally move on. The trend was up and I don't think this is going to stop the 1w MACD from crossing upwards, it will imo most likely accelerate the process the market was going to go through anyways just like the SR crash did.

Forget 'perfect match': this is no match at all: The proportions on the long term charts are nothing alike and the volume ratios tell all. This is not some kind of abnormal flash crash - this is a normal intiial market correction after a rally which was preciptated by an irrelevant catalyst.

Absolutely agreed. Not that I consider the 2013 SR flash crash abnormal either, but the volume tells a different story now than back then.

If I had to put it in numbers: I'm 80% certain we are *not* on the verge of the super exponential leg of a new ath rally.

The climb out of the bear valley will however resume soon, I believe. Just not "straight up" like last year.

And nothing serious will happen before the 27th, waiting to know the price us marshals sell the 30000btc.

[TERA]

I think in a BEST case scenario be break upwards of $680 in 3 weeks, spend a month consolidating in $800-$900, and then break ATH in September or October.

[Parazyd]

To da moon!

Back to $600. This was quick

[roslinpl]

I just woke up like few minutes ago, and already feel much better after I do checked charts

Volume is amazing ....
Price is waiting

[Parazyd]

I just woke up like few minutes ago, and already feel much better after I do checked charts

Volume is amazing ....
Price is waiting

Today is a good day. Bitcoin was saved, we're back on the choo choo train, and the weather is beautiful.

[Miz4r]

Well you can't expect a perfect similarity of course, but the similarities are there and the effect could well be the same as in that this event could kickstart a bigger rally next. A correction was overdue but the market was procrastinating like a bored teenager, and now the FBI gave the market the kick in the butt it needed to get the correction going so it can finally move on. The trend was up and I don't think this is going to stop the 1w MACD from crossing upwards, it will imo most likely accelerate the process the market was going to go through anyways just like the SR crash did.

Forget 'perfect match': this is no match at all: The proportions on the long term charts are nothing alike and the volume ratios tell all. This is not some kind of abnormal flash crash - this is a normal intiial market correction after a rally which was preciptated by an irrelevant catalyst.

Absolutely agreed. Not that I consider the 2013 SR flash crash abnormal either, but the volume tells a different story now than back then.

If I had to put it in numbers: I'm 80% certain we are *not* on the verge of the super exponential leg of a new ath rally.

The climb out of the bear valley will however resume soon, I believe. Just not "straight up" like last year.

Oh I don't believe we are on the verge of a huge rally like after the SR event either (although anything is possible). I completely agree with everything you and TERA say about the differences. My point was just that both events can be seen as nice catalysts, and they do look similar if you aren't too stuck up about the details.

[gizmoh]

To da moon!

Back to $600. This was quick

Look behind, bid is shallow at bearstamp and max leveraged at finex.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[redjedievolution]

I will change some of my btcs into ltcs to buy mooncoin, look at this buy support on cryptsy https://www.cryptsy.com/markets/view/145

[ft73]

meh ... shotring again @620$ on Finex.

[TERA]

meh ... shotring again @620$ on Finex.

Looks like U.S.D. swaps barely ever fell at all and now they are at a new all-time-high...

[dreamspark]

Cool story bro.

I will change some of my btcs into ltcs to buy mooncoin, look at this buy support on cryptsy https://www.cryptsy.com/markets/view/145

Its surprising the amount of USD longs on Finex is still high and it hardly reduced at all despite a farily significant drop over the last few days.