Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Habeler876]

I think we hit a top here. May be retesting 520 or 530 area (Bitfinex), but I think it will definitely hold this time, we'll see. Hopefully we'll see some bullish divergence to let us know that the low is in, and the rocket primed for takeoff...

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[bitgeek]

I think we hit a top here. May be retesting 520 or 530 area (Bitfinex), but I think it will definitely hold this time, we'll see. Hopefully we'll see some bullish divergence to let us know that the low is in, and the rocket primed for takeoff...

I'm almost sure it will go up soon. There's no real reason for it to go down. Those who panicked because of the road bitcoins auction are just dumb and will regret soon.

[sidhujag]

I think we hit a top here. May be retesting 520 or 530 area (Bitfinex), but I think it will definitely hold this time, we'll see. Hopefully we'll see some bullish divergence to let us know that the low is in, and the rocket primed for takeoff...

Im looking to buy more ... risk $400

[MatTheCat]

I think we hit a top here. May be retesting 520 or 530 area (Bitfinex), but I think it will definitely hold this time, we'll see. Hopefully we'll see some bullish divergence to let us know that the low is in, and the rocket primed for takeoff...

Yesterday, everyone (including myself) thought that $550 was the bottom. Hence the panic buying which took Bitcoin right back up to over $600. Only problem was that the selling pressure kicked right back in gradually increasing in momentum. Today we hit $538. The rebound up to $575 (Stamp) was hardly the sort of emphatic bounce that tells a trader that the bottom is in.

Do you really think that after a test of $520, that the market will be primed for take off?

I think that if $538 falls convincingly, then we have breached a significant long term trend line and perhaps a lot of speculators are going to take one look at it, consider all the scare stories about 51% attacks and FBI coins, and then fold their hands. If not out of raw fear, then out of the understanding that they can cash out a portion of their BTC now, and buy back at much lower prices?

the $538 hit the long term support line smack bang on! There was a reason why Bitcoin stopped there, but has their been, or will there be enough buying pressure at this conjunction in the market, to convince holders of Bitcoiners that $538 was the low?

[nrd525]

Seems pretty negative.  Could be really negative if someone pulls it off and publicizes the results.
http://www.coindesk.com/eavesdropping-attack-can-unmask-60-bitcoin-clients/

What? Bitcoin isn't anonymous?  Oh noes!

Sheesh.  What rock have you been under for the past 5 years?

For all your public financial transactions there is bitcoin.  For everything else there is monero.

It's very different saying bitcoin isn't anonymous (and this is debatable - there may be a public ledger but can you find any of my bitcoin addresses?), and proving it by uploading a spreadsheet with a couple hundred thousand IPs who have been illegally gambling or are tied to porn sites.  If this is true, someone could publicize a couple hundred thousand bitcoin accounts.  

Though on second thought I'm not sure how much an IP address tells you about some people. Mine gives my general location - but it's a large city.  And my IP address changes every month or so last time I checked.  Also - I've got roommates.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Habeler876]

I think we hit a top here. May be retesting 520 or 530 area (Bitfinex), but I think it will definitely hold this time, we'll see. Hopefully we'll see some bullish divergence to let us know that the low is in, and the rocket primed for takeoff...

Yesterday, everyone (including myself) thought that $550 was the bottom. Hence the panic buying which took Bitcoin right back up to over $600. Only problem was that the selling pressure kicked right back in gradually increasing in momentum. Today we hit $538. The rebound up to $575 (Stamp) was hardly the sort of emphatic bounce that tells a trader that the bottom is in.

I certainly didn't think $550 was bottom. Looked mainly like short squeeze and panic buying fish. I admit, I missed the spike to the $620 area but managed to sell $610 (BFX). If we can find diminished sell pressure at the last low or slightly lower low, the bottom will be in. The bounce won't necessarily tell you that. It may need a retest for any confirmation here.

[sidhujag]

Im starting to rethink settling price for bit coin.. since mtgox provided so much volume, it hasn't been replaced. We are only doing about 64k of btc volume a day on all exchanges and to me that means price needs to decrease a bit to find a low...  I'd be happy if it didn't happen, and it will only happen if volume doesnt increases substantially.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

We are only doing about 164k 64k of btc volume a day on all exchanges

Considering only the major exchanges listed in bitcoinwisdom's menu (all in kBTC):

BTC-e 10 + Bitstamp 17 + Bitfinex 25 = 52
Huobi 57 + OKCoin 97 + BTC-China 7 = 161

If you were considering only About the Chinese exchanges, beware that there are another two or three big ones, not listed by Bitcoinwisdom, that may add to 50--100 kBTC/day.

In the "West" there is also LakeBTC that was about as big as Bitstamp in volume, las time I checked.  Bitcoincharts may list them.  There are many others, but I do not know of any large enough to make a difference.

There is also substantial volume of BTC against other cryptocoins, not included in the numbers above.

Bitpay may be considered to be a one-way exchange cum payment processor. But their daily volume must be modest too.

EDIT: quoted poster edited the amount from 164k to 64k.

[sidhujag]

We are only doing about 164k of btc volume a day on all exchanges

Considering only the major exchanges listed in bitcoinwisdom's menu (all in kBTC):

BTC-e 10 + Bitstamp 17 + Bitfinex 25 = 52
Huobi 57 + OKCoin 97 + BTC-China 7 = 161

If you were considering only the Chinese exchanges, beware that there are another two or three big ones, not listed by Bitcoinwisdom, that may add to 50--100 kBTC/day.

In the "West" there is also LakeBTC that was about as big as Bitstamp in volume, las time I checked.  Bitcoincharts may list them.  There are many others, but I do not know of any large enough to make a difference.

There is also substantial volume of BTC against other cryptocoins, not included in the numbers above.

Bitpay may be considered to be a one-way exchange cum payment processor. But their daily volume must be modest too.

In general you only want to look at volume vs fiat to judge price vs fiat.... volume vs alt's doesn't make sense unless people are buying the alt vs fiat and then buying btc vs alt... not many alt volume vs fiat exists so it is negligible.

So are you saying we are going 200-300kbtc volume per day I highly doubt that since its such a large % of supply? Also local bit coins and offline transactions count (ATM's etc) but I'm not sure what these numbers are I alway slook at worsed case and just not factor it into the equation unless it is a big factor. (maybe in a few years based on growth rate)...

YOu also know that volume on these chinese exchanges is sometimes exaggerated and not reported correctly? I'm not sure what the chinese numbers really are if they are fake.

Yea was a typo its 61k today... based on this: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/show/btc

[JorgeStolfi]

YOu also know that volume on these chinese exchanges is sometimes exaggerated and not reported correctly? I'm not sure what the chinese numbers really are if they are fake.

This claim has been repeated thousands of times in the bitcoin media and forums, but never with substantive evidence.  I have found hints that some of OKCoin's transactions (but not Huobi's) may be fake, but those won't reach 10% of that site's volume.

A sufficient explanation for their large numbers is that the Chinese sites charge zero fees, so they attract more clients and each client generates more volume.  That is not "fake volume".  Moreover, as several sources pointed out, China already had a large population of amateur market speculators -- something that seems absent in the West.

On the other hand I suspect that a large fraction of the volume at the "Western" exchanges is merely arbitrage with China.  If arbitragers generate (say) 25k BTC of trade per day on each side of the "frontier", it would be 50% of the Western volume but only 15% of the Chinese one, so the disparity would only increase.

[BBmodBB]

Seems pretty negative.  Could be really negative if someone pulls it off and publicizes the results.
http://www.coindesk.com/eavesdropping-attack-can-unmask-60-bitcoin-clients/

dont go looking for FUD you'll find it, what you want is to put all your monies in bitcoin and step back for 2 years  

coindesk is fud machine! lol =)

[sidhujag]

YOu also know that volume on these chinese exchanges is sometimes exaggerated and not reported correctly? I'm not sure what the chinese numbers really are if they are fake.

This claim has been repeated thousands of times in the bitcoin media and forums, but never with substantive evidence.  I have found hints that some of OKCoin's transactions (but not Huobi's) may be fake, but those won't reach 10% of that site's volume.

A sufficient explanation for their large numbers is that the Chinese sites charge zero fees, so they attract more clients and each client generates more volume.  That is not "fake volume".  Moreover, as several sources pointed out, China already had a large population of amateur market speculators -- something that seems absent in the West.

On the other hand I suspect that a large fraction of the volume at the "Western" exchanges is merely arbitrage with China.  If arbitragers generate (say) 25k BTC of trade per day on each side of the "frontier", it would be 50% of the Western volume but only 15% of the Chinese one, so the disparity would only increase.

So you think because of lower fees everyone around the world sends their fiat to chinese exchanges to purchase bitcoin? I doubt that. Ask 10 ppl here who are new and you will find that answer out.

I think arb volume (bot volume) is a problem and i usually discount the volume by 10 times to try to find the avg buy volume of each day.. I suspect it gives more than enough room on the safe side. Im still weary of those volumes but same goes for ltc 14k ltc on okcoin today and thats about avg.

[JorgeStolfi]

So you think because of lower fees everyone around the world sends their fiat to chinese exchanges to purchase bitcoin?

Not at all! I don't know before December, but since then the flow of yuan into or out of the mainland China exchanges was quite restricted to people with accounts in Chinese banks. 

Thus the supplies of dollars+euros and yuan available for bitcoin trading are basically isolated from each other, except perhaps for some traders.  But bitcoins can be freely transferred between continents, so if there is demand in China, that demand will be immediately felt in the West.

[aminorex]

So you think because of lower fees everyone around the world sends their fiat to chinese exchanges to purchase bitcoin?

Not at all! I don't know before December, but since then the flow of yuan into or out of the mainland China exchanges was quite restricted to people with accounts in Chinese banks. 

Thus the supplies of dollars+euros and yuan available for bitcoin trading are basically isolated from each other, except perhaps for some traders.  But bitcoins can be freely transferred between continents, so if there is demand in China, that demand will be immediately felt in the West.

Not unless the demand is bid by someone with usd/euro - or offered by someone who wants onshore rmb.

[Gingermod]

Bitcoin cultists accusing religious people of being cultists? At least when it comes to religion, people are usually indoctrinated from birth and have massive social pressures (there are hardly people who convert). Now becoming a cultist of your own free will, that's something else.

Also, I don't think there is any disadvantage in investment being Muslim, what does it matter if he gets 0% instead of 1% interest? Nothing.

Free will is an illusion bro

You're an idiot

Nice, insults are very persuasive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq_tG5UJMs0

or try reading "consciousness explained" by Daniel Dennett.

You're an idiot

[sidhujag]

So you think because of lower fees everyone around the world sends their fiat to chinese exchanges to purchase bitcoin?

Not at all! I don't know before December, but since then the flow of yuan into or out of the mainland China exchanges was quite restricted to people with accounts in Chinese banks. 

Thus the supplies of dollars+euros and yuan available for bitcoin trading are basically isolated from each other, except perhaps for some traders.  But bitcoins can be freely transferred between continents, so if there is demand in China, that demand will be immediately felt in the West.

So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation