Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

We rally now?

I think about $1mm usd has to raise its bid by $18 in order to break the wall and rally past 627, which is a fib line.

Monkey tells me this is more likely to happen about 1 hour from now than it was earlier in the day, and if it doesn't, there is a ~.18 chance of fatigue dragging us toward 597 resistance before the next upward thrust.

Monkey says silver is just getting started.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

So why don't they just sell them on ebay?  All of those costs have already been paid, by someone else.

The USMS does hire private companies to do part of the work in some cases; e.g. they may hand over seized cars to a  private car storage company for safekeeping, and interested bidders will inspect them there.  I am not sure, but think that they may even hire a private company to run the whole auction. (Perhaps for art works, jewelry, etc?) 

But they would have to run a bidding process anyway to select the auctioning company, and write a complicated contract with them.  In the case of bitcoins, the total hassle and paperwork would be much higher than directly auctioning the bitcoins by sealed-bid (which is a well-tested routine for them).

[BBmodBB]

So why don't they just sell them on ebay?  All of those costs have already been paid, by someone else.

The USMS does hire private companies to do part of the work in some cases; e.g. they may hand over seized cars to a  private car storage company for safekeeping, and interested bidders will inspect them there.  I am not sure, but think that they may even hire a private company to run the whole auction. (Perhaps for art works, jewelry, etc?)  

But they would have to run a bidding process anyway to select the auctioning company, and write a complicated contract with them.  In the case of bitcoins, the total hassle and paperwork would be much higher than directly auctioning the bitcoins by sealed-bid (which is a well-tested routine for them).

who needs auction coins when we have silkcoins?

~lol i'm just sayin'!!!  

https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_sc

[JayJuanGee]

WOW, LEAKED INFO ON BIDDERS FOR US MASHALL BITCOIN AUCTION


Barry Silbert, CEO for SecondMarket

Luther Lowe, director of public policy for Yelp

Malcolm Oluwasanmi, chairperson of Little Phoenix Investment Group

Fabrice Evangelista, quantitative arbitrage at BNP Paribas

Michal Handerhanm, co-founder and COO of Bitcoin Shop

Dave Goel, managing general partner of Matrix Capital Management

Dinuka Samarasinghe, investment professional

Chris DeMuth Jr., Wrangeley Capital

Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase

Jonathan Disner, corporate counsel at DRW Trading Group

William Brindise, head investment manager at DigitalBTC

Michael Moro, director at SecondMarket

Jennifer R. Jacoby, lawyer at WilmerHale

Sam Lee, co-founder, Bitcoins Reserve

Avarus Corporation

PLUS YELP AND BNP Paribas (fourth largest bank in world)

source please. looks like a few start-up type people, and not as many wallstreeters as i was hoping for. can't complain though.

This just sample, 37 total

of which 27 are sure to go home empty handed

i'm starting to think people that said they coins might sell at a premium we're right!

I have a feeling one person is going to take the whole lot. The FAQs clarified the auction style.

I'm in the camp who suspects a premium being paid.

I have had the same thoughts. My plan was to buy right before the auction, because I speculated that bidders might end up paying more than the market value at the time of the auction:
1) Because they bid each other up (it will be an easy way to get at large stash and "clean coins" could make it more interesting for banks and other institutions)
2) because they will try to manipulate price down before the auction and push the price up after the auction.

So basically I expected that they might pay a premium at the auction because they know they will be able to get more when they sell them on. When the word gets out that they have payed a premium that will raise the price, so they wont even have to do much (if any) pumping.

I think it will be quite easy for them to manipulate the price. Especially if they work together. If they didn't know who each other are they now know thanks to the article . I guess it will be bad for the US gov if it turns out they have sold coins at half price.

I'm now thinking this train of thought may be a too speculative (also considering the auction rules), but it will definitely be interesting to what price they will end up paying.

Edit: Clarification

Your point about what is good or bad for the US Government seems to be off base.  What the fuck the US Govt. care if it generates 1 million or 100 million from the sale of bitcoins?  There are billions of dollars printed every month. 

[JayJuanGee]

I can smell a bubble from a mile away, its happening.

Yes the indicators of a bubble building are here. The US government auction could even be the trigger.

Can you explain how the auction could be the trigger. I think if it is, it could get media attention and the big company that buys it uses the coins to start an exchange.

is this your thought process or did you have something else in mind?

everyone sold coins or wired money to exchanges expecting the price to drop

price is : 605

we get close to the day of, lots of press, good press! poeple wire more monies...

price is : 705

the coins are sold and surprize surprize the price doesn't drop!

price is : 805

3 days later we are in full on bubble mode and there's 10million on the side lines wondering why theres no cheap coins to be had

price is : 1600

next week, looks like will Argentina will default on their debts!

Paso's flood the BTC market, its unbelievable how many Pesos there are and no one wants them!

price is : 3200

the cheap coins lovers realize what's happening and panic buy.

price is : 5200

Obama says "bitcoin will save business more money and create new jobs"

the WORLD PANIC BUYS ALL THE BITCOINS!!!!!!!!!!!

price is : 52,000$

Millions of people are seriously pissed off at wall street for acting so slowly

the people want there bitcoins! NOW!

wall street acts swiftly to respond to the overwhelming demand

its not enough!
its not enough!
its not enough!

the poeple demand MORE MORE MORE!

Price is now : 520,000$





 

So, even with my one bitcoin I will become a half a millionaire?  WOW!!!!

[NotLambchop]

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

[samsonn25]

nice, CHILLIN

[FattyMcButterpants]

Got my Coinbase coins.  Arbitraging Bitfinex for $20/BTC worked.  Funny how that BFX premium (over Bitstamp) didn't last long.  It's pretty much at zero now.

for now. i suspect that if/when China takes off again, Bitfinex will keep in step with Huobi/Okcoin, while Stamp may fall behind. just a hunch.

[Cassius]

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

So it's true. Doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down. Bulls and bears both make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

So it's true. Doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down. Bulls and bears both make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

and thats how they make sausages.

[FattyMcButterpants]

i think it's pretty unrealistic to assume that these coins will be sold at a premium. however, any assumption that the coins will make their way to these horribly illiquid exchanges to chase arbitrage, is also misguided. there's a lot of variables at play.

[minerpumpkin]

We rally now?

I think about $1mm usd has to raise its bid by $18 in order to break the wall and rally past 627, which is a fib line.

Monkey tells me this is more likely to happen about 1 hour from now than it was earlier in the day, and if it doesn't, there is a ~.18 chance of fatigue dragging us toward 597 resistance before the next upward thrust.

Monkey says silver is just getting started.

No rally?

[edwardspitz]

WOW, LEAKED INFO ON BIDDERS FOR US MASHALL BITCOIN AUCTION


Barry Silbert, CEO for SecondMarket

Luther Lowe, director of public policy for Yelp

Malcolm Oluwasanmi, chairperson of Little Phoenix Investment Group

Fabrice Evangelista, quantitative arbitrage at BNP Paribas

Michal Handerhanm, co-founder and COO of Bitcoin Shop

Dave Goel, managing general partner of Matrix Capital Management

Dinuka Samarasinghe, investment professional

Chris DeMuth Jr., Wrangeley Capital

Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase

Jonathan Disner, corporate counsel at DRW Trading Group

William Brindise, head investment manager at DigitalBTC

Michael Moro, director at SecondMarket

Jennifer R. Jacoby, lawyer at WilmerHale

Sam Lee, co-founder, Bitcoins Reserve

Avarus Corporation

PLUS YELP AND BNP Paribas (fourth largest bank in world)

source please. looks like a few start-up type people, and not as many wallstreeters as i was hoping for. can't complain though.

This just sample, 37 total

of which 27 are sure to go home empty handed

i'm starting to think people that said they coins might sell at a premium we're right!

I have a feeling one person is going to take the whole lot. The FAQs clarified the auction style.

I'm in the camp who suspects a premium being paid.

I have had the same thoughts. My plan was to buy right before the auction, because I speculated that bidders might end up paying more than the market value at the time of the auction:
1) Because they bid each other up (it will be an easy way to get at large stash and "clean coins" could make it more interesting for banks and other institutions)
2) because they will try to manipulate price down before the auction and push the price up after the auction.

So basically I expected that they might pay a premium at the auction because they know they will be able to get more when they sell them on. When the word gets out that they have payed a premium that will raise the price, so they wont even have to do much (if any) pumping.

I think it will be quite easy for them to manipulate the price. Especially if they work together. If they didn't know who each other are they now know thanks to the article . I guess it will be bad for the US gov if it turns out they have sold coins at half price.

I'm now thinking this train of thought may be a too speculative (also considering the auction rules), but it will definitely be interesting to what price they will end up paying.

Edit: Clarification

Your point about what is good or bad for the US Government seems to be off base.  What the fuck the US Govt. care if it generates 1 million or 100 million from the sale of bitcoins?  There are billions of dollars printed every month. 

I see your point but government cares if the public cares. Like when Gordon Brown sold off Britain's gold. I just had these thoughts when I first heard of the auction, but the amount of BTC is not that high and also the auction style does not really promote this scenario imo.

[FNG]

i think it's pretty unrealistic to assume that these coins will be sold at a premium. however, any assumption that the coins will make their way to these horribly illiquid exchanges to chase arbitrage, is also misguided. there's a lot of variables at play.

Maybe I need to post this again. Unrealistic? trying to gather a smaller lot on bitstamp by wiring your $18 million to a foreign country, drives the price up 10 fold, and nets a lot less coin

I can easily see them go for a 10-20% premium. Easily

[minerpumpkin]

This may have been answered multiple times now, but can we be sure to get to know the winners and the respective bidding amounts? Can they stay anonymous?

[KFR]

I doubt very much the USMS can keep any secrets whatsoever.

[edwardspitz]

We rally now?

I think about $1mm usd has to raise its bid by $18 in order to break the wall and rally past 627, which is a fib line.

Monkey tells me this is more likely to happen about 1 hour from now than it was earlier in the day, and if it doesn't, there is a ~.18 chance of fatigue dragging us toward 597 resistance before the next upward thrust.

Monkey says silver is just getting started.

I haven't done the math, but the other night when price went to 615 I noticed that a 600 BTC ask wall @Stamp was quickly pulled when traders started eating into it.

[JayJuanGee]

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I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price.

You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises.

It can be argued all ways.

This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said.