Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

WOW, LEAKED INFO ON BIDDERS FOR US MASHALL BITCOIN AUCTION


Barry Silbert, CEO for SecondMarket

Luther Lowe, director of public policy for Yelp

Malcolm Oluwasanmi, chairperson of Little Phoenix Investment Group

Fabrice Evangelista, quantitative arbitrage at BNP Paribas

Michal Handerhanm, co-founder and COO of Bitcoin Shop

Dave Goel, managing general partner of Matrix Capital Management

Dinuka Samarasinghe, investment professional

Chris DeMuth Jr., Wrangeley Capital

Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase

Jonathan Disner, corporate counsel at DRW Trading Group

William Brindise, head investment manager at DigitalBTC

Michael Moro, director at SecondMarket

Jennifer R. Jacoby, lawyer at WilmerHale

Sam Lee, co-founder, Bitcoins Reserve

Avarus Corporation

PLUS YELP AND BNP Paribas (fourth largest bank in world)

source please. looks like a few start-up type people, and not as many wallstreeters as i was hoping for. can't complain though.

This just sample, 37 total

of which 27 are sure to go home empty handed

i'm starting to think people that said they coins might sell at a premium we're right!

I have a feeling one person is going to take the whole lot. The FAQs clarified the auction style.

I'm in the camp who suspects a premium being paid.

I have had the same thoughts. My plan was to buy right before the auction, because I speculated that bidders might end up paying more than the market value at the time of the auction:
1) Because they bid each other up (it will be an easy way to get at large stash and "clean coins" could make it more interesting for banks and other institutions)
2) because they will try to manipulate price down before the auction and push the price up after the auction.

So basically I expected that they might pay a premium at the auction because they know they will be able to get more when they sell them on. When the word gets out that they have payed a premium that will raise the price, so they wont even have to do much (if any) pumping.

I think it will be quite easy for them to manipulate the price. Especially if they work together. If they didn't know who each other are they now know thanks to the article . I guess it will be bad for the US gov if it turns out they have sold coins at half price.

I'm now thinking this train of thought may be a too speculative (also considering the auction rules), but it will definitely be interesting to what price they will end up paying.

Edit: Clarification

Your point about what is good or bad for the US Government seems to be off base.  What the fuck the US Govt. care if it generates 1 million or 100 million from the sale of bitcoins?  There are billions of dollars printed every month. 

[JayJuanGee]

I can smell a bubble from a mile away, its happening.

Yes the indicators of a bubble building are here. The US government auction could even be the trigger.

Can you explain how the auction could be the trigger. I think if it is, it could get media attention and the big company that buys it uses the coins to start an exchange.

is this your thought process or did you have something else in mind?

everyone sold coins or wired money to exchanges expecting the price to drop

price is : 605

we get close to the day of, lots of press, good press! poeple wire more monies...

price is : 705

the coins are sold and surprize surprize the price doesn't drop!

price is : 805

3 days later we are in full on bubble mode and there's 10million on the side lines wondering why theres no cheap coins to be had

price is : 1600

next week, looks like will Argentina will default on their debts!

Paso's flood the BTC market, its unbelievable how many Pesos there are and no one wants them!

price is : 3200

the cheap coins lovers realize what's happening and panic buy.

price is : 5200

Obama says "bitcoin will save business more money and create new jobs"

the WORLD PANIC BUYS ALL THE BITCOINS!!!!!!!!!!!

price is : 52,000$

Millions of people are seriously pissed off at wall street for acting so slowly

the people want there bitcoins! NOW!

wall street acts swiftly to respond to the overwhelming demand

its not enough!
its not enough!
its not enough!

the poeple demand MORE MORE MORE!

Price is now : 520,000$





 

So, even with my one bitcoin I will become a half a millionaire?  WOW!!!!

[NotLambchop]

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

[samsonn25]

nice, CHILLIN

[FattyMcButterpants]

Got my Coinbase coins.  Arbitraging Bitfinex for $20/BTC worked.  Funny how that BFX premium (over Bitstamp) didn't last long.  It's pretty much at zero now.

for now. i suspect that if/when China takes off again, Bitfinex will keep in step with Huobi/Okcoin, while Stamp may fall behind. just a hunch.

[Cassius]

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

So it's true. Doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down. Bulls and bears both make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

@people who believe (lot auction price) > (market price):  That's how I made my fortune.
I went around from one grocery store to the next, buying up sausages.  I assembled those sausages into ginormous wholesale lots, and sold them (at a substantial markup) to investors wishing to acquire huge lots of sausages without moving the market price.

So it's true. Doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down. Bulls and bears both make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

and thats how they make sausages.

[FattyMcButterpants]

i think it's pretty unrealistic to assume that these coins will be sold at a premium. however, any assumption that the coins will make their way to these horribly illiquid exchanges to chase arbitrage, is also misguided. there's a lot of variables at play.

[minerpumpkin]

We rally now?

I think about $1mm usd has to raise its bid by $18 in order to break the wall and rally past 627, which is a fib line.

Monkey tells me this is more likely to happen about 1 hour from now than it was earlier in the day, and if it doesn't, there is a ~.18 chance of fatigue dragging us toward 597 resistance before the next upward thrust.

Monkey says silver is just getting started.

No rally?

[edwardspitz]

WOW, LEAKED INFO ON BIDDERS FOR US MASHALL BITCOIN AUCTION


Barry Silbert, CEO for SecondMarket

Luther Lowe, director of public policy for Yelp

Malcolm Oluwasanmi, chairperson of Little Phoenix Investment Group

Fabrice Evangelista, quantitative arbitrage at BNP Paribas

Michal Handerhanm, co-founder and COO of Bitcoin Shop

Dave Goel, managing general partner of Matrix Capital Management

Dinuka Samarasinghe, investment professional

Chris DeMuth Jr., Wrangeley Capital

Fred Ehrsam, co-founder, Coinbase

Jonathan Disner, corporate counsel at DRW Trading Group

William Brindise, head investment manager at DigitalBTC

Michael Moro, director at SecondMarket

Jennifer R. Jacoby, lawyer at WilmerHale

Sam Lee, co-founder, Bitcoins Reserve

Avarus Corporation

PLUS YELP AND BNP Paribas (fourth largest bank in world)

source please. looks like a few start-up type people, and not as many wallstreeters as i was hoping for. can't complain though.

This just sample, 37 total

of which 27 are sure to go home empty handed

i'm starting to think people that said they coins might sell at a premium we're right!

I have a feeling one person is going to take the whole lot. The FAQs clarified the auction style.

I'm in the camp who suspects a premium being paid.

I have had the same thoughts. My plan was to buy right before the auction, because I speculated that bidders might end up paying more than the market value at the time of the auction:
1) Because they bid each other up (it will be an easy way to get at large stash and "clean coins" could make it more interesting for banks and other institutions)
2) because they will try to manipulate price down before the auction and push the price up after the auction.

So basically I expected that they might pay a premium at the auction because they know they will be able to get more when they sell them on. When the word gets out that they have payed a premium that will raise the price, so they wont even have to do much (if any) pumping.

I think it will be quite easy for them to manipulate the price. Especially if they work together. If they didn't know who each other are they now know thanks to the article . I guess it will be bad for the US gov if it turns out they have sold coins at half price.

I'm now thinking this train of thought may be a too speculative (also considering the auction rules), but it will definitely be interesting to what price they will end up paying.

Edit: Clarification

Your point about what is good or bad for the US Government seems to be off base.  What the fuck the US Govt. care if it generates 1 million or 100 million from the sale of bitcoins?  There are billions of dollars printed every month. 

I see your point but government cares if the public cares. Like when Gordon Brown sold off Britain's gold. I just had these thoughts when I first heard of the auction, but the amount of BTC is not that high and also the auction style does not really promote this scenario imo.

[FNG]

i think it's pretty unrealistic to assume that these coins will be sold at a premium. however, any assumption that the coins will make their way to these horribly illiquid exchanges to chase arbitrage, is also misguided. there's a lot of variables at play.

Maybe I need to post this again. Unrealistic? trying to gather a smaller lot on bitstamp by wiring your $18 million to a foreign country, drives the price up 10 fold, and nets a lot less coin

I can easily see them go for a 10-20% premium. Easily

[minerpumpkin]

This may have been answered multiple times now, but can we be sure to get to know the winners and the respective bidding amounts? Can they stay anonymous?

[KFR]

I doubt very much the USMS can keep any secrets whatsoever.

[edwardspitz]

We rally now?

I think about $1mm usd has to raise its bid by $18 in order to break the wall and rally past 627, which is a fib line.

Monkey tells me this is more likely to happen about 1 hour from now than it was earlier in the day, and if it doesn't, there is a ~.18 chance of fatigue dragging us toward 597 resistance before the next upward thrust.

Monkey says silver is just getting started.

I haven't done the math, but the other night when price went to 615 I noticed that a 600 BTC ask wall @Stamp was quickly pulled when traders started eating into it.

[JayJuanGee]

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I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price.

You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises.

It can be argued all ways.

This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said.          

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

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[JayJuanGee]

Nice! GoCoin should be more active... Coinbase and Bitbay shouldn't have monopol.

I thought that Circle would soon be coming into this space.... YET, many of us seem to be WAITING, patiently.... or somewhat patiently.    

[aminorex]

No rally?

Monkey thinks the situation just turned bearish on multiple time scales.  He's targeting 595 support for now.

[JayJuanGee]

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money )... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

That is NOT why you were attacked.  You were attacked b/c you failed to articulate any plan that made sense to anyone beyond yourself.. and even then, NOT clear if it made sense.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656657.0

I've attempted to make a quick response within that thread, and to also respond to the poll to the extent any of the answers come close to what is really happening here.

In essence, the mere fact that you spending a lot of time publicly discussing this matter in various threads seems to demonstrate that you do NOT really know the fuck what you are talking about or even that you have adequately analyzed or understood your own position nor your plan.

 I am NOT sure whether you have bad intents, so in that regard, I feel sorry for some of your ignorance... and lack of recognition of your own inabilities to know when to stop and when you likely need to spend some private time figuring out what you are doing and why you are doing it in order that you can explain.. to the extent that you end up continuing to post these kinds of matters in public threads....

Otherwise, you decisions regarding your investments or lack thereof in BTC or in other crypto-currencies are your own private concerns, and probably it would be better for everyone, including yourself, for you to keep your seemingly stupid-ass ill conceived and inadequately contemplated ideas to yourself... until they are better formulated.    That's just my sense of the situation, at the moment, so take it for what it is worth.. and if you are NOT ready, willing or able to understand or to accept my thoughts, then NO problem to just let my comments pass.

you didn't answer to a single argument... you just choose a personal attack path.. you are a joke.

To me, it seems somewhat ironic that i attempt to go through considerable lengths to explain the content of my posts and the various reasons for making negative comments regarding the contents of your various posts.  Your common rebuttal is that I merely am personally attacking you, which I believe I am striving NOT to do.  In any event, you seem to have some difficulties with engaging in logic and/or communications.  Some of the contents of this debate between us is likely progressing beyond anyone's ability to follow it.  I certainly am having my own troubles following it.  ONE of my main points, that i recall, is that you chose to sell 1/2 of your bitcoin stash NOW and to brag about your decision to be able to live off of your sale proceeds for two years, but through a multitude of postings, you have failed to explain your decision to be applicable to anyone beyond yourself, and why such a decision is NOT merely ludicrous.  And, instead, you suggest that I am NOT responding to some of your nonsense stream of consciousness content.