Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sickpig]

And, if it's not that, it's all of the new corporate mines that have popped up.  Generally, IMO, they're not interested in Bitcoin other than to load up on fiat, and since these operations are huge they're taking most of the newly mined coins and dumping them on the market for fiat.  In years past, the mining base was much more spread out and mining participants, on average, were more intereseted in building BTC reserves than the fiat equivalent.  This concept coupled with the fact that at low prices the daily volume was much greater meant that any new coins mined that did make it to market had little effect on the exchange rate.  Now, with higher price, lower volume, and corporate mines with no interest in holding BTC you get an ever increasing supply of fresh coins comparative to historical time frames.

That's an interesting postulation. Though if true, it's not necessarily a bad thing.

I'm total newbie in regard of trading / price discovering etc... but I always wondered: if someone is selling  someone else has to buy, am I right?

Yes.

ok thanks

what I really meant is: since the amount of new mined coins per day is something between 3000 and 5000 (*), do you really think this little volume will be so influential in moving down the price? 

(*) those days we're nearer to the upper bound due the growing global hashrate

[Richy_T]

ok thanks

what I really meant is: since the amount of new mined coins per day is something between 3000 and 5000 (*), do you really think this little volume will be so influential in moving down the price? 

(*) those days we're nearer to the upper bound due the growing global hashrate

It could be argued either way but after the last halving, the price rose though many thought it should have no effect.

When things are quiet like this, there's not a lot of people looking to buy so even a small increase in the supply could be enough to slow the upward effort. A steady climb is better overall though.

[elebit]

what I really meant is: since the amount of new mined coins per day is something between 3000 and 5000 (*), do you really think this little volume will be so influential in moving down the price? 

3000 coins is not dumped on the exchanges daily. Large parts (most?) of the coinbase is hoarded or sold in private.

Also please note that even if we can have short periods of more inflation due to the stepwise increase of the difficulty factor, it will be corrected.

[aminorex]

Hmm.  So now that the PBoC has begun to articulate a plan for integrating bitcoin into the Chinese economy, that should be bullish, right?
Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot.  Some pocket change from SR 1.0 bust is intimidating everyone. 
ShroomsKit is like a Sophoclean chorus to this drama.
Curious how the monkey seems almost to control everything...simia ex machina?

Source?

'
http://money.163.com/14/0619/13/9V3TB59B00253B0H.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[zimmah]

It depends if you actually wanted to win the auction. If I wanted to win Id put my bid somewhere between $600 and $630.

So you are pretty confident that the coins will be sold above the exchange rate? I can see arguments for both sides, but it's all very murky to me.

well, in a blind bid it only takes 1 person to feel they are worth more than the exchange rate to actually have them get sold for above exchange rate value.

So f only 1 person has any reason at all to percieve those coins as more valuable, they are.

I don't think it's such a longshot to expect 1 guy to bid above market price. You see $1000+ bids at localbitcoins all the time, even though the going price has been sub $600 for days/weeks now.

I think we'd be pleasantly surprised by this auction and i hope the bear market will reverse after it is know how much the coins sold for.

[sickpig]

what I really meant is: since the amount of new mined coins per day is something between 3000 and 5000 (*), do you really think this little volume will be so influential in moving down the price? 

3000 coins is not dumped on the exchanges daily. Large parts (most?) of the coinbase is hoarded or sold in private.

Also please note that even if we can have short periods of more inflation due to the stepwise increase of the difficulty factor, it will be corrected.

we're in violent agreement.

[oda.krell]

It depends if you actually wanted to win the auction. If I wanted to win Id put my bid somewhere between $600 and $630.

So you are pretty confident that the coins will be sold above the exchange rate? I can see arguments for both sides, but it's all very murky to me.

well, in a blind bid it only takes 1 person to feel they are worth more than the exchange rate to actually have them get sold for above exchange rate value.

So f only 1 person has any reason at all to percieve those coins as more valuable, they are.

I don't think it's such a longshot to expect 1 guy to bid above market price. You see $1000+ bids at localbitcoins all the time, even though the going price has been sub $600 for days/weeks now.

I think we'd be pleasantly surprised by this auction and i hope the bear market will reverse after it is know how much the coins sold for.

If localbitcoin prices are any indication, we could expect an average price of 800 to 900 currently.

One can hope...

[zimmah]

Well the price on localbitcoins is always a bit higher because sales take a while there usually and the sellers do not want to risk a sudden price increase leaving them unable to rebuy.

But, a blind auction means that people can not see the other bets, and people who want to really buy a lot of bitcoins without risking to lose their money on an exchange (especially after the mt gox fiasco) may actually bid more than what bitcoins are worth on bitstamp, just to be sure to get the bitcoins.

I am 95% sure we will see a price above the current bitstamp price. And i expect it to be at least 5% higher.

But not much more than 20% or so, most likely.

That still leaves a range of about 612 to 700 or so

[fonzie]

Nice dump@Stamp. Please keep up the good work!  

[JayJuanGee]

Dont miss the hole point , every day 80.000 people start to use btc. A network worth growts exponentially when you add more users. Hold your coins and buy some tagged btc to the fbi

Wow!!!!   From where do you get your statistics? 

Maybe every month we get 80k new users (and even that may be a stretch), but every day, I doubt it.

I believe that there is considerable difficulties in measuring exactly how many people are using or holding BTC and the extent to which BTC are distributed among the holders/users and the quantity of BTC that the holders/users control.

[byronbb]

Time for a dip?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

Time for a dip?

Time for a 3d macd crossover and resuming to the bear trend?

[aminorex]

Time for a dip?

monkey says intraday, up for an hour, daily, down all week.
monkey still loves silver.
monkey goes long usdjpy intraday.
monkey says vix down, spx up overnight, a little, then down more tomorrow.
monkey says long bond up on a daily basis
it's a monkey-pocalypse.



EDIT: monkey says bottom on 3 minute chart will be 18:35 US Eastern time, or else this is going down very hard indeed.

[Raystonn]

If I were going to place a bid on a blind auction to buy bitcoins, and the auction was going to be closed in a couple days, I would put a bid in at $541.00 or $551.00.  There seems to be good technical support at those areas and I would feel like there would be a good risk/reward ratio.  I'd feel like I'd be able to make some money on a trade (eventually) and/or it would be a good price for a long term hold as well.  If I didn't win I wouldn't be too disappointed.  If I did win, I'd feel pretty certain I'd be able to do well either trading out or holding.  Remember, I'd have to take out $200K out of money for the deposit that was otherwise working for me elsewhere, and the time-cost involved for the auction. 

Where would you place your blind bid today for any amount of bitcoin?

Nick

I'd place my bid high enough to trigger a massive bull market.  The small amount it would cost me would be well worth the huge spike in value for my entire portfolio.

[N12]

Finally I have found this article embodied in a gif.

[dropt]

Finally I have found this article embodied in a gif.
<snip>

Good for you.  I'd give you a cookie for your fine google skills if I could.

[JorgeStolfi]

Wow!!!!   From where do you get your statistics? 

Perhaps new addresses, from blockchain.info?

[TERA]