Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

The 0% fees surely are the main reason for the higher volume, but that does not make the volume "fake".  Fake volume is transactions where both parties are the same entity.  If the two parties are distinct competing entities, it is not fake.

While I have no proof that Huobi's volume is legit, if it is fake it is very well done.  OKCoin's has a ~10% component that looks fake.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

Funny, I have seen quite the opposite in general, although there are possible exceptions (the March/13 jump being one).  OkCoin and Huobi change fast, have a very small spread, and track each other very closely, within a dollar or less; while Bitstamp changes slowly, in coarser jumps, and has a very wide spread.

[oda.krell]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

[TERA]

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

I used to think that all of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms were predetermined, but when was watching the crash at $340 (which seemed to just be getting started), and then suddenly I see the most random and largest bullish engulfing candle ever seen in my life come out of nowhere, and I find out it was seconds-minutes after a Chinese news article was released, I had to reconsider.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

what is happening now is a rally between holders to sell without causing any panic, the book order is really thin with few thousands BTC at the Bid side while there is more than 12 million coins out there, do the math.

11 million as Satoshi is in for the long haul.

Auction is only two days away, so it is quite feasible that coins are being dumped to depress the market "reference" price ahead of bidding.

depressing? is that the right word?

if you are not willing to pay the market price and dumping coins on the market to bid lower...well, then the current market price is not right.

let us see then how much are they willing to pay.

I say 500.

I say its the most stupid forecast and explanation I ever heard.

well, it is even more stupid to think that someone is dumping coins to depress the "reference" price.

What is stupid about dumping coins to depress the reference point? There is nothing stupid about that.

you can manipulate the "reference" price, but how do you manipulate sealed bids?

what happens if you win the auction with 400 $ bid, or if there is not enough interest to buy the coins at all?

By making the assumption that the sealed bids have a relationship with the market price.

HELLO..... Of course sealed bids are gonna relate to the market price, and they will relate to the market price that day 6/26 (tomorrow)  NOT the market price today and NOT the market price 3 years ago, yet the bids will also relate to what price bidders expect bitcoins to become 3 months to 6 months to 1 year into the future.  Bidders are going to have their individualized assessments concerning how much to bid, and the price on 6/26 will be relevant to that assessment. 

I am NOT any kind of sophisticated investor, so I do NOT know exactly what they are thinking, but if I had enough money to buy all of the coins, I would make 10 staggered bids and those staggered bids would be based on BTC market price at the time of my bid, towards the end of the auction time, and they would be staggered in approximately 5.5% increments between about 80% of market price and 135% of market price.   At about the end of the auction, if I was NOT restricted from doing such, I would have a press release announcing what strategy I employed, and if I did NOT win any of the bids, then I would expect that there would be 10 bids that were higher than my highest bid.

[JayJuanGee]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

[fonzie]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

[blatchcorn]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

LOL I cannot believe you are falling for this perfectly timed bear trap.  It is so obvious

[simmo77]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

It is good for sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

Well, I'm holding, but want to buy some more so I've just sent some more money to the exchange.... so you can just about guarantee a recovery very soon (before my account gets credited, as usual)  

[Dragonkiller]

Bear troll and bull troll trolling each other. Perfect 

[Ivanhoe]

Bulls and bears at this moment

[empowering]

[Miz4r]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

How did you arrive at those percentages that 90% of OKcoin's volume should be discounted and 80% of Huobi's? Seems kinda arbitrary to me. Why not 50% or 30%?

[JayJuanGee]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time.  I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

[fonzie]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time.  I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

How much longer until you´re 100% invested in Bitcoin? Which is the destiny of every delusional bulltard...  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[thezerg]

I'd guess most bitfinex money comes in via BTC.  So borrow the USD but don't buy coin.  Puts temporary downward pressure on the price as people sell BTC to loan USD to you.   Its AS IF a manipulator sold coin but only costs 1-2% of the value of the coin, and you don't have to go short when you are bullish on bitcoin and about to bit on a block of 3000.  I'm not saying that somebody has been doing this for a month+... more likely just in the last week or two.  They are eating up all the leverage that gets unwound plus a little more.

I would not be surprised if this leverage unwinds a bit after the auction.  Although if I'm right, releasing the USD back to the owners might encourage them to buy a bit (if only to get out of BFX or b/c the price is low), sparking a rally that would encourage actual leverage.

[zimmah]

can someone explain me what the swaps are and why they are significant?

[JayJuanGee]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

Crashing to $80 or even to sub$450 seems to be a lot less likely than rallying to $700 plus and then staying above $700 for a considerable amount of time.  I will grant you however that the next about 36 hours could likely continue to be fairly bearish and there could be some downward momentum, pressures, yet that is NOT certain, and with current news and momentum, I do NOT see below $500s in that time-frame... But if we did see below $500 in the next 36 hours, I will hope that I have some fiat on hand in order to buy.

How much longer until you´re 100% invested in Bitcoin? Which is the destiny of every delusional bulltard...  

I am kind of flattered that a seemingly troll-tard, like you Fonzie, seems to be interested in my investment particulars.

I believe that it depends upon how a person such as me estimates my investments.  I do monitor my investments, but my means for assessing my particulars evolves... and my level of disclosure evolves.   

I have quite a variety of investments, and some of my investments are more liquid than others and some of my fiat comes available and is ready to be invested into something.. which in recent months, newly available investment fiat has mostly been going into BTC.

Probably only between about 5-10% of my current mostly liquid investments are in bitcoin.  A large majority of my newly investment available fiat is going into BTC (attempting to acquire BTC somewhat strategically on the dips).  If BTC appreciates in value faster than my other assets, then it will take on a larger percentage of my total liquid portfolio.  I may diversify out of BTC on some sudden spurts upward (if such were to occur in the next 6 to 36 months) in order to increase my overall BTC holdings, but I expect that if BTC values appreciate faster than my other quasi-liquid holdings, I will allow BTC to occupy a larger percentage of all my quasi-liquid investments. 

I am somewhat doubtful that the proportion of my total liquid holdings would get above 70% in BTC, but never say never.  We have to see how BTC prices play out in the upcoming years, and if there were sudden appreciations in BTC, then likely I would allow it to occupy a greater portion of my liquid assets.

On the other hand, if BTC prices remain flat or decrease in value in comparison with my other quasi-liquid investments, I may reconsider the percentage of new fiat that I am putting into BTC. 

Nonetheless, in the near term, I am planning to continue to invest into BTC, and even without considerable appreciation in BTC prices, I expect that BTC may come to clearly occupy 10% or even more of my total liquid investment holdings.  I am continuing to assess and consider my strategy(ies) in this regard.


How about you, Fonzie?  What is your investment into BTC as compared with other assets?  What kinds of percentages do you have?  How do you consider your  BTC holdings, as compared with other kinds of assets that you hold or control?

[Bronstad]

That's quite commendable of you JayJuanGee to actually try and have a conversation with Trollzie, instead of just telling him to fuck off.