Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCfan1]

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? 

lunch break?

[wiak2]

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? 

World Cup, Brazil-Chile first half?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Kramerc]

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? 

Work extra to buy a bitcoin. Time better spent than monitoring the chinese exchanges. And who knows, one day you might actually be grateful for it.

[JorgeStolfi]

Work extra to buy a bitcoin. Time better spent than monitoring the chinese exchanges. And who knows, one day you might actually be grateful for it.

If you trade with bitcoin, you should watch the Chinese exchanges most of all. 

[Krabby]

Really though, if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep? 

Solutions:

reversibility?

multisig?

tracking?  (that's not gonna happen is it?)

I keep both.. All I do is turn to them and say,

"if you kill me, nobody will have access to my bitcoins. I am worth so much more alive since only I know the password. If you let me go immediately I will consider (a) giving you a few satoshis, (b) not going to the police, pressing charges and having you sent to prison. The longer you delay, the less likely a and b will happen.."

But in reality I will have my bitcoins go to family or friends if I die, and I would never give them any satoshis no matter how quickly they release me, and will do my best to land them in prison no matter what..

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZXwdB4Mj0M&feature=player_detailpage#t=13

[Kramerc]

Work extra to buy a bitcoin. Time better spent than monitoring the chinese exchanges. And who knows, one day you might actually be grateful for it.

If you trade with bitcoin, you should watch the Chinese exchanges most of all. 

But you don't trade bitcoin, do you?

[Raystonn]

I'm not talking about the bootstrapping.  I'm talking about any coin that enters a purely PoS phase with nothing else required to confirm transactions.  An infinite number of coins can enter such a phase, diluting any value stored in them to the point of worthlessness.  All PoS coins (any coin that enters a pure PoS phase) will trend to $0 because of this, as more PoS coins come into existence.

PoW coins do not suffer from this problem as they all compete for limited mining resources.  Thus PoW coins actually do provide a good store of value.

I'm not a fan of PoS but I disagree. It is like taking off the restrictions for fractions of bitcoins making them infinitely divisible and then saying that will make them worthless. You can have intricate rules for any coin on how much a block will reward providing infinite possibilities for altcoins.

The value of coins is the trust in the system technology wise, its current utility and how it will develop in the future.

The relative value of any particular PoS coin is directly proportional to the size of the network of the coin you are measuring, divided by the size of the networks of all PoS coins.  Since the number of PoS coins is not limited, and the network size of each of them is not limited by competing for a scarce resource such as energy, the denominator will grow much more quickly than the numerator, leading value to $0 over the long term.

The relative value of any particular PoW coin is directly proportional to the size of the network of the coin you are measuring, divided by the size of the networks of all PoW coins.  Since the network size of each PoW coin is limited by competing for a scarce resource (miners and energy), the size of the networks of all PoW coins is limited.  When a new PoW coin is created, it must take from the pool of miners/energy by reducing the size of another coin's network to increase its own.  This means the relative value of any particular PoW coin is much more resistant to being drained as new PoW coins pop up.  The new coins will have to fight for resources with the existing coins, which is generally very difficult to succeed at versus large coins such as Bitcoin.  Thus, well established PoW coins will generally have a stable value regardless of the introduction of new PoW coins.

[aminorex]

if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep? 

My solution is XMR.  If my balance can not be known, I can give up a throw-away wallet.  If the fact that I have a balance can not be known, I will never be targeted for extortion.

[Patel]

if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep? 

My solution is XMR.  If my balance can not be known, I can give up a throw-away wallet.  If the fact that I have a balance can not be known, I will never be targeted for extortion.

+1

Noone being able to know your balance is one of the best features of XMR. The large liquidity available is the second.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[raid_n]

The relative value of any particular PoS coin is directly proportional to the size of the network of the coin you are measuring, divided by the size of the networks of all PoS coins.  Since the number of PoS coins is not limited, and the network size of each of them is not limited by competing for a scarce resource such as energy, the denominator will grow much more quickly than the numerator, leading value to $0 over the long term.

The relative value of any particular PoW coin is directly proportional to the size of the network of the coin you are measuring, divided by the size of the networks of all PoW coins.  Since the network size of each PoW coin is limited by competing for a scarce resource (miners and energy), the size of the networks of all PoW coins is limited.  When a new PoW coin is created, it must take from the pool of miners/energy by reducing the size of another coin's network to increase its own.  This means the relative value of any particular PoW coin is much more resistant to being drained as new PoW coins pop up.  The new coins will have to fight for resources with the existing coins, which is generally very difficult to succeed at versus large coins such as Bitcoin.  Thus, well established PoW coins will generally have a stable value regardless of the introduction of new PoW coins.

Of course there is an unbounded number of potential altcoins for both models, PoW and PoS and since PoW is, by design, very work intensive you will soon reach actual limits because resources are bounded.
Nevertheless PoW [Edit] of course i mean PoS [/Edit] also has resource bounds (network transmission, disk space, etc) so the models are actually equivalent, one merely allowing more concurrent coins than the other.

But this has absolutely nothing to do with coin valuation. By the logic of your argument an almost infinite number of small coin networks renders any large coin network of 0 value (say a 1 million user network in relation to 10^30 networks of coins with 10 users each also effectively leads to a value of practically 0 for the 1 million user network)

[YogoH]

But this has absolutely nothing to do with coin valuation. By the logic of your argument an almost infinite number of small coin networks renders any large coin network of 0 value (say a 1 million user network in relation to 10^30 networks of coins with 10 users each also effectively leads to a value of practically 0 for the 1 million user network)

Wouldn't metcalfe's law disagree?

[Richy_T]

In short, Satoshi was clearly thinking long-term with Bitcoin, or he got very, very lucky.  Either way, we are all very much in his debt for getting it so right on the first go.

Every time someone suggests a flaw with Bitcoin, it usually turns out that if you reason it through, the flaw is either not a flaw or an essential outcome of a very important principle. Satoshi is (or are) certainly a genius by standard methods but more importantly seems to be very, very intimate with the factors at play so as to have avoided pitfalls in woolly thinking. The only real flaw I have been able to ascertain is the 51% issue and that is largely only an issue because of mining pools. I wonder if Satoshi never considered that that might be an issue or did and decided to run with it.

[raid_n]

But this has absolutely nothing to do with coin valuation. By the logic of your argument an almost infinite number of small coin networks renders any large coin network of 0 value (say a 1 million user network in relation to 10^30 networks of coins with 10 users each also effectively leads to a value of practically 0 for the 1 million user network)

Wouldn't metcalfe's law disagree?

Why would it? that law actually further strengthens my argument ( a large network is more valuable and not proportionate at all to many small networks)
OP Is pulling statements out of his behind without any sensible logic behind them

[edit] just a small joke:

raid_n's law:
"Within any sufficiently large forum there will be someone postulating their own law"

since sufficiently large is unbounded you won't disprove me

[JayJuanGee]

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? 

World Cup, Brazil-Chile first half?

Church

working in the military

college class

[JorgeStolfi]

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? 

World Cup, Brazil-Chile first half?

Church
working in the military
college class

Starting soon after midnight, China time?  (But 1 pm here in Brazil  )

[JayJuanGee]

Really though, if someone is holding you... and saying, "your bitcoins or your life", which one would you prefer to keep? 

Solutions:

reversibility?

multisig?

tracking?  (that's not gonna happen is it?)

I keep both.. All I do is turn to them and say,

"if you kill me, nobody will have access to my bitcoins. I am worth so much more alive since only I know the password. If you let me go immediately I will consider (a) giving you a few satoshis, (b) not going to the police, pressing charges and having you sent to prison. The longer you delay, the less likely a and b will happen.."

But in reality I will have my bitcoins go to family or friends if I die, and I would never give them any satoshis no matter how quickly they release me, and will do my best to land them in prison no matter what..

 

yeah.. it's all good in theory, and if you are getting your ideas from TV.. or Fox news...

Likely if your fingers are being chopped off (or some other means of coercion), the theoretical becomes more real....

[aminorex]

The price in China suddenly stabilized and was flat for 45 minutes straight, and volume fell to very low levels -- even though trade is usually still strong at this hour. And now trade is picking up again.

How strange. Does anyone know of some phenomenon that lasts almost exactly 45 minutes? 

World Cup, Brazil-Chile first half?

Church
working in the military
college class

Starting soon after midnight, China time?  (But 1 pm here in Brazil  )

Typical human copulation?  (Probably in both China and Brazil.)

[JayJuanGee]

Work extra to buy a bitcoin. Time better spent than monitoring the chinese exchanges. And who knows, one day you might actually be grateful for it.

If you trade with bitcoin, you should watch the Chinese exchanges most of all. 

But you don't trade bitcoin, do you?

I would think that it is very difficult to trade with bitcoin if you do NOT have any.

What Jorge does is:

"imagine a bitcoin"  then "imagine..."  then "imagine...."

Lot's of imagining going on.