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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26382286 times)
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Dragonkiller
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June 29, 2014, 07:24:37 PM


They're going for a premium, surprise surprise!!

Honestly though, I don't think anyone with some sense in their head thought they would go below the market price.

I don't think anyone with sense in their head thinks they are going for $1800 a pop either. Roll Eyes Who is this guy anyway? I can't imagine he's serious with a statement like that...

Core developer.
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vleroybrown
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June 29, 2014, 07:26:19 PM


lol, that's a little too optimistic.

I don't think it's less than $600, but i don't think it's over $800 either. But on the other hand, they go on localbitcoin for over $1000 sometimes so it's actually maybe not that much of a stretch.

But it would be nice if it was that high though.



Were did the coins go?  Anybody getting a track on that?  https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX
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June 29, 2014, 07:28:27 PM


lol, that's a little too optimistic.

I don't think it's less than $600, but i don't think it's over $800 either. But on the other hand, they go on localbitcoin for over $1000 sometimes so it's actually maybe not that much of a stretch.

But it would be nice if it was that high though.



Were did the coins go?  Anybody getting a track on that?  https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX


not yet send, unless this is the address of the current owner who bought them all. nevermind the date does not match, they have not been send yet.

https://blockchain.info/address/1Ez69SnzzmePmZX3WpEzMKTrcBF2gpNQ55
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June 29, 2014, 07:31:47 PM


lol, that's a little too optimistic.

I don't think it's less than $600, but i don't think it's over $800 either. But on the other hand, they go on localbitcoin for over $1000 sometimes so it's actually maybe not that much of a stretch.

But it would be nice if it was that high though.



I wouldn't put too much into numbers that you see on Localbitcoins. Anyone can set up two accounts on Localbitcoins, and as long as the trade is carried out through their site, it will register as having happened. So, if you were interested in people thinking there was demand at > $1k...... Wink
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June 29, 2014, 07:38:38 PM

$1800 is a bit high. I was thinking 750 - 1100 for most of them. Although it would not surprise me if one block did sell for $1800 just as a publicity stunt.
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June 29, 2014, 07:41:07 PM


He is very optimistic, but it will not move like 3x, but may be 100-200 usd rise we can expect.
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June 29, 2014, 07:42:09 PM

As the price of these coins are the most important thing this year (considering it's the only thing people talked about the last 10 days) the price will go down or up by huge amounts when we know the outcome, right?

Right?
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June 29, 2014, 07:42:20 PM

I'm not talking about announcing changes to the deposit methods.  I'm talking about the fact that the Chinese exchange operators could have gotten together 4-5 months ago, had a meeting, and then published an official joint statement saying something to the effect of, "China has not banned bitcoin [ ... ].  Whatever you read, whatever you hear, it is not banned [ ... ]  We will continue to work around the deposit issues with the PBOC.
They said that, and even officers from the People's Bank of China said that.  One officer said that, for them, bitcoins are like stamps.  And OBVIOUSLY bitcoin was never banned, otherwise the exchanges would have been shut down immediately.

(But note that the PBoC is only one of the five government agencies that issued the December decree.  The PBoC worries only about stability of the yuan and of the financial system, and is the agency that deals with banks and payment processors; so any decisions about these entities are issued trough the PBoC, out of respect for the government's organogram.  Like central banks in many other countries, the PBoC does not regulate the bitcoin exchanges, and apparently would rather not to -- they are too small for them.  Other Chinese government agencies worry about money laundering, bribing, foreign subversion, illegal trade, tax evasion, etc.; and they certainly could shut down the exchanges, without going through the PBoC, if they decided to.)

[ ... ] and will never be banned.
How could they say that?  Even the US government may ban bitcoin next week...

Also do not believe any Chinese FUD related to our eventual exchanges demise.  Our Chinese exchanges [ .. ] will never shut down.
One Chinese exchange, at least, shut down because of the PBoC restrictions.  The CEOs of the other exchanges were quite worried that they would have to shut down, several times, but when they found workarounds they immediately reassured their clients and the press.  And they STILL may be shut down eventually.

Also, OKCoin's volume is skewed based on 0% fees and HFT only, but it's not fake per se.  But yes, it is a little misleading for sure.  They could have offically published this [ ... ] on official sites like Coindesk.
Huobi's CEO said so himself on his very first interview by CoinDesk.  (Which, by teh way, is certainly not an "official site" of anything.  More like a press release distribution service.)

They could have offically published this in English for the Westerners.
Come on! Why should they?

FUD is supposed to be "Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt"
* Fear is the proper thing to feel when you know of a possible future event that may be bad for you.
* Uncertainty is what you necessarily have when you do not have enough information to be certain.
* Doubt is what you should always have about any statement by someone who wants your money.
So it is good to have some FUD now and then.  FUD is always better than SHT (Sales Hype and Tripe).
 
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June 29, 2014, 07:42:37 PM

See bullet 10.

The USMS will contact the winning and losing bidders directly. The USMS will not publicly
release any information pertaining to the auction process or results.


Ref: http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf
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June 29, 2014, 07:42:57 PM


They're going for a premium, surprise surprise!!

Honestly though, I don't think anyone with some sense in their head thought they would go below the market price.

I don't think anyone with sense in their head thinks they are going for $1800 a pop either. Roll Eyes Who is this guy anyway? I can't imagine he's serious with a statement like that...

Core developer.
He's not on there: https://bitcoin.org/en/development

Not that being a core dev would make you an auction expert, anyway.

I'm an auction expert and all 10 blocks will go for a minimum of 5k USD per BTC because I like the thought of other people doing what I would like them to.
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June 29, 2014, 07:43:29 PM


He is very optimistic, but it will not move like 3x, but may be 100-200 usd rise we can expect.

I'd be very surprised if the highest priced one sold above $800. I don't think the market will move to the sale price either because of the sale.

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June 29, 2014, 07:43:42 PM

As the price of these coins are the most important thing this year (considering it's the only thing people talked about the last 10 days) the price will go down or up by huge amounts when we know the outcome, right?

Right?

Depends how close the auction prices are to the exchange prices. May be that they are pretty close already, and so the market wouldn't have to move much to meet them. Still not sure if we will actually get official word on the prices?
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June 29, 2014, 07:46:35 PM


He is very optimistic, but it will not move like 3x, but may be 100-200 usd rise we can expect.

I'd be very surprised if the highest priced one sold above $800. I don't think the market will move to the sale price either because of the sale.



That would make this thing even more retarded than it already is.
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June 29, 2014, 07:49:40 PM

He is very optimistic, but it will not move like 3x, but may be 100-200 usd rise we can expect.
I'd be very surprised if the highest priced one sold above $800. I don't think the market will move to the sale price either because of the sale.
Businesses and professional auction-goers will probably bid below market.  But we cannot rule out much higher bids by rich individual investors.  People sometimes waste a lot more money in unexplainable whims.  Wink
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June 29, 2014, 07:52:37 PM

Who is this guy anyway? I can't imagine he's serious with a statement like that...
Core developer.

Oh, you mean one of those koolade-drinking nutter Bitcoin cultists.

What would he know. He's not a real trading expert like Warren Buffet.  Roll Eyes

 Smiley Wink Cheesy Grin Roll Eyes
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June 29, 2014, 07:57:33 PM


He is very optimistic, but it will not move like 3x, but may be 100-200 usd rise we can expect.

I'd be very surprised if the highest priced one sold above $800. I don't think the market will move to the sale price either because of the sale.



That would make this thing even more retarded than it already is.

not sure about retarded, but I think it's being overrated.
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June 29, 2014, 08:00:39 PM


Explanation
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June 29, 2014, 08:02:16 PM

Who is this guy anyway? I can't imagine he's serious with a statement like that...
Core developer.

Oh, you mean one of those koolade-drinking nutter Bitcoin cultists.

What would he know. He's not a real trading expert like Warren Buffet.  Roll Eyes

 Smiley Wink Cheesy Grin Roll Eyes
Actually, Bitcoin devs tend to be anything but Bitcoin cultists. See Gavin Andresen, Mike Hearn, Peter Todd. Typically reasonable people who are healthily skeptical yet optimistic with regard to Bitcoin long-term success. You know, "it's just an experiment!" type of mentality.
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June 29, 2014, 08:04:36 PM

I'd be very surprised if the highest priced one sold above $800. I don't think the market will move to the sale price either because of the sale.

Each auctioned block was 3k bitcoins. That's a lot of money, but it's what Bitpay sells in about a week if we are to believe their numbers. I would expect them to be happy to sell to you at a percent or two over spot. I mean, it would be practically free money for them. So I find it completely unreasonable that someone would pay even $800.

Not that I think it matters very much. We already have an inkling about what players are active in the Bitcoin space and what the volumes involved are, at least to an order of magnitude. The only reasonable argument for a post-auction rally would be that any one of the losing players ended up at an exchange instead, seeing as they had already done the due diligence on the deal.
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June 29, 2014, 08:05:51 PM

Who is this guy anyway? I can't imagine he's serious with a statement like that...
Core developer.

Oh, you mean one of those koolade-drinking nutter Bitcoin cultists.

What would he know. He's not a real trading expert like Warren Buffet.  Roll Eyes

 Smiley Wink Cheesy Grin Roll Eyes

Look, you can market buy 3000 coins right now on Bitfinex with a top price of $632. Remind me again why someone would pay $1800 for a single lot? Yeah, that doesn't sound like a nutter/cultist at all....
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