Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

USGOV Antivirus
Threat detected: "WALLET.DAT"
Threat classification: Resource misuse
Action taken: Deleted

[600watt]

USGOV Antivirus
Threat detected: "WALLET.DAT"
Threat classification: Resource misuse
Action taken: Deleted

 

[empowering]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

It's just the timing that is hard to nail down.  

Is it really?  What is the longest lived fiat currency in history?  USD, since 1971.  Others more clever than I have made the argument that with a sample size of 1 the most likely future span of an event with duration is the historical duration.  From this we take the least-assumption prior estimate that the central tendency for future lifetime of the USD is 43 years.  Then we observe the likelihood of a terminal event for USD by examining the likelihood of terminal events for comparables, and adjust distribution accordingly.  The likelihood of terminal events for comparables are conditioned on several factors, such as debt/GDP ratio, approval ratings of the central government, employment and real inflation trends, &c.

My best effort result has the terminal point of USD between 2017 and 2025 with 95% probability.  The conclusion is sensitive to the choice of conditioning factors and comparables, however.

(some would argue)

Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency... At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value. (Fiat money=intrinsic value of zero)

(not I though- I know what you mean... but just thought I would throw it in there)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dragonkiller]

The Silk Road government auction coins are on the move! All to one address. Single buyer?

[Richy_T]

The Silk Road government auction coins are on the move! All to one address. Single buyer?

That would be impressive but possibly they are sweeping the funds from cold storage to a hot wallet.

[aminorex]

Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency...

Sorry, I used fiat but should have said debt-based.  USD originated in the 18th century, but was essentially a rebranding of the spanish real, so you could say it originated in the 17th.  The USD as I consider it originated in 1971 when Nixon terminated its peg to gold.

[Dragonkiller]

The Silk Road government auction coins are on the move! All to one address. Single buyer?

Could you link (I don't know the address by heart  )

https://blockchain.info/address/1Ez69SnzzmePmZX3WpEzMKTrcBF2gpNQ55

No fee 

[wachtwoord]

Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency...

Sorry, I used fiat but should have said debt-based.

It's funny that before 1971 all were non-debt based and now they are all debt based ...

[beetcoin]

damn, i wish there were more transparency.. all 29k coins changing to one address .. sounds like one giant whale wanted to give a big fuck you to everyone else.

[wachtwoord]

The Silk Road government auction coins are on the move! All to one address. Single buyer?

Could you link (I don't know the address by heart  )

https://blockchain.info/address/1Ez69SnzzmePmZX3WpEzMKTrcBF2gpNQ55

No fee 

Bad news: They have the keys
Good news: In the case of 1 buyer the price paid will be significantly higher.

[aminorex]

Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency...

Sorry, I used fiat but should have said debt-based.

It's funny that before 1971 all were non-debt based and now they are all debt based ...

Never forget that it's just a beta release of an experimental system.

[jmw74]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

It's just the timing that is hard to nail down. 

Is it really?  What is the longest lived fiat currency in history?  USD, since 1971.  Others more clever than I have made the argument that with a sample size of 1 the most likely future span of an event with duration is the historical duration.  From this we take the least-assumption prior estimate that the central tendency for future lifetime of the USD is 43 years.  Then we observe the likelihood of a terminal event for USD by examining the likelihood of terminal events for comparables, and adjust distribution accordingly.  The likelihood of terminal events for comparables are conditioned on several factors, such as debt/GDP ratio, approval ratings of the central government, employment and real inflation trends, &c.

My best effort result has the terminal point of USD between 2017 and 2025 with 95% probability.  The conclusion is sensitive to the choice of conditioning factors and comparables, however.

The lifespan isn't really the issue, it's what happens at the end of life.  The government could declare tomorrow that the "dollar" is old and busted, and the "odlar" is the new hotness.  Except the two currencies work exactly the same way, nothing really happens.  Everyone just exchanges one for the other and life continues just as before.

Also I saw it pointed out in another thread that superpowers have historically never hyperinflated away their currency.  So if it doesn't blow up that way, how will it?

[Dragonkiller]

The Silk Road government auction coins are on the move! All to one address. Single buyer?

Could you link (I don't know the address by heart  )

https://blockchain.info/address/1Ez69SnzzmePmZX3WpEzMKTrcBF2gpNQ55

No fee 

Bad news: They have the keys
Good news: In the case of 1 buyer the price paid will be significantly higher.

Yes, I am pretty sure it is a single buyer. I predicted this before the auction as a single buyer looking for 30,000 coins would be willing to pay a higher premium (due to slippage) compared to someone looking for 3,000 coins.

[hmmmstrange]

All have been transferred to 1 address. https://blockchain.info/address/1a8LDh3qtCdMFAgRXzMrdvB8w1EG4h1Xi

[xyzzy099]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

It's just the timing that is hard to nail down.  

Is it really?  What is the longest lived fiat debt-based currency in history?  USD, since 1971.  Others more clever than I have made the argument that with a sample size of 1 the most likely future span of an event with duration is the historical duration.  From this we take the least-assumption prior estimate that the central tendency for future lifetime of the USD is 43 years.  Then we observe the likelihood of a terminal event for USD by examining the likelihood of terminal events for comparables, and adjust distribution accordingly.  The likelihood of terminal events for comparables are conditioned on several factors, such as debt/GDP ratio, approval ratings of the central government, employment and real inflation trends, &c.

My best effort result has the terminal point of USD between 2017 and 2025 with 95% probability.  The conclusion is sensitive to the choice of conditioning factors and comparables, however.

I would be interested in seeing more detail on this calculation.

Also, it has been my observation that whenever the current 'reserve currency' is replaced, it does not happen because the old reserve currency suffered a terminal event...  For example, the previous 'reserve currency' was ostensibly the British Pound, which is still considered to be in a non-terminal state, isn't it?

[Richy_T]

It's funny that before 1971 all were non-debt based and now they are all debt based ...

It was basically the biggest heist(s) ever. Before you could exchange money for gold so the gold was effectively yours. After, nada. (Note: I am not an advocate of gold backed currencies in particular but this was still theft)

And now the German govt can't even get the US govt to let them look at their gold.

That was 4 1/2ish decades ago now. Things have not got any better.

[cAPSLOCK]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

It's just the timing that is hard to nail down. 

cAPSLOCK, of course sensible people hope for a soft landing, but is it not also sensible to prepare for a hard landing?  Just as likely  to happen I think.  Civil unrest is escalating all around the world.  You are not immune. If it doesn't bear thinking about, perhaps it bears thinking about. 

In fact I do think about this and do prepare for a "hard landing".  And I do think the US (among others) is headed for trouble.

My point is to say there will be no USA in 20 years is a naive statement.  The USA has far too much power, momentum and wealth to go that quickly.  I am not saying it isn't breaking.  But I am saying it will not fail that fast.

[Richy_T]

The lifespan isn't really the issue, it's what happens at the end of life.  The government could declare tomorrow that the "dollar" is old and busted, and the "odlar" is the new hotness.  Except the two currencies work exactly the same way, nothing really happens.  Everyone just exchanges one for the other and life continues just as before.

I wonder why no government has ever thought of that before. 

[Krabby]

Just wait until China drop their US bonds and the USD is no longer the world reserve currency.