Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

So, playing with margin has been fun, but now all it says is "System buy limit reached"

Is this a normal thing? Or am I getting zhou-tonged?

Whats your margin level?  10:1

using metatrader? No. using btc.sx

How many orders. Just closed a bunch of shorts, now can't place any longs.

[1715310050]

1715310050

[1715310050]

1715310050

[1715310050]

1715310050

[1715310050]

1715310050

[ShroomsKit]

So today we had two major retailers announce that they're taking bitcoin and we're now lower value than we were 24 hours ago. This market is brutal.

2 major retailers announce they use Bitcoin. Which is huge. Price does nothing.
Fbi announces 30k coins go to 1 bidder. Which is no problem. Price crashes.

[hyphymikey]

So, playing with margin has been fun, but now all it says is "System buy limit reached"

Is this a normal thing? Or am I getting zhou-tonged?

It was telling me that the last 2 days. Pretty much there is no more "loans" available, and that all the longs available have been taken. I had to wait until someone sold off when we dropped to 640 the first time earlier today to be able to go long. You just have to try it from time to time and hope you catch it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

the ebb - its so low

But whats the monkeys take on it?

monkey is weakly bullish on the hourly scale, bullish on daily with minor support at 635 major at 443 resistance 800, wavering on weekly, bullish on monthly.

monkey wants this to be the overnight bottom, right here.

I'm kinda teed-off at the monkey right now, because he has me so short equities and long volatility.  Nice silver call though.

[shmadz]

So, playing with margin has been fun, but now all it says is "System buy limit reached"

Is this a normal thing? Or am I getting zhou-tonged?

It was telling me that the last 2 days. Pretty much there is no more "loans" available, and that all the longs available have been taken. I had to wait until someone sold off when we dropped to 640 the first time earlier today to be able to go long. You just have to try it from time to time and hope you catch it.

Thanks, guess I'll keep trying, but it's really frustrating.

[Newbie1022]

My take -- litecoin, although it isn't bitcoin, sell off on btc-e spooked some hands. Add on the fact that around the same time btc-e was having an inexplicable sell off (although much more modestly) of bitcoins and the other markets had to respond. What is unclear to me is how and why arbitrageurs haven't narrowed the margin between markets yet -- I expected that to occur faster. Anyways, the markets seem to be responding to each other rather than to extraneous real world matters. In the real world, bitcoin has had a fantastic day, today... like an amazingly fantastic day.

I'm buying!!!!! and buying and buying and buying... did I mention that I am buying?

[Torque]

Looking like a clever LTC bear trap to me.

[mooncake]

On the other hand, in economic crises and hyperinflation times, the austerity measures that neocons have convinced nations to use are precisely designed to trasfer wealth from ordinary citizens to the banks and big financial players.  If such a crisis comes, can bitcoin (assuming it succeeds) save our wealth from being taken that way?  I don't think that will work. For one thing among many, in a crisis most people need to take money out of investment funds and savings in order to survive; so the value of bitcoin is likely to drop, due to diminished demand, rather than increase.  

On the other hand, in economic crises and hyperinflation times, the austerity measures that neocons have convinced nations to use are precisely designed to trasfer wealth from ordinary citizens to the banks and big financial players.  If such a crisis comes, can bitcoin (assuming it succeeds) save our wealth from being taken that way?  I don't think that will work. For one thing among many, in a crisis most people (do not) need to take money out of (wallets) investment funds and savings in order to survive; so the value of bitcoin is likely to (rise)drop, due to (increased)diminished demand, rather than (diminished)increase.  

In hyperinflation times, sovereign currency decreases its value fast. People naturally turn to inflation hedges like gold, RE and art pieces. In time to come, people will view bitcoin or its successor as an additional inflation hedge. With demand, the value will rise, not drop.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

Inflation and hyperinflation are a big inconvenience, waste a lot of time, make things inefficient and stressful; but people can finda ways to adapt and survive, and the country continues to function without becoming a Mad Max world.

I suspect deflation will predominate for some time.  Presently the bankers and administration seek to undermine the dollar to boost exports and inflate risk assets, but collapsing productivity and debt expansion in Europe and Japan are making the U.S. look healthy in contrast, which is likely to push the dollar back up relative to other majors. These are not
mutually exclusive because all the majors are inflating their currencies massively, in tandem:  They all have far more debt than ithey can service, so money has to get cheaper and cheaper (within the domestic market no less than it needs to do the same) in Europe and Japan.  Thus bankers can carry incredible sums on their balance sheets, to bid up risk assets through a series of proxies.  Each rentier skimming from this chain drains off another fraction of the debt, which the public is obligated in theory to pay off one day.  The result is a class system in which 0.1% of the population gains the bulk of the benefit of economic productivity gains and public spending, A shrinking middle class carries a rapidly increasing tax burden and debt load, and a rapidly growing underclass is kept placid with government benefits. 

Things go on until they can't.  Exponentially increasing debt in the presence of declining economic growth, ultimately, economic retraction, will end catastrophically, if it is not managed.  Absent a change in energy technology, increasing productivity is not a long-term option.  The only way to manage this landing is calculated, systematic debt destruction.

The money is debt.  It is made of debt.  It is a token of debt.  It is debt which can only be repaid by creating more debt.  The money itself is the very root of the problem.
Either the system implodes catastrophically, or it reforms itself.  In either case, debt-based money will cease to exist as it does today.

The reason is because money (or bitcoin, or gold) is not real wealth, it is only a token that society will accept and exchange for real wealth.  The exchange is so smooth and universal that, for personal or corporate finances, it is justifiable to treat money the same as wealth.  But when considering a whole nation, or the world, one must ignore the money and focus only on the real wealth.

Real wealth being goods and services, command of labor, materials and supplies, energy.  But you are ignoring the bulk of the wealth held by society.  Most of the value in society is in the interconnections between people, the transactions, transfers, obligations and acquitals which they make.  Human capital is not just a matter of skills, but of relationships.   Many of those relationships, often the most economically important ones, are mediated by money.  Ignoring money would cause you to ignore much of the value in society.

No matter how much  money the government creates of derstroys, confiscates or gives away, the real weath of the country will not change.  Fiddling with the finacial system, the currency, and the money supply can only change the distribution of wealth among the citizens

If the government destroyed all currency and all balances on account, I think half the people in the U.S. would be dead in a month.  Supply chains would collapse, and under modern just-in-time inventory management practices, mass starvation, epidemics, and gang warfare would be pervasive.

The distribution of wealth among the citizens is obviously of crucial importance to the function of society.  If instead, the U.S. confiscated the currency and balances on account, and handed them all to Dennis Rodman,  the result would be indistinguishable from destroying them.
 

in a crisis most people need to take money out of investment funds and savings in order to survive; so the value of bitcoin is likely to drop, due to diminished demand, rather than increase.  

You''re not doing that right.  Circulating currency is worth more than reserve currency.

[shmadz]

^Well said animorex.^

Man I love this thread, much variety.

[ShroomsKit]

So today we had two major retailers announce that they're taking bitcoin and we're now lower value than we were 24 hours ago. This market is brutal.

As many people have pointed out already, those major retailers announced that they are taking dollars -- that will come from the sale of bitcoins, mostly by bitcoin enthusiasts.  So those news may give bitcoin more visibility, but it is questionable whether they will expand the number of bitcoin owners, and they imply more coins moving from hoards into the market.

And, anyway, those news are irrelevant to the Chinese traders -- who seem to be leading the current drop.

Merchant adoption is the next step towards global acceptance after the initial investment / speculation phase. It's the next logical step and it's a good sign.

They are not taking dollars, they are taking Bitcoins. And not all of the merchants are selling 100% of the Bitcoins back to dollars by the way.

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Why are you always so negative / skeptic?

So you will reply to him and give him attention. Which is the only reason he is here.

[lay785]

So today we had two major retailers announce that they're taking bitcoin and we're now lower value than we were 24 hours ago. This market is brutal.

As many people have pointed out already, those major retailers announced that they are taking dollars -- that will come from the sale of bitcoins, mostly by bitcoin enthusiasts.  So those news may give bitcoin more visibility, but it is questionable whether they will expand the number of bitcoin owners, and they imply more coins moving from hoards into the market.

And, anyway, those news are irrelevant to the Chinese traders -- who seem to be leading the current drop.

Merchant adoption is the next step towards global acceptance after the initial investment / speculation phase. It's the next logical step and it's a good sign.

They are not taking dollars, they are taking Bitcoins. And not all of the merchants are selling 100% of the Bitcoins back to dollars by the way.

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Interesting points. However I still cannot understand why someone would pay with bitcoins if rewards credit cards offer bonus cashback + services and features.
eg. many companies add an extra year warranty + some have purchase protection if item gets stolen/breaks within 90 days + protection from sellers who dont send quality goods and refuse to make good on the purchase and many more features.

Some of these benefits coupled with extra cash back (eg. I have a card that gives 2% cashback on all purchases) wont exactly make people flock to bitcoin unless they have something to hide or are paranoid and want to be "anonymous" (as if the nsa cant track you anyway...).

P.S. Of course there is a use for someone who cant get their hands on a credit card with features like those mentioned above (most people probably can though).

[PirateHatForTea]

Inflation and hyperinflation are a big inconvenience, waste a lot of time, make things inefficient and stressful; but people can finda ways to adapt and survive, and the country continues to function without becoming a Mad Max world.

I suspect deflation will predominate for some time.  Presently the bankers and administration seek to undermine the dollar to boost exports and inflate risk assets, but collapsing productivity and debt expansion in Europe and Japan are making the U.S. look healthy in contrast, which is likely to push the dollar back up relative to other majors. These are not
mutually exclusive because all the majors are inflating their currencies massively, in tandem:  They all have far more debt than ithey can service, so money has to get cheaper and cheaper (within the domestic market no less than it needs to do the same) in Europe and Japan.  Thus bankers can carry incredible sums on their balance sheets, to bid up risk assets through a series of proxies.  Each rentier skimming from this chain drains off another fraction of the debt, which the public is obligated in theory to pay off one day.  The result is a class system in which 0.1% of the population gains the bulk of the benefit of economic productivity gains and public spending, A shrinking middle class carries a rapidly increasing tax burden and debt load, and a rapidly growing underclass is kept placid with government benefits. 

Things go on until they can't.  Exponentially increasing debt in the presence of declining economic growth, ultimately, economic retraction, will end catastrophically, if it is not managed.  Absent a change in energy technology, increasing productivity is not a long-term option.  The only way to manage this landing is calculated, systematic debt destruction.

The money is debt.  It is made of debt.  It is a token of debt.  It is debt which can only be repaid by creating more debt.  The money itself is the very root of the problem.
Either the system implodes catastrophically, or it reforms itself.  In either case, debt-based money will cease to exist as it does today.

The reason is because money (or bitcoin, or gold) is not real wealth, it is only a token that society will accept and exchange for real wealth.  The exchange is so smooth and universal that, for personal or corporate finances, it is justifiable to treat money the same as wealth.  But when considering a whole nation, or the world, one must ignore the money and focus only on the real wealth.

Real wealth being goods and services, command of labor, materials and supplies, energy.  But you are ignoring the bulk of the wealth held by society.  Most of the value in society is in the interconnections between people, the transactions, transfers, obligations and acquitals which they make.  Human capital is not just a matter of skills, but of relationships.   Many of those relationships, often the most economically important ones, are mediated by money.  Ignoring money would cause you to ignore much of the value in society.

No matter how much  money the government creates of derstroys, confiscates or gives away, the real weath of the country will not change.  Fiddling with the finacial system, the currency, and the money supply can only change the distribution of wealth among the citizens

If the government destroyed all currency and all balances on account, I think half the people in the U.S. would be dead in a month.  Supply chains would collapse, and under modern just-in-time inventory management practices, mass starvation, epidemics, and gang warfare would be pervasive.

The distribution of wealth among the citizens is obviously of crucial importance to the function of society.  If instead, the U.S. confiscated the currency and balances on account, and handed them all to Dennis Rodman,  the result would be indistinguishable from destroying them.
 

in a crisis most people need to take money out of investment funds and savings in order to survive; so the value of bitcoin is likely to drop, due to diminished demand, rather than increase.  

You''re not doing that right.  Circulating currency is worth more than reserve currency.

This is the best post I have ever seen on BTCTalk. Quoting for posterirty. Aminorex, do you post in the economics sub-forum? I haven't spent much time there, but would like to have more discussions like the one above. Also do you recommend any reading sources (books or blogs)?

[log2exp]

Investing in BitPay is another way to buy coins, except that the entry cost is high, since there is a minimum investment level that's beyond many individuals' wealth.

BitPay offers their investors at a rate slightly higher than the market value, but it's much better than to buy coin directly on an exchange for multiple reasons. This type of transaction is off market trade.

So, I don't think wide spread of merchant accepting bitcoins will depress its value.

[jl2012]

So today we had two major retailers announce that they're taking bitcoin and we're now lower value than we were 24 hours ago. This market is brutal.

As many people have pointed out already, those major retailers announced that they are taking dollars -- that will come from the sale of bitcoins, mostly by bitcoin enthusiasts.  So those news may give bitcoin more visibility, but it is questionable whether they will expand the number of bitcoin owners, and they imply more coins moving from hoards into the market.

And, anyway, those news are irrelevant to the Chinese traders -- who seem to be leading the current drop.

Merchant adoption is the next step towards global acceptance after the initial investment / speculation phase. It's the next logical step and it's a good sign.

They are not taking dollars, they are taking Bitcoins. And not all of the merchants are selling 100% of the Bitcoins back to dollars by the way.

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Interesting points. However I still cannot understand why someone would pay with bitcoins if rewards credit cards offer bonus cashback + services and features.
eg. many companies add an extra year warranty + some have purchase protection if item gets stolen/breaks within 90 days + protection from sellers who dont send quality goods and refuse to make good on the purchase and many more features.

Some of these benefits coupled with extra cash back (eg. I have a card that gives 2% cashback on all purchases) wont exactly make people flock to bitcoin unless they have something to hide or are paranoid and want to be "anonymous" (as if the nsa cant track you anyway...).

P.S. Of course there is a use for someone who cant get their hands on a credit card with features like those mentioned above (most people probably can though).

Do you truly believe all these bonus cashback, services, features, extra year warranty, purchase protection, and ability to charge-back are FREE? YOU are the one paying for all these crap, and even you don't want these you have no choice

[lay785]

So today we had two major retailers announce that they're taking bitcoin and we're now lower value than we were 24 hours ago. This market is brutal.

As many people have pointed out already, those major retailers announced that they are taking dollars -- that will come from the sale of bitcoins, mostly by bitcoin enthusiasts.  So those news may give bitcoin more visibility, but it is questionable whether they will expand the number of bitcoin owners, and they imply more coins moving from hoards into the market.

And, anyway, those news are irrelevant to the Chinese traders -- who seem to be leading the current drop.

Merchant adoption is the next step towards global acceptance after the initial investment / speculation phase. It's the next logical step and it's a good sign.

They are not taking dollars, they are taking Bitcoins. And not all of the merchants are selling 100% of the Bitcoins back to dollars by the way.

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Interesting points. However I still cannot understand why someone would pay with bitcoins if rewards credit cards offer bonus cashback + services and features.
eg. many companies add an extra year warranty + some have purchase protection if item gets stolen/breaks within 90 days + protection from sellers who dont send quality goods and refuse to make good on the purchase and many more features.

Some of these benefits coupled with extra cash back (eg. I have a card that gives 2% cashback on all purchases) wont exactly make people flock to bitcoin unless they have something to hide or are paranoid and want to be "anonymous" (as if the nsa cant track you anyway...).

P.S. Of course there is a use for someone who cant get their hands on a credit card with features like those mentioned above (most people probably can though).

Do you truly believe all these bonus cashback, services, features, extra year warranty, purchase protection, and ability to charge-back are FREE? YOU are the one paying for all these crap, and even you don't want these you have no choice

What the heck are you talking about, ive been getting all these benefits "for free". I have never paid a dime to any credit card company. No annual fees, no charges, nothing... I have all the above "totally free". If you have never heard about these things you should do some research.

What do you mean if I "dont want these" - why in the world would any sane person not want "cashback" and an "extra year warranty"........ wtf are you smoking.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

So today we had two major retailers announce that they're taking bitcoin and we're now lower value than we were 24 hours ago. This market is brutal.

As many people have pointed out already, those major retailers announced that they are taking dollars -- that will come from the sale of bitcoins, mostly by bitcoin enthusiasts.  So those news may give bitcoin more visibility, but it is questionable whether they will expand the number of bitcoin owners, and they imply more coins moving from hoards into the market.

And, anyway, those news are irrelevant to the Chinese traders -- who seem to be leading the current drop.

Merchant adoption is the next step towards global acceptance after the initial investment / speculation phase. It's the next logical step and it's a good sign.

They are not taking dollars, they are taking Bitcoins. And not all of the merchants are selling 100% of the Bitcoins back to dollars by the way.

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Interesting points. However I still cannot understand why someone would pay with bitcoins if rewards credit cards offer bonus cashback + services and features.
eg. many companies add an extra year warranty + some have purchase protection if item gets stolen/breaks within 90 days + protection from sellers who dont send quality goods and refuse to make good on the purchase and many more features.

Some of these benefits coupled with extra cash back (eg. I have a card that gives 2% cashback on all purchases) wont exactly make people flock to bitcoin unless they have something to hide or are paranoid and want to be "anonymous" (as if the nsa cant track you anyway...).

P.S. Of course there is a use for someone who cant get their hands on a credit card with features like those mentioned above (most people probably can though).

Do you truly believe all these bonus cashback, services, features, extra year warranty, purchase protection, and ability to charge-back are FREE? YOU are the one paying for all these crap, and even you don't want these you have no choice

I sort of agree with that. Point being if merchants credit card costs are 3.5%, perhaps provide a 2% discount for payments in BTC