Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Miz4r]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

Do you really think everyone is bullish? Still feels like bear central around here compared to in a real bull market, when every thread is rockets and trains and people tell you they've maxed out credit cards and re mortgaged their house then I'd agree everyone is bullish. Im still not super bullish (leveraged long) but I've been all in (non leveraged) since around $450 my finger is far away from the sell button and like windjc Im waiting for the sellers to dry up again and my finger will be firmly pressing that long button (absent bad "news").

[600watt]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dgarcia]

....
there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Check that 'emotional phases of a bubble' chart again and consider it from a manipulators point of view. Is it more economic to reduce prices through brute-force or by influencing emotions?

He's german. We have no emotions. So we can not reproduce this.

[Miz4r]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

Do you really think everyone is bullish? Still feels like bear central around here compared to in a real bull market, when every thread is rockets and trains and people tell you they've maxed out credit cards and re mortgaged their house then I'd agree everyone is bullish. Im still not super bullish (leveraged long) but I've been all in (non leveraged) since around $450 my finger is far away from the sell button and like windjc Im waiting for the sellers to dry up again and my finger will be firmly pressing that long button (absent bad "news").

We're clearly not at the top of a bubble, but that wasn't what I was claiming. Just too many people anticipating one while the market hasn't fully shrugged off the 6-month long bear market yet. The two subsequent bubbles in 2013 are unlikely to repeat again, the April 2013 bubble tested the limits of the MtGox monopoly era and the November 2013 bubble signaled the end of MtGox and the rise of several new exchanges. The end of a monopoly exchange for BTC was clearly a good step the market took, but the market still has to take the next step in order to really grow explosively again. It's coming, but we're not there yet and it could easily take another year or so. Until then I see us hovering somewhere between 400 and 1000.

[Dotto]

Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.

Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?

[ShroomsKit]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Source?

[dreamspark]

Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.

Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?

Well everyone can't be a bull otherwise we'd be at a million already

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Pretty decisive statement, a couple of months is an age in Bitcoin land. Im actually thinking the murmurs of the next bull run are being heard and in retrospect we could be looking back with hindsight and saying the general 2014 bubble started at the end of May.

[600watt]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Source?

my arsebrain* what is the source of your predictions ?

*sometimes hard to distinguish

[ShroomsKit]

Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.

Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?

Well everyone can't be a bull otherwise we'd be at a million already

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Pretty decisive statement, a couple of months is an age in Bitcoin land. Im actually thinking the murmurs of the next bull run are being heard and in retrospect we could be looking back with hindsight and saying the general 2014 bubble started at the end of May.

Predicting anything more than a week from now is as useless as it gets. It's just weird that people still do it.

[Miz4r]

Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.

Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?

Because bears have fiat and bulls don't.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Predicting anything more than a week from now is as useless as it gets. It's just weird that people still do it.

Only people, who can make bitcoin's price predictions with an honest face, are the ones who have enough weight to cause a specific outcome.
When something holds mostly speculative value, then that something is highly dependent on tactical choices of the speculators, and is less dependent on outside factors.

[stereotype]

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

I was so looking forward to this, as well  ...... http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/longterm-technical-analysis-bitcoin-price/2014/04/20

"BTC/USD market tops on 17 Aug 2012, 8 Apr 2013 and 29 Nov 2013 are separated by an average of 234 days (~7 months). The correlation is uncanny. The next 234 day demarcation falls on 24 July. Will the market capitulate and form a top near this date?"

[600watt]

Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.

Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?

Well everyone can't be a bull otherwise we'd be at a million already

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Pretty decisive statement, a couple of months is an age in Bitcoin land. Im actually thinking the murmurs of the next bull run are being heard and in retrospect we could be looking back with hindsight and saying the general 2014 bubble started at the end of May.

Predicting anything more than a week from now is as useless as it gets. It's just weird that people still do it.

imho everybody who is writing in the speculation subforum, everyone who holds btc, everyone who is trading btc is making assumptions about the future of btc that go beyond the timeframe of 7 days. you call that weird ? 

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

[ShroomsKit]

Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.

Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?

Well everyone can't be a bull otherwise we'd be at a million already

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Pretty decisive statement, a couple of months is an age in Bitcoin land. Im actually thinking the murmurs of the next bull run are being heard and in retrospect we could be looking back with hindsight and saying the general 2014 bubble started at the end of May.

Predicting anything more than a week from now is as useless as it gets. It's just weird that people still do it.

imho everybody who is writing in the speculation subforum, everyone who holds btc, everyone who is trading btc is making assumptions about the future of btc that go beyond the timeframe of 7 days. you call that weird ? 

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Quoting me making a sarcastic comment about a specific event also doesn't make much sense. 

[ShroomsKit]

Look i understand we're on a speculation forum and predict things based on lines and what not but presenting detailed predictions for the next 6 months as facts is just stupid and a complete waste of time. It is 100% impossible to know what will happen the next 6 months.

[roslinpl]

Seems like this isn't a best day for ups ...


Scorching summer seems not helping