Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DjPxH]

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up.
If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?

I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics.  give us some specifics.   Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no?  If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD.

The Report points out that those bots (Willy/Markus) have bought a total of about 650000 BTC over that time. Sometimes they didn't even spend money for those trades. These 650000 BTC (plus the recovered 200000 BTC) amount to the total amount of Gox's lost 850000 coins. So maybe those 650000 BTC never existed? Maybe they were stolen and Gox tried to buy them from the customers for fake FIAT. The bots were constantly buying in a way that made it almost impossible for the price to go down! Couldn't this be a very valid reason for a bubble?

[1715441539]

1715441539

[Dotto]

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up.
If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?

I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics.  give us some specifics.   Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no?  If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD.

The Report points out that those bots (Willy/Markus) have bought a total of about 650000 BTC over that time. Sometimes they didn't even spend money for those trades. These 650000 BTC (plus the recovered 200000 BTC) amount to the total amount of Gox's lost 850000 coins. So maybe those 650000 BTC never existed? Maybe they were stolen and Gox tried to buy them from the customers for fake FIAT. The bots were constantly buying in a way that made it almost impossible for the price to go down! Couldn't this be a very valid reason for a bubble?

It makes a lot of sense.

I dont think the bubble was driven exclusively by the bot, however.

[findftp]

How and Why to Build an Unbanked Bitcoin ATM

...in which I combine electrical engineering, economy theory, and trading strategies.

Applause!
Nice article!
It's late, so tomorrow I will read it completely

[findftp]

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up.
If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?

I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics.  give us some specifics.   Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no?  If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD.

The Report points out that those bots (Willy/Markus) have bought a total of about 650000 BTC over that time. Sometimes they didn't even spend money for those trades. These 650000 BTC (plus the recovered 200000 BTC) amount to the total amount of Gox's lost 850000 coins. So maybe those 650000 BTC never existed? Maybe they were stolen and Gox tried to buy them from the customers for fake FIAT. The bots were constantly buying in a way that made it almost impossible for the price to go down! Couldn't this be a very valid reason for a bubble?

And what about all the poor gox victims?
They are still waiting for the price to drop so that they can buy back their coins cheap, which ain't gonna happen.
Imho this is rocket fuel for a bubble (I know a few if those waiters)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitChick]

This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.

I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.

Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.

Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.

I have my doubts about the Willy report as well, but concerning the volume: It doesn't matter if the volume was rather low or the volume only accounted for 8% or whatever of coins traded on Mt. Gox because if Willy really only ever bought coins, it wouldn't drive the volume up that much. Coins get sold and re-sold and re-sold over and over again. If Willy is simply buying, that low volume is enough to push the price up.
If this should really be true... Wouldn't we now sit on a vastly inflated bitcoin price that is about to collapse at any time?

I understand that this is a BTC speculation thread; however, you are speculating too much without specifics.  give us some specifics.   Possibly Willy caused a certain amount of BTC price inflation; however, that potential price inflation would dissipate over time, no?  If we were at 20% price inflation in November 2013, does it follow that we would still be at 20% price inflation - likely NOT...... give some numbers to support your speculation in order to make it meaningful - otherwise you are just spreading and/or encouraging the spreading of near baseless FUD.

The Report points out that those bots (Willy/Markus) have bought a total of about 650000 BTC over that time. Sometimes they didn't even spend money for those trades. These 650000 BTC (plus the recovered 200000 BTC) amount to the total amount of Gox's lost 850000 coins. So maybe those 650000 BTC never existed? Maybe they were stolen and Gox tried to buy them from the customers for fake FIAT. The bots were constantly buying in a way that made it almost impossible for the price to go down! Couldn't this be a very valid reason for a bubble?

And what about all the poor gox victims?
They are still waiting for the price to drop so that they can buy back their coins cheap, which ain't gonna happen.
Imho this is rocket fuel for a bubble (I know a few if those waiters)

I can imagine it would be painful to buy back at a higher price.  But it will be more painful to be left behind if and when the price rises again.  They should just console themselves with the thought that if they buy in now if we do have another bubble they can try to sell close to the peak and buy more the next time the price consolidates?  Then they will in a way be getting coins "cheap" (whatever that is. )

[adamstgBit]

looks good

600 keeps switching between support and resistance, I expect more of the same.

I really don't see market crashing below support, news has been good, and I expect more of the same in that department too.

really the only reason we are down seems to be due to impatient sellers selling in to cool headed methodical accumulators.

I am confidence we will break upward out of that mini triangle sending us back above 600, and probably going for a test of resistance (640ish) soon after.

looks like we will be stuck in this range, for a while longer.

not a bad time play the crypto currency day trader role, be the market, buy on support and sell on resistance, easy money.

[thezerg]

How and Why to Build an Unbanked Bitcoin ATM

...in which I combine electrical engineering, economy theory, and trading strategies.

Its a very clever perspective and in fact the most interesting thing I've read in this thread all week. 

tl;dr; He's essentially saying if you can't get a bank account to support your ATM then outsource the job to customers.

You do this via local supply and demand.  When the machine gets lots of fiat, raise the price of BTC at that machine.  When the price gets high enough, somebody will sell the machine BTC for fiat.  When the machine gets lots of BTC, lower the price. 

The ATM operator makes money by taking a small fraction of every trade, doesn't matter what the price sold/bought at is relative to the rest of the world (in the long term).  But of course when it diverges someone will show up with either BTC or cash to do the arbitrage... online posting the current price of BTC at your ATM encourages arbitragers to show up...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

How and Why to Build an Unbanked Bitcoin ATM

...in which I combine electrical engineering, economy theory, and trading strategies.

Its a very clever perspective and in fact the most interesting thing I've read in this thread all week.  

tl;dr; He's essentially saying if you can't get a bank account to support your ATM then outsource the job to customers.

You do this via local supply and demand.  When the machine gets lots of fiat, raise the price of BTC at that machine.  When the price gets high enough, somebody will sell the machine BTC for fiat.  When the machine gets lots of BTC, lower the price.  

The ATM operator makes money by taking a small fraction of every trade, doesn't matter what the price sold/bought at is relative to the rest of the world (in the long term).  But of course when it diverges someone will show up with either BTC or cash to do the arbitrage... online posting the current price of BTC at your ATM encourages arbitragers to show up...

it's an interesting idea, but seems this ATM would end up buying high and selling low.
someone loads the ATM with 10BTC the ATM gives him 6,000$ cash, then that ATM is considered overload in BTC so it offers to sell the same 10BTC for 5,500$  
you'd have to charge one hell of a fee to make buying high selling low profitable.

[InstantBitcoin]

looks good

600 keeps switching between support and resistance, I expect more of the same.

I really don't see market crashing below support, news has been good, and I expect more of the same in that department too.

really the only reason we are down seems to be due to impatient sellers selling in to cool headed methodical accumulators.

I am confidence we will break upward out of that mini triangle sending us back above 600, and probably going for a test of resistance (640ish) soon after.

looks like we will be stuck in this range, for a while longer.

not a bad time play the crypto currency day trader role, be the market, buy on support and sell on resistance, easy money.

shake shake shake the monkeys out the trees 550 then run on panic buying to 900!!! you people!!!!     lmfaooo

[adamstgBit]

550 is a pipe dream

monkeys across the globe are waking at the thought

its not going to happen people....

[roslinpl]

550 is a pipe dream

monkeys across the globe are waking at the thought

its not going to happen people....

Can't say for 100% but I agree that it is as possible as global ice age in next week.

But they say that there is nothing impossible :-)

Last time when price was falling to $450 I was sure it is not possible also

[Davyd05]

550 is a pipe dream

monkeys across the globe are waking at the thought

its not going to happen people....

I agree for the most part, but 20 bucks from 550 so I would imagine if someone finds some more coins to dump from a weak hand anything is possible.


I thought our bought was 330 last time it happened.. based on some 1d fibs from the beginning of the fall rally and peak of it. 330 seems like a place of massive support, and now my bets would be of 500 bottom, but 550 is likely to hold without some big paper wallet pockets.

[shmadz]

550 is a pipe dream

monkeys across the globe are waking at the thought

its not going to happen people....

I get the same feel, price is going up.

so why do I feel compelled to do stupid things like place low ball bids?

I think I'm still buying *with my throw-away cash* until around 800 CAD.

anyone who wants to sell, I'll take your 0.2 btc at this price and laugh all the way to the bank!

hahaha, ding! ding! ding! dinner's ready! come and get it!!!

(lol, I'm such a whale

[adamstgBit]

550 is a pipe dream

monkeys across the globe are waking at the thought

its not going to happen people....

I get the same feel, price is going up.

so why do I feel compelled to do this?

My open trades
Created   Buy/Sell   Amount   Rate   Value   Status   Cancel
July 29, 2014, 7:36 p.m.   Buy   0.2000/0.2000 BTC   612.00000 CAD   122.40 CAD   Open   

July 29, 2014, 7:27 p.m.   Buy   0.1000/0.1000 BTC   626.00000 CAD   62.60 CAD   Open   

July 28, 2014, 12:48 p.m.   Buy   0.4000/0.4000 BTC   616.00000 CAD   246.40 CAD   Open   

July 28, 2014, 12:48 p.m.   Buy   0.0257/0.2000 BTC   621.10000 CAD   15.96 CAD   Open   


One already got chomped nicely but due to time constraints I didn't catch my original 612 bid, but it's back now.

ding! ding! ding! dinner's ready! come and get it!!!

(lol, I'm such a whale

I'd be buying here too, but I acted too quickly, and spent all my colorful canadian money weeks ago at ~636

[kireinaha]

Delusional... is that one of the steps before a market turnaround? I'm thinking it comes before anger and finally acceptance. This place is full of delusional posts, so we're not going anywhere for awhile.

Here's the real deal: we're on the seventh daily red candle in a row, and (once again) weak volume, can't break $590. I think a re-rest of the $570 support is much more likely than a return to the $600s...

[shmadz]

550 is a pipe dream

monkeys across the globe are waking at the thought

its not going to happen people....

I get the same feel, price is going up.

so why do I feel compelled to do this?

My open trades
Created   Buy/Sell   Amount   Rate   Value   Status   Cancel
July 29, 2014, 7:36 p.m.   Buy   0.2000/0.2000 BTC   612.00000 CAD   122.40 CAD   Open   

July 29, 2014, 7:27 p.m.   Buy   0.1000/0.1000 BTC   626.00000 CAD   62.60 CAD   Open   

July 28, 2014, 12:48 p.m.   Buy   0.4000/0.4000 BTC   616.00000 CAD   246.40 CAD   Open   

July 28, 2014, 12:48 p.m.   Buy   0.0257/0.2000 BTC   621.10000 CAD   15.96 CAD   Open   


One already got chomped nicely but due to time constraints I didn't catch my original 612 bid, but it's back now.

ding! ding! ding! dinner's ready! come and get it!!!

(lol, I'm such a whale

I'd be buying here too, but I acted too quickly, and spent all my fiat weeks ago at ~636

yeah, I got cleaned out on the last dip to 450 at around 500, now I just throw the leftovers of my slave wages on some low bids and hope they get filled.

[InstantBitcoin]

*imo* >>> PLACE YOUR BETS ON 551 AND TURN OFF THE SCREEN GO FOR A WALK....
~ WE WILL STILL BE HERE!!!!  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation