Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

Think the smartest guy I know is pretty skint , but does have a bungalow with sea views and lives on a tropical island a literal stones throw from a beach, oh and he has a boat.....  spends his life with his family, and  spending his days fishing and laughing with tourists, then in the evening a few beers,  getting stoned and BBQ and dancing.. man.. that guy really could not give a fuck about Bitcoin..  when I am wealthy wise enough... I want his life  

[oda.krell]

With Metcalfe's law, bitcoin is indeed quite promising, as the users have been increasing and are expected to increase further.
This means the value of bitcoin is increasing. Could this argument be valid?

We do not know whether the number of "bitcoin users" is increasing.

The sources that I know (such as blockchan.info) do not give that information.  They give some quantities (such as wallet software downloads, transactions per day, total BTC volume per day) from which some people claim to be able to derive the number of users.  However, those quantities include an unknown amount of operations that do not imply real additional use.  Some of them (like total BTC volume) have been relatively constant for the last 6 months.  Moreover, there is no information at all about people who stopped "using" bitcoin, e.g. after buying a bit just for curiosity.

Yes, we actually do.

blockchain.info stats aren't the only source saying so. Online wallet stats, number of vendors accepting Bitcoin... there's plenty of evidence of growth well above linear increase (cue: "doesn't mean it's long-term exponential").

Your argument runs down to: but all those stats could be faked/manipulated by entities high enough in the decision chain of exchanges or websites. While theoretically possible, you have to ask yourself it is the most likely explanation of the data.

There's plenty of fraud and deception in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but what you seem to have in mind is a level of organized deception that you cannot simply "claim" to be the reason for the data. If you have solid proof for it, let us know. Otherwise, I could dismiss anthropogenic global warming by claiming that measuring stations world wide were manipulated by Jewish space lizards -- it's a possibility, y'know.

tl;dr The most likely reason to generate data indicating exponential growth in usage is actual usage. Claiming otherwise requires evidence, which I have yet to see.

It doesn't have to be manipulation. Say you're laundering coins on a regular basis. Say you're using Blockchain.info to do this. How many throwaway wallets a month would an automated system built for this purpose generate? What about several of them?

Valid point. But as I pointed out: similar growth is visible across different key metrics.

Also, to stay with your "coin laundering" example, why would there need to be *more* wallets as time progresses (unless adoption by criminals also increases)?

Note, by the way, that this doesn't necessarily mean that we don't have an inflated price. Just that network growth seems a) natural and b) quite clearly exponential (perhaps in "bursts" of growth, though)

[empowering]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dropt]

tells allot about you.

Is that so?

[dropt]

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

+1

Although I have the luxury of such actions and I'm aware others are not. 

[mmitech]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it?

for not taking action at the right moment when my sentiment changed, in other words lost the chance to make a $5K more...

[kireinaha]

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

+1

Although I have the luxury of such actions and I'm aware others are not. 

Don't go bringing Jimmy Buffet quotes in here. He said himself to stay away from commodities.

[hdbuck]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it?

means he has around 125 BTC ?!    

[dropt]

Don't go bringing Jimmy Buffet quotes in here. He said himself to stay away from commodities.

   Jimmy Buffet eh?

[empowering]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it?

for not taking action at the right moment when my sentiment changed, in other words lost the chance to make a $5K more...

Ohhh I see so you lost out on making $5K not lost $5k - there is a difference... you cannot lose something you never had... you missed an opportunity..
the old 20/20 hindsight psychology... that my friend is a bad road to go down....  you have got to admit... losing a hypothetical $5k is not much to cry about and also far far far better imo than having sold and have the market jump against you upwards by $200 then you really would have actually made a loss.. and the market will do it to you make no doubts about that, if you play that game long enough....it will bite you... far better to cry over the hyptohetical loss of gains you could have had than to take the hit imo... far better..

[empowering]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it?

means he has around 125 BTC ?!    

or leverage

[kireinaha]

Don't go bringing Jimmy Buffet quotes in here. He said himself to stay away from commodities.

   Jimmy Buffet eh?

yeah this guy ....   
[img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Jimmy_Buffett_1.jpg[img]

Yes, that gentleman is a billionaire investor and he specifically said in an interview earlier this year to stay away from bitcoin. 

[empowering]

Don't go bringing Jimmy Buffet quotes in here. He said himself to stay away from commodities.

   Jimmy Buffet eh?

yeah this guy ....  
[img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Jimmy_Buffett_1.jpg[img]

Yes, that gentleman is a billionaire investor and he specifically said in an interview earlier this year to stay away from bitcoin.  

That would be Warren?    what is it with you and names? first "sagon" and now "jimmy" where do you get this from ?  

Also that ol dude is as slippery as an eel - talkin' his book

[mmitech]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

When you say you have lost $5K how exactly did you lose it?

for not taking action at the right moment when my sentiment changed, in other words lost the chance to make a $5K more...

Ohhh I see so you lost out on making $5K not lost $5k - there is a difference... you cannot lose something you never had... you missed an opportunity..
the old 20/20 hindsight psychology... that my friend is a bad road to go down....  you have got to admit... losing a hypothetical $5k is not much to cry about and also far far far better imo than having sold and have the market jump against you upwards by $200 then you really would have actually made a loss.. and the market will do it to you ake no doubts about that, if you play that game long enough....it will bite you... far better to cry over the hyptohetical loss of gains you could have had than to take the hit imo... far better..

never cried about it, if I would start crying, I would cry about not going all out at $1060 instead of selling only 10-15%, BTW I didn't have that much of BTC , I had less than 100 BTC, and I've never used leverage, I tried trading on Finex only once and it was fraustrating so I stopped using it.

[dropt]

That would be Warren?    what is it with you and names? first "sagon" and now "jimmy" where do you get this from ?  

And that quote doesn't even originate from Buffett, Warren or Jimmy.  

[JayJuanGee]

Rakuten coming on board:
http://www.coindesk.com/rakuten-us-subsidiary-bitcoin/

Doesn't matter, I'm selling now. Time to get out fellas.

Bye, Bye!!!!

[fonzie]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

Nothing wrong with doing incorrect predictions, but please stop running around saying i have always been right since February with all of my predictions (e.g. LTC...).
That makes you look like, well as someone else stated, an imbecile.

[Kupsi]

This has to be the weakest bull trap I've ever seen. It will break soon followed by several more weeks of sideways down trending. TERA tried to tell you all this but you drove her away for having a "contrarian" opinion.

You're so right, man!  My bitcoin that was worth $588 yesterday is only worth $570 today!!!  What a devastating crash, a btc crash to end all crashes!!


_{(In. case. you. can't. tell. that. was. mega. sarcasm.)}

And it was worth $600 a couple weeks ago and worth $630 a week before that and $680 only a couple months ago. You're welcome to keep holding if you'd like, but smart people are reducing their exposure right now.

...and $450 three months ago. Forgotten that? 

[hdbuck]

@mmitech Haven´t you wrote 2-3 days ago that your sentiment changed bullish when we were around 595$, However it seem that you have deleted that post now, lol.
Are you possibly the personification of ShroomsKits fictional trader alter ego?

I didn't delete that post, and yes a week ago I said that it is looking bullish, I've changed my mind and lost $5K for not selling at the time.

Nothing wrong with doing incorrect predictions, but please stop running around saying i have always been right since February with all of my predictions (e.g. LTC...).
That makes you look like, well as someone else stated, an imbecile.

yea dont tread on our little fonzie's toe.