Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[frienemy]

Bouncing time @463 at Stamps. Not too far away

[N12]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

Nowadays, PayPal subsidiaries can accept Bitcoin, Dell can accept Bitcoin, it's all priced in.

[oda.krell]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

It's not even that unmotivated, if you think about it.

Back then, Bitcoin was fighting for even the slightest chance at recognition, and even just awareness. A mainstream article was enough for that.

Next was merchant adoption. Took a while, but it looks like Bitcoin is on track in that respect. Makes sense, as well: there's a good, solid financial incentive for merchants to favor Bitcoin over legacy payment systems (assuming they put a processor like Bitpay in between).

Now that that one is settled, more merchant adoption (short of amazon.com) doesn't seem to move price up much anymore.

So, big question to the audience: what's the next "unresolved" question (as in: something that the market still reacts to)?

I have a hunch

[Wilhelm]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

Nowadays, PayPal subsidiaries can accept Bitcoin, Dell can accept Bitcoin, it's all priced in.

Maybe not priced in, maybe we're under bought due to the long hard dump we had, we will go sky-high soon

[BTCat]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

Nowadays, PayPal subsidiaries can accept Bitcoin, Dell can accept Bitcoin, it's all priced in.

I don't think it's priced in, it just takes time to build up energy until it explodes.

[Torque]

I have a hunch

Do tell!

_{(And please don't say Wallstreet or ETF, or I'm gonna barf)}

[N12]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

It's not even that unmotivated, if you think about it.

Back then, Bitcoin was fighting for even the slightest chance at recognition, and even just awareness. A mainstream article was enough for that.

Next was merchant adoption. Took a while, but it looks like Bitcoin is on track in that respect. Makes sense, as well: there's a good, solid financial incentive for merchants to favor Bitcoin over legacy payment systems (assuming they put a processor like Bitpay in between).

Now that that one is settled, more merchant adoption (short of amazon.com) doesn't seem to move price up much anymore.

So, big question to the audience: what's the next "unresolved" question (as in: something that the market still reacts to)?

I have a hunch

Totally agree with you. My hunch? Getting Bitcoin tradeable on every real world broker, aka ETF.

Other than that, Bitcoin is IMO still searching for a "killer app". I don't know what future ones could be, but since Silk Road and SatoshiDice I haven't seen much that motivates people to use Bitcoin over fiat for transactions.

[oda.krell]

I have a hunch

Do tell!

_{(And please don't say Wallstreet or ETF, or I'm gonna barf)}

User adoption (vs. merchant adoption, that looks a lot better).

The trolling tone of posters like Jorge aside, they do have a point somewhat:

It is not 100% clear that a vast number of people will feel the need to get into crypto. Let's go into the reasons of the groups that we do know have an interest:

- political (somewhat simplified: libertarian mindset)

- desire for anonymity (somewhat simplified: black market transactions) (yes, I know, not really anonymous. But a lot better than buying weed with your CC)

- economical (somewhat simplified: Austrian school)

- unbanked / remittance market (somewhat simplified: the poorest of the world)

- technological (somewhat simplified:  Bitcoin "feels" technologically superior to, say, cash to a certain type of people)

- (EDIT) inflation safe store of value / free movement of capital (like a combination of "ecnomical" and "unbanked" above, but for countries that are developed enough to have a working banking system, but where "inflation" is more than just something that only Austrians get mad about. Argentina comes to mind, for exmple.)

(Did I forget an obvious group?)

Point is, we're waiting for signs of massive adoption in either one of the above groups, or signs of minor adoption in the broad population.

That, or the next wave of speculative capital, I guess.

"CNN now has a Bitcoin ticker" doesn't really add much to answer that question, at the current level of exposure.

[hdbuck]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

It's not even that unmotivated, if you think about it.

Back then, Bitcoin was fighting for even the slightest chance at recognition, and even just awareness. A mainstream article was enough for that.

Next was merchant adoption. Took a while, but it looks like Bitcoin is on track in that respect. Makes sense, as well: there's a good, solid financial incentive for merchants to favor Bitcoin over legacy payment systems (assuming they put a processor like Bitpay in between).

Now that that one is settled, more merchant adoption (short of amazon.com) doesn't seem to move price up much anymore.

So, big question to the audience: what's the next "unresolved" question (as in: something that the market still reacts to)?

I have a hunch

Totally agree with you. My hunch? Getting Bitcoin tradeable on every real world broker, aka ETF.

Other than that, Bitcoin is IMO still searching for a "killer app". I don't know what future ones could be, but since Silk Road and SatoshiDice I haven't seen much that motivates people to use Bitcoin over fiat for transactions.

We just need moar merchants to accept BTC.

[Schickeria]

I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3.

It's not even that unmotivated, if you think about it.

Back then, Bitcoin was fighting for even the slightest chance at recognition, and even just awareness. A mainstream article was enough for that.

Next was merchant adoption. Took a while, but it looks like Bitcoin is on track in that respect. Makes sense, as well: there's a good, solid financial incentive for merchants to favor Bitcoin over legacy payment systems (assuming they put a processor like Bitpay in between).

Now that that one is settled, more merchant adoption (short of amazon.com) doesn't seem to move price up much anymore.

So, big question to the audience: what's the next "unresolved" question (as in: something that the market still reacts to)?

I have a hunch

Totally agree with you. My hunch? Getting Bitcoin tradeable on every real world broker, aka ETF.

Other than that, Bitcoin is IMO still searching for a "killer app". I don't know what future ones could be, but since Silk Road and SatoshiDice I haven't seen much that motivates people to use Bitcoin over fiat for transactions.

I bet with you that it needs no reason. If there will be any so called reason I think it's only a coincide. People are calling reasons like Cyprus, China etc... at best it has been a small push and after that it's all kinda mass psychology.

If we were rising now people were shouting GABI and PayPal is the reason.

It's a wave, nothing more.

You can see these small pushes even now. PayPal effected strong upwards momentum, but it couldn't stop ongoing wave.

[ibrahim11]

So, when is bitcoin going to rise? From the past weeks i think that the train is STUCK in the FUCKING STATION

[JayJuanGee]

this market can really make you sick

if we go sub 400 i'm leveraging HARD

its the only way - all or nothing

Yeah, but how long will it take, if it does?   There has been pretty decent resistance in this upper $400s range, which had caused me to believe that prices would NOT be going below $450 - but it is possible to eek out some more selling of coins, I suppose.. and maybe bring prices to the $430 arena... maybe? 

But even with the price currently floating in the $467 arena, I am thinking that the prices are going to spring back to the mid $470s....

yea i actually made a chart that suggested we would go 480 then back to 467 and rallying 500+ a few days later and 600 a week or 2 after that which would hopefully take us into the next bubble

kinda doubt it though

Funny how that works. 

You can make a lot of charts and a lot of graphs projecting BTC price changes, and then all you get in return for all those efforts is BTC price  defiance.

[Ivanhoe]

Don't know if somebody dropped this already : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pF7HxLCFMeY&feature=youtu.be

Listen at 0:09
Paypal has big plans, i can tell you that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

i bought and alt coin with my btc, btc when down and my alt coin crashed!

this is not good.

 

[inca]

It is getting pretty emotive on here.

Simply suggesting that the price isn't crashing and pointing out that stamp is a mere 3 dollars below this morning gets a proper bashing.

[oda.krell]

It is getting pretty emotive on here.

Simply suggesting that the price isn't crashing and pointing out that stamp is a mere 3 dollars below this morning gets a proper bashing.

Don't know if that's in response to my answer, but you basically equated "thinking that we're still in a downtrend" with "salivating daytraders".

That's bound to get a reaction

[NotLambchop]

...a mere 3 dollars below this morning ...

Nine dollars for me.  (Though it's always mourning 'round here  )

[adamstgBit]

ok i quit this forum, again. for the 100th time.

[macsga]

No one can predict for sure when the next rally comes (or crash for that matter). What I found interesting to read though was this article from coindesk:
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-can-longer-ignore-moores-law/
Copy pasting the interesting part for you:

The problem for bitcoin miners is the fact that overinvestment is starting to create an unsustainable trend. Demand, caused by ever higher difficulty, is outstripping development. Ideally miners would need chips capable of breaking Moore’s Law and then some. Over the past year the hash rate of the bitcoin network has skyrocketed from around 1,000,000GH/s to more than 200,000,000GH/s, briefly peaking at 231,138,370GH/s in late August. In roughly the same period the difficulty shot up from about 65 million to 27,428,630,902 on 31st August.

This is important for the price in my point of view; hashing rate (and difficulty) is coming to a point where we will have to deal with fundamental aspects of IT (Moore's Law). Except of course the mining companies have a hidden ace which we don't currently know (quantum ASICs? ). Equilibrium will come (according to the article) sometime within 2015. I personally expect some noise earlier than that, because miner's revenue is not anymore a positive number and many will go out of business.

I hope I'm right, because that means less miners, thus less btcs for sale, thus higher the demand/sale factor. If I'm wrong then it will be a bear's fest once more until sometime at the late $350-$380s. When this stops? Without a big catalyst for a proper CCMF, I'd expect sometime in 2016 when the block halving occurs. Until then, happy trolling...