Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[leoragraves666]

There is still too much btc in peoples savings. No one in their right mind will pump the price just to get money lost

[JorgeStolfi]

2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:

2012-11-05:   10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:      

 

Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts? 

[octaft]

even if winklevii are looking for greater fools at the $40k mark they are gonna be needing some brass ones at that point to hand over the baton ... the thing about bitcoin, the higher it goes more and more will be on board and the risk will move towards being left out .... monetary network effect is an unstable disequilibrium and the sheeple are fickle beasts

... everyone is going to become a cultist and the bag holders will be the ones with fiat.

Simple as that.

Actually the idea is they don't ever think it will hit 40k, they're just trying to convince potential greater fools that it will.

[spooderman]

Genius plan: sell all your btc in order to have fiat that you can use to pump btc! It's fool-proof.

[Tzupy]

2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:

2012-11-05:   10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:      

 

Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts? 

I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bassclef]

In my personal opinion they (Winklevoss brothers) are ever-lucky fools (considering who they are but where they are today).
However, I barely know anything about them other than they are being related to Facebook, Bitcoin and Olympics (which I find to be a strange combination because you can't fine-tune both your body and your mind for two distinctly different things at the same time; testosterone can suppress higher mental functions for some limited degree and business requires a different mindset than sports).
I saw the Hollywood movie about Facebook (which I assume to be very far from reality) and I saw them talking about Bitcoin a few times here and there (mostly in those kind of talk shows which probably don't allow anybody to talk freely and honestly) where they gave me the impression that they are admittedly planning to dump most if their BTC for as much USD as possible rather than planning to build a future around it so they can keep it.
They probably see the current price as an overinflated bubble (still) and they wouldn't buy a single satoshi if they discovered BTC today. This implies they are probably ready to dump for a lot less (~100$ or less) if they come to the conclusion that they should do so.

They are lucky, sure, to be tall, good-looking, athletic, smart and Harvard graduates. Most likely half of this forum has the brains to get into an Ivy League school like that, but that's another conversation. You can tell from their TV appearances that they are pretty introverted and intellectual and probably understand Bitcoin a great deal. They have positioned themselves to be the Bitcoin "big money" that exists in every market, and seek to make connections into the establishment financial markets that their friends and family likely occupy, but for whatever reason, have distanced their clout from traditional investment vehicles to Bitcoin. I find it interesting. Honestly, I think the ETF will get approved sometime next year. Just a hunch.

[rebuilder]

Soo... about 120 coins to go down to 324 USD on bitstamp, about the same to go up to 347... Of course, the walls dance around like hell.

[rebuilder]

Yeah... That looks very organic to me. Is this data for real?

[roslinpl]

Soo... about 120 coins to go down to 324 USD on bitstamp, about the same to go up to 347... Of course, the walls dance around like hell.

Situation may change any time ..

We have November already and still no signs for a rally but ... year is not yet finished!  :-)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[colour]

Yeah... That looks very organic to me. Is this data for real?

rebuilder, it's a bug on bitcoinity. I had the same issue, hit f5 a couple of times and it should be back to normal.

[NotLambchop]

Good morning gentlemen!
What's the accepted backstory for today's meteoric rise?

[elasticband]

Good morning gentlemen!
What's the accepted backstory for today's meteoric rise?

I bought back in?

[paul2000]

2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:

2012-11-05:   10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:      

 

Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts?  

parabola:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26136.msg9425113#msg9425113

[janos666]

2014-06-05: 660 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-04-05:

2012-11-05:   10 USD/BTC
2013-11-05: 244 USD/BTC
2014-11-05: 330 USD/BTC
2015-11-05:      

 

Should we fit a parabola through those three points, and see what it predicts?  

I'd like to see a parabola fit through these 3 points, my brain says it can't be done with a parabola.
More likely to fit a Gaussian distribution.

I had this software opened, so I couldn't resist.



P.S: The green is actually the real thing. And it's scary as f¤ck! (If you want higher prices, that is...)

[colour]

Good morning gentlemen!
What's the accepted backstory for today's meteoric rise?

I'll give my amateurish observations on the matter:

Whale #1 was busy all day slowly buying up coins on Stamp. That thinned the already meagre ask side out even more. Then s.o. placed a ~700BTC wall @ $329 on Finex, which scared the market up on both Finex and Stamp. As $330 swiftly broke on Stamp, whale #2 got FOMO and threw ~1mil. in fiat onto the market on Finex. Together with a bunch of shorts closing this caused Finex to go up $10. The price was then driven down slowly by 2000BTC in ask walls (Finex) until they got eaten in one swoop by s.o. going margin long, and got immediately replaced by ~2000 coins worth of bids which have kept us in this price range since then.

So I'd say it's just some big players trying to accumulate while the price is still (perceived by them as) low.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Currently not long. Currently not short. Wish I had been long for the little pump up, but I would have cashed out at $340 and waited to see what would happen next. I'm definitely skeptical about it. But, nah... only a missed opportunity on my end. No pain.

As in, you're in USD right now.

Not piling onto you, just an observation. Maybe just idle semantics, but interesting nonetheless:

I remember when the common usage in here was 'long' = in BTC, 'short' = in USD. If you happened to be leveraged short, that would be mentioned explicitly. Not that long ago, either... still the usual nomenclature in 2013.

Seems to have shifted a bit: 'short' now means leveraged short, and being in USD is, well, simply being. Bit more like in all other markets.

Again: I'm not dissing traders, am doing so myself. But it is interesting nonetheless. At least in terminology, the 'holder' mentality seems to decline in importance somewhat, while the 'trader' mentality is on the rise. I suspect a twofold reason: the long bear market (rewarding thinking in terms of USD profits), and an increasing professionalization of the market.

[oda.krell]

Good morning gentlemen!
What's the accepted backstory for today's meteoric rise?

You're probably not really interested in an answer, but at least part of the reason is probably...

The relevant bit is on the right side. That, and another wave of buying on Bitfinex, I'd say.