Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[noobtrader]

wow it seem ppl are waiting for december auction then it will rally or dive   

The price dropped ~50 dollars on June 13, when the previous auction was announced; and immediately recovered when it became known that a single bidder had bought all the coins.  Most people concluded from that fact that the closing price was above market.  Tim Draper's statements further reassured them that the coins would not be dumped on the open market.

I did not see any significant drop this time.  Perhaps the market now assumes that such auctions will have no net effect, and ignores them.

On the other hand, there is no guarantee that all the coins will again be scooped by a single bidder.  So far, Tim Draper got a huge paper loss on that purchase, and it seems that he will only enter a syndicate this time (meaning that he intends to bid for less than one lot).  Some of these 50'000 coins may be bought, well below-market, by short-term traders who will promptly dump them for quick profit.  If the coins go to several bidders, the mere suspicion that some may be dumpers may be enough to trigger a drop.

so the next 144 hours are critical to bitcoin... !!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[janos666]

wow it seem ppl are waiting for december auction then it will rally or dive  

The price dropped ~50 dollars on June 13, when the previous auction was announced; and immediately recovered when it became known that a single bidder had bought all the coins.  Most people concluded from that fact that the closing price was above market.  Tim Draper's statements further reassured them that the coins would not be dumped on the open market.

I did not see any significant drop this time.  Perhaps the market now assumes that such auctions will have no net effect, and ignores them.

On the other hand, there is no guarantee that all the coins will again be scooped by a single bidder.  So far, Tim Draper got a huge paper loss on that purchase, and it seems that he will only enter a syndicate this time (meaning that he intends to bid for less than one lot).  Some of these 50'000 coins may be bought, well below-market, by short-term traders who will promptly dump them for quick profit.  If the coins go to several bidders, the mere suspicion that some may be dumpers may be enough to trigger a drop.

so the next 144 hours are critical to bitcoin... !!!!

How long after the last auction did Draper actually receive his coins? I would guess it took a few days (if not a week or more).

[coinableS]

How long after the last auction did Draper actually receive his coins? I would guess it took a few days (if not a week or more).

I thought it was pretty quick, and didn't they send it with zero fee as well? Or am I thinking of something else?

[noobtrader]

wow it seem ppl are waiting for december auction then it will rally or dive  

The price dropped ~50 dollars on June 13, when the previous auction was announced; and immediately recovered when it became known that a single bidder had bought all the coins.  Most people concluded from that fact that the closing price was above market.  Tim Draper's statements further reassured them that the coins would not be dumped on the open market.

I did not see any significant drop this time.  Perhaps the market now assumes that such auctions will have no net effect, and ignores them.

On the other hand, there is no guarantee that all the coins will again be scooped by a single bidder.  So far, Tim Draper got a huge paper loss on that purchase, and it seems that he will only enter a syndicate this time (meaning that he intends to bid for less than one lot).  Some of these 50'000 coins may be bought, well below-market, by short-term traders who will promptly dump them for quick profit.  If the coins go to several bidders, the mere suspicion that some may be dumpers may be enough to trigger a drop.

so the next 144 hours are critical to bitcoin... !!!!

How long after the last auction did Draper actually receive his coins? I would guess it took a few days (if not a week or more).

the most important is the auction result... if its seem bad then ppl start dumping right away they dont wait

[bobboooiie]

wow it seem ppl are waiting for december auction then it will rally or dive  

The price dropped ~50 dollars on June 13, when the previous auction was announced; and immediately recovered when it became known that a single bidder had bought all the coins.  Most people concluded from that fact that the closing price was above market.  Tim Draper's statements further reassured them that the coins would not be dumped on the open market.

I did not see any significant drop this time.  Perhaps the market now assumes that such auctions will have no net effect, and ignores them.

On the other hand, there is no guarantee that all the coins will again be scooped by a single bidder.  So far, Tim Draper got a huge paper loss on that purchase, and it seems that he will only enter a syndicate this time (meaning that he intends to bid for less than one lot).  Some of these 50'000 coins may be bought, well below-market, by short-term traders who will promptly dump them for quick profit.  If the coins go to several bidders, the mere suspicion that some may be dumpers may be enough to trigger a drop.

so the next 144 hours are critical to bitcoin... !!!!

How long after the last auction did Draper actually receive his coins? I would guess it took a few days (if not a week or more).

the most important is the auction result... if its seem bad then ppl start dumping right away they dont wait

Well how much will public know actually ?

[AmazonStuff]

wow it seem ppl are waiting for december auction then it will rally or dive  

The price dropped ~50 dollars on June 13, when the previous auction was announced; and immediately recovered when it became known that a single bidder had bought all the coins.  Most people concluded from that fact that the closing price was above market.  Tim Draper's statements further reassured them that the coins would not be dumped on the open market.

I did not see any significant drop this time.  Perhaps the market now assumes that such auctions will have no net effect, and ignores them.

On the other hand, there is no guarantee that all the coins will again be scooped by a single bidder.  So far, Tim Draper got a huge paper loss on that purchase, and it seems that he will only enter a syndicate this time (meaning that he intends to bid for less than one lot).  Some of these 50'000 coins may be bought, well below-market, by short-term traders who will promptly dump them for quick profit.  If the coins go to several bidders, the mere suspicion that some may be dumpers may be enough to trigger a drop.

so the next 144 hours are critical to bitcoin... !!!!

How long after the last auction did Draper actually receive his coins? I would guess it took a few days (if not a week or more).

the most important is the auction result... if its seem bad then ppl start dumping right away they dont wait

Well how much will public know actually ?

"Government is selling BTC" is enough positive information for me, if you understand what I want to say

[SirChiko]

Does anybody know how many coins were seized from SR 2 ?

[NotLambchop]

...
"Government is selling BTC" is enough positive information for me, if you understand what I want to say

It is sorta funny.

1. Take Bitcoin away from Bitcoiners.
2. Sell Bitcoin back to Bitcoiners.
3. PROFIT!
4. GOTO 1.

[JorgeStolfi]

How long after the last auction did Draper actually receive his coins? I would guess it took a few days (if not a week or more).

That is stated in the auction announcement somewhere.  IIRC, after being notified, the winner has a day or two to wire in the payment, then the USMS has a few days more to transfer the coins.  If the winner fails to pay by the established deadline, then the next one is called and given the same time to do so, and so on.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Well how much will public know actually ?

The USMS explicitly says in the announcement that they will not publish any information about the outcome, other than notifying winners and losers privately. 

At least one person (@BurtW, IIRC) filed a FOIA request to get the closing price of the previous auction; but I haven't seen any result from that.

(Seized stuff becomes property of the US government, that is, of the US citizens. One would think that they should have the right to know the price, at least, when some of their property gets sold by the USMS.  But they do not seem to care about their rights when they vote...)

[Erdogan]

Ah, I wish I could automatically filter out every posts which has the "ignore" word in the text. But then I would practically ignore this post of mine as well which could be interpreted like I am schizophrenic.
(I never use the ignore feature on real persons, no matter what. I believe it's there to mute bots which is sometimes handy on some forums but not here.)

Some of that was lost when we transcended from usenet to these web based discussion sites.

[inca]

Ah, I wish I could automatically filter out every posts which has the "ignore" word in the text. But then I would practically ignore this post of mine as well which could be interpreted like I am schizophrenic.
(I never use the ignore feature on real persons, no matter what. I believe it's there to mute bots which is sometimes handy on some forums but not here.)

Some of that was lost when we transcended from usenet to these web based discussion sites.

It is a real shame. It does sour the experience of browsing here and on reddit.com

This weekend has been a real snooze fest. Still managed to get some admin done with the odd glance at the ticker. Roll on December 4th and let's see who takes the coins. Hopefully they will leak the names of the participants again by accident and reveal the Swiss National Bank are bidding.

[coinableS]

Anyone else watching that bot on finex? It's doing 0.21 (~$80) market buys every 7 seconds trying to keep the price up

[Gianluca95]

Any news about the winklevoss Edge trade fund? Price not have any variation and looks like a slow sea . We have to do something to raise price !

[inca]

Anyone else watching that bot on finex? It's doing 0.21 (~$80) market buys every 7 seconds trying to keep the price up

Bots are nothing new. They just do what the buyers and sellers should. That is get the best price for a position.

Edit: Not moving the price with a buy or sell is a bit unusual for bitcoiners to grasp

[Newbie1022]

Anyone else watching that bot on finex? It's doing 0.21 (~$80) market buys every 7 seconds trying to keep the price up

Bots are nothing new. They just do what the buyers and sellers should. That is get the best price for a position.

I think these bots, at least ones so blatant, are bad for the image of BTC. We really do need to get away from bucket-shop exchanges. I, honestly, think we'd have a higher price if the exchanges were more legitimate. That said, in the near term, it has solved the query of whether the price is going up or going down in the near term. So, I'm personally kind of chill with it. But, BFX is a total bucket shop.

[coinableS]

Anyone else watching that bot on finex? It's doing 0.21 (~$80) market buys every 7 seconds trying to keep the price up

Bots are nothing new. They just do what the buyers and sellers should. That is get the best price for a position.

Oh yea I know they're not new. I am speculating that market buy bot combined with that 500 BTC buy wall they keep throwing up and taking down indicates (at least to me) some desperation. Makes me think going short right now might not be a bad idea.

[criptix]

Btw if the us gov would pump btc before their sr auctions would it be considered market manipulation? :C